MU Bear Call Spread Backtest: Daily Options Results | AI Velocity

Daily Bear Call Spread MU

📊 Strategies 📊 Performance Report ➕ Add to My Account
Total P&L
$-54,410
Jan 1 → 2026-10-23
Win Rate
50.0%
20 wins / 20 losses
Total Trades
40
Executed entries
Potential Trading Days
204
Days a trade could occur
Avg P&L / Day
$-267
Across 204 trading days
Avg Annual Profit
$-67,212
Avg daily P&L × 252
Capital Required
$14,081
Avg max loss / trade
Avg Annual Return
-477.3%
Annual profit / avg capital
Profit Factor
0.46
Gross wins / gross losses
Sharpe Ratio
-1.79
Daily × √252 annualised
Max Drawdown
$69,730
Peak-to-trough equity
Payoff Ratio
0.46x
Avg win / avg loss

📈 Equity Curve

⚙️ Strategy Configuration

Ticker
MU
Contracts
10
Structure
Bear Call
Short Call
1.02×P
Long Call
1.05×P
Strike Round
$5
Entry Days
Mon–Fri
Entry Time
9:40 ET
Exit Time
15:45 ET
Expiry
Next Friday
Profit Target
+90%
Stop Loss
-80%

Trade Filters

FilterStatus
Net credit ≥ $0.50✔ Active
MU gapped DOWN ≥ 2.0% vs prior close at 9:40✔ Active
MU 9:30→9:40 rise < 0.3% (no early bullish momentum)✔ Active
Avg net credit collected (traded days)$6.7942 per share
Avg spread width (traded days)$20.88

Strike Construction

LegStrikeActionRole
Short Callround(price × 1.02 / 5) × 5SellOTM call — credit collected, max profit if MU stays below
Long Callround(price × 1.05 / 5) × 5BuyFurther OTM call — caps upside loss

P&L Mechanics

Net credit at open (9:40 ET)Max profit = credit × 100 × 10 (if MU closes below short call)
MU rises above long call strikeMax loss = (width − credit) × 100 × 10
Avg net credit collected$6.7942 per share
Auto-exit profit targetClose if P&L ≥ +90% of max profit
Auto-exit stop lossClose if P&L ≤ −80% of max loss

🚦 Exit Breakdown

Scheduled (15:45 ET)

38

Profit Target +90%

0

Stop Loss −80%

2

Total Trades

40

📊 Win / Loss Analysis

Win Rate Breakdown

Winners (20)50.0%
50.0%
Losers (20)50.0%
50.0%

P&L Breakdown

Average winner+$2,292
Average loser$-5,012
Best trade+$7,220 (2026-07-24)
Worst trade$-18,940 (2026-10-07)
Total gross wins+$45,830
Total gross losses$-100,240

⚠️ Risk Assessment

Max Drawdown

$69,730

Worst Single Loss

$-18,940

Avg Max Loss / Trade

$14,081

Profit Factor

0.46

Sharpe (Annualised)

-1.79

Payoff Ratio

0.46x

💡 Key Insights

❌

Net Loss Period

Total P&L of $-54,410 over 40 trades. MU's upward moves caused the short call strikes to be breached during this period.

⚠️

Auto-Exit Applied at Exit Bar Only

The live script monitors positions every 5 minutes and can exit intraday. This backtest applies +90%/−80% thresholds at the 15:45 ET bar close only, understating how often stops would trigger intraday.

⚠️

MU Spread Width Variability

Strikes are computed as percentages of MU's price (1.02× and 1.05×), rounded to $5. The spread width varies day-to-day as MU's price changes. Monitor width vs. credit collected for risk sizing.

📋 Full Trade Log is not displayed on mobile devices to prevent page freezing. View this report on a desktop browser to see all 40 trades.

📋 Full Trade Log (40 trades)

DateDayExpiryMU Open Sell KBuy KWidth Credit OpenCredit Close P&LCum P&LExit
2026-01-26 Monday 2026-01-30 $385.00 395 405 10 $2.9600 $3.4000 $-440 $-440 SCHED
2026-02-04 Wednesday 2026-02-06 $406.40 415 425 10 $3.4500 $0.6900 +$2,760 +$2,320 SCHED
2026-02-09 Monday 2026-02-13 $377.51 385 395 10 $3.7400 $6.0000 $-2,260 +$60 SCHED
2026-02-10 Tuesday 2026-02-13 $370.13 380 390 10 $3.2200 $3.5000 $-280 $-220 SCHED
2026-02-13 Friday 2026-02-20 $395.76 405 415 10 $3.2300 $5.0100 $-1,780 $-2,000 SCHED
2026-03-03 Tuesday 2026-03-06 $386.27 395 405 10 $3.6500 $2.5300 +$1,120 $-880 SCHED
2026-03-06 Friday 2026-03-13 $381.01 390 400 10 $3.8500 $3.0300 +$820 $-60 SCHED
2026-03-09 Monday 2026-03-13 $362.25 370 380 10 $4.1900 $8.1400 $-3,950 $-4,010 SCHED
2026-03-12 Thursday 2026-03-13 $409.26 415 430 15 $4.0500 $2.5000 +$1,550 $-2,460 SCHED
2026-03-25 Wednesday 2026-03-27 $383.51 390 405 15 $4.0700 $3.4000 +$670 $-1,790 SCHED
2026-03-26 Thursday 2026-03-27 $369.33 375 390 15 $3.6000 $0.5700 +$3,030 +$1,240 SCHED
2026-03-30 Monday 2026-04-10 $345.60 355 365 10 $4.3500 $1.6500 +$2,700 +$3,940 SCHED
2026-03-31 Tuesday 2026-04-10 $313.65 320 330 10 $3.5500 $7.4100 $-3,860 +$80 SCHED
2026-04-02 Thursday 2026-04-10 $341.82 350 360 10 $3.9300 $6.6200 $-2,690 $-2,610 SCHED
2026-04-10 Friday 2026-04-17 $411.62 420 430 10 $3.5900 $3.1200 +$470 $-2,140 SCHED
2026-04-23 Thursday 2026-04-24 $476.55 485 500 15 $3.9000 $2.9500 +$950 $-1,190 SCHED
2026-05-12 Tuesday 2026-05-15 $773.06 790 810 20 $7.3000 $5.4500 +$1,850 +$660 SCHED
2026-05-15 Friday 2026-05-22 $730.76 745 765 20 $6.6500 $7.7800 $-1,130 $-470 SCHED
2026-06-05 Friday 2026-06-12 $946.66 965 995 30 $10.0500 $9.3000 +$750 +$280 SCHED
2026-06-23 Tuesday 2026-06-26 $1074.19 1095 1130 35 $14.8000 $10.6500 +$4,150 +$4,430 SCHED
2026-06-26 Friday 2026-07-10 $1131.84 1155 1190 35 $16.4800 $13.7100 +$2,770 +$7,200 SCHED
2026-07-01 Wednesday 2026-07-10 $1072.45 1095 1125 30 $12.5700 $6.7500 +$5,820 +$13,020 SCHED
2026-07-07 Tuesday 2026-07-10 $924.63 945 970 25 $9.2000 $18.4400 $-9,240 +$3,780 SCHED
2026-07-10 Friday 2026-07-17 $967.49 985 1015 30 $8.3200 $15.2000 $-6,880 $-3,100 SCHED
2026-07-13 Monday 2026-07-17 $909.52 930 955 25 $3.4500 $8.2700 $-4,820 $-7,920 SCHED
2026-07-15 Wednesday 2026-07-17 $958.09 975 1005 30 $7.0000 $4.9400 +$2,060 $-5,860 SCHED
2026-07-17 Friday 2026-07-24 $809.01 825 850 25 $20.0000 $21.5300 $-1,530 $-7,390 SCHED
2026-07-24 Friday 2026-07-31 $951.39 970 1000 30 $19.3200 $12.1000 +$7,220 $-170 SCHED
2026-07-28 Tuesday 2026-07-31 $817.92 835 860 25 $8.4800 $8.6700 $-190 $-360 SCHED
2026-08-03 Monday 2026-08-07 $787.65 805 825 20 $7.1200 $14.4000 $-7,280 $-7,640 SCHED
2026-08-24 Monday 2026-08-28 $907.92 925 955 30 $5.3000 $9.1600 $-3,860 $-11,500 SCHED
2026-09-01 Tuesday 2026-09-04 $939.10 960 985 25 $6.4500 $5.7000 +$750 $-10,750 SCHED
2026-09-03 Thursday 2026-09-04 $930.12 950 975 25 $4.2800 $9.6000 $-5,320 $-16,070 SCHED
2026-09-10 Thursday 2026-09-11 $994.38 1015 1045 30 $5.8100 $2.6200 +$3,190 $-12,880 SCHED
2026-09-14 Monday 2026-09-18 $904.86 925 950 25 $7.9000 $10.8900 $-2,990 $-15,870 SCHED
2026-09-24 Thursday 2026-09-25 $1049.04 1070 1100 30 $5.0200 $11.1000 $-6,080 $-21,950 SCHED
2026-10-07 Wednesday 2026-10-09 $1014.35 1035 1065 30 $6.7100 $25.6500 $-18,940 $-40,890 ✗ SL80
2026-10-12 Monday 2026-10-16 $996.53 1015 1045 30 $7.5000 $6.6000 +$900 $-39,990 SCHED
2026-10-15 Thursday 2026-10-16 $866.58 885 910 25 $5.7800 $22.5000 $-16,720 $-56,710 ✗ SL80
2026-10-16 Friday 2026-10-23 $905.33 925 950 25 $6.9500 $4.6500 +$2,300 $-54,410 SCHED