DJX Daily Iron Butterfly Backtest | AI Velocity

Daily Iron Butterfly DJX

Total P&L
+$35,080
Jan 1 → 2026-09-15
Win Rate
54.7%
29 wins / 23 losses
Total Trades
53
Mon–Fri daily entries
Potential Trading Days
176
Days a trade could occur
Avg P&L / Day
+$199
Across 176 trading days
Avg Annual Profit
+$50,228
Avg daily P&L × 252
Capital Required
$20,499
Avg max loss / trade
Avg Annual Return
245.0%
Annual profit / avg capital
Profit Factor
1.51
Gross wins / gross losses
Sharpe Ratio
2.32
Daily × √252 annualised
Max Drawdown
$26,000
Peak-to-trough equity
Payoff Ratio
1.20x
Avg win / avg loss

📈 Equity Curve

⚙️ Strategy Configuration

Ticker
DJX
Contracts
40
Structure
Iron Butterfly
Wing Width
±$10
Entry Days
Mon–Fri
Entry Time
9:40 ET
Exit Time
14:20 ET
Expiry
Next Friday
Profit Target
+90%
Stop Loss
-80%

Trade Filters

FilterStatus
Credit ratio ≥ 0.25 (2.50/wing)✔ Active
Net credit ≥ $1.00✔ Active
Straddle ≥ 0.8% of DJX✔ Active
Straddle ≤ 1.5% of DJX✔ Active
Overnight gap ≤ 1.5% of prior close✔ Active
Prior-day move ≤ 60% of wing (≤$6.00)✔ Active
Avg credit ratio (traded days)0.488 (4.88/10)
Avg straddle % of DJX (traded days)1.125%

Strike Construction

LegStrikeActionRole
Long PutATM − $10BuyOuter put wing — defines max loss on downside
Short PutATMSellATM short — max profit zone (butterfly body)
Short CallATMSellATM short — max profit zone (butterfly body)
Long CallATM + $10BuyOuter call wing — defines max loss on upside

P&L Mechanics

Net credit at open (9:40 ET)Max profit = credit × 100 × 40 (at expiry if DJX = ATM)
DJX moves > $10 from ATMMax loss = ($10 − credit) × 100 × 40
Avg net credit collected$4.8753 per share
Auto-exit profit targetClose if P&L ≥ +90% of max profit
Auto-exit stop lossClose if P&L ≤ −80% of max profit

🚦 Exit Breakdown

Scheduled (14:20 ET)

53

Profit Target +90%

0

Stop Loss −80%

0

Total Trades

53

📊 Win / Loss Analysis

Win Rate Breakdown

Winners (29)54.7%
54.7%
Losers (23)45.3%
45.3%

P&L Breakdown

Average winner+$3,564
Average loser$-2,969
Best trade+$15,120 (2026-04-21)
Worst trade$-12,240 (2026-03-02)
Total gross wins+$103,360
Total gross losses$-68,280

⚠️ Risk Assessment

Max Drawdown

$26,000

Worst Single Loss

$-12,240

Avg Max Loss / Trade

$20,499

Profit Factor

1.51

Sharpe (Annualised)

2.32

Payoff Ratio

1.20x

💡 Key Insights

✅

Profitable Strategy

Total P&L of +$35,080 over 53 trades across Jan–2026-09-15. The iron butterfly's ATM structure collects short-term premium on DJX, a large-cap Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF with implied vol similar in character to SPY.

⚠️

Auto-Exit Applied at Exit Bar Only

The live script (if deployed) would monitor positions every 5 minutes and can exit intraday. This backtest applies +90%/−80% thresholds at the 14:20 ET bar close only, understating how often stops would trigger intraday. Real performance may differ.

⚠️

DJX Volatility Consideration

DJX (Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF — 30 large-cap blue chips) trades a profile very close to SPY — $1 strike increments and an ATM weekly straddle (~0.8% of price) squarely within SPY's own ~0.75–1.2% range. Concentration in 30 names means single-stock earnings surprises can move DJX more than a broader 500-name index, so a ±$10 wing still carries real gap/whipsaw risk. Treat this as a close cousin of the SPY strategy, not a substitute for it.

📋 Full Trade Log is not displayed on mobile devices to prevent page freezing. View this report on a desktop browser to see all 53 trades.

📋 Full Trade Log (53 trades)

DateDayExpiryDJX OpenATM LP/SP/SC/LCCredit OpenCr/WingStraddle%Credit Close P&LCum P&LExit
2026-01-05 Monday 2026-01-09 $487.30 485 475/485/485/495 $6.7200 0.672 1.439% $6.6100 +$440 +$440 SCHED
2026-01-06 Tuesday 2026-01-09 $489.30 490 480/490/490/500 $4.3600 0.436 0.924% $5.0900 $-2,920 $-2,480 SCHED
2026-01-07 Wednesday 2026-01-09 $493.94 495 485/495/495/505 $3.5100 0.351 0.763% $5.1100 $-6,400 $-8,880 SCHED
2026-01-09 Friday 2026-01-16 $493.33 495 485/495/495/505 $5.6400 0.564 1.338% $4.7800 +$3,440 $-5,440 SCHED
2026-01-12 Monday 2026-01-16 $491.03 490 480/490/490/500 $5.9500 0.595 1.387% $6.0900 $-560 $-6,000 SCHED
2026-01-14 Wednesday 2026-01-16 $490.26 490 480/490/490/500 $4.1500 0.415 0.934% $3.8000 +$1,400 $-4,600 SCHED
2026-01-15 Thursday 2026-01-16 $492.44 490 480/490/490/500 $3.8900 0.389 0.810% $4.7100 $-3,280 $-7,880 SCHED
2026-01-16 Friday 2026-01-23 $493.35 495 485/495/495/505 $4.0800 0.408 0.995% $4.4600 $-1,520 $-9,400 SCHED
2026-01-20 Tuesday 2026-01-23 $486.20 485 475/485/485/495 $3.6400 0.364 0.905% $3.8600 $-880 $-10,280 SCHED
2026-01-21 Wednesday 2026-01-23 $485.93 485 475/485/485/495 $5.9400 0.594 1.325% $6.4000 $-1,840 $-12,120 SCHED
2026-01-27 Tuesday 2026-01-30 $488.66 490 480/490/490/500 $4.5700 0.457 1.099% $4.7400 $-680 $-12,800 SCHED
2026-01-28 Wednesday 2026-01-30 $489.44 490 480/490/490/500 $5.0900 0.509 1.148% $4.2400 +$3,400 $-9,400 SCHED
2026-02-02 Monday 2026-02-06 $489.32 490 480/490/490/500 $5.9200 0.592 1.359% $5.6100 +$1,240 $-8,160 SCHED
2026-02-03 Tuesday 2026-02-06 $494.62 495 485/495/495/505 $3.8000 0.380 0.849% $2.9900 +$3,240 $-4,920 SCHED
2026-02-04 Wednesday 2026-02-06 $493.79 495 485/495/495/505 $4.8900 0.489 1.071% $4.1900 +$2,800 $-2,120 SCHED
2026-02-05 Thursday 2026-02-06 $490.97 490 480/490/490/500 $5.1400 0.514 1.118% $4.2900 +$3,400 +$1,280 SCHED
2026-02-11 Wednesday 2026-02-13 $503.34 505 495/505/505/515 $6.2600 0.626 1.317% $4.9000 +$5,440 +$6,720 SCHED
2026-02-17 Tuesday 2026-02-20 $495.12 495 485/495/495/505 $6.2500 0.625 1.436% $5.5700 +$2,720 +$9,440 SCHED
2026-02-18 Wednesday 2026-02-20 $495.89 495 485/495/495/505 $5.8900 0.589 1.262% $4.7300 +$4,640 +$14,080 SCHED
2026-02-19 Thursday 2026-02-20 $493.27 495 485/495/495/505 $3.6800 0.368 0.797% $3.6800 +$0 +$14,080 SCHED
2026-02-23 Monday 2026-02-27 $494.87 495 485/495/495/505 $5.2900 0.529 1.354% $4.8600 +$1,720 +$15,800 SCHED
2026-03-02 Monday 2026-03-06 $484.57 485 475/485/485/495 $4.2700 0.427 1.395% $7.3300 $-12,240 +$3,560 SCHED
2026-03-04 Wednesday 2026-03-06 $483.80 485 475/485/485/495 $5.1900 0.519 1.232% $4.9400 +$1,000 +$4,560 SCHED
2026-03-05 Thursday 2026-03-06 $483.84 485 475/485/485/495 $4.1700 0.417 0.934% $6.7800 $-10,440 $-5,880 SCHED
2026-03-11 Wednesday 2026-03-13 $475.97 475 465/475/475/485 $3.7000 0.370 1.008% $4.7800 $-4,320 $-10,200 SCHED
2026-03-12 Thursday 2026-03-13 $468.57 470 460/470/470/480 $4.7800 0.478 1.193% $3.1300 +$6,600 $-3,600 SCHED
2026-03-18 Wednesday 2026-03-20 $468.38 470 460/470/470/480 $4.7400 0.474 1.294% $4.5600 +$720 $-2,880 SCHED
2026-03-25 Wednesday 2026-03-27 $465.34 465 455/465/465/475 $5.6900 0.569 1.429% $5.7100 $-80 $-2,960 SCHED
2026-04-15 Wednesday 2026-04-17 $485.53 485 475/485/485/495 $3.5100 0.351 0.803% $3.8100 $-1,200 $-4,160 SCHED
2026-04-21 Tuesday 2026-04-24 $495.58 495 485/495/495/505 $6.2000 0.620 1.463% $2.4200 +$15,120 +$10,960 SCHED
2026-05-04 Monday 2026-05-08 $492.45 490 480/490/490/500 $4.5200 0.452 1.095% $4.8700 $-1,400 +$9,560 SCHED
2026-05-11 Monday 2026-05-15 $494.08 495 485/495/495/505 $5.5800 0.558 1.334% $5.3100 +$1,080 +$10,640 SCHED
2026-05-13 Wednesday 2026-05-15 $493.77 495 485/495/495/505 $3.5400 0.354 0.768% $3.3800 +$640 +$11,280 SCHED
2026-05-14 Thursday 2026-05-15 $499.22 500 490/500/500/510 $3.9500 0.395 0.807% $2.0500 +$7,600 +$18,880 SCHED
2026-05-19 Tuesday 2026-05-22 $492.68 495 485/495/495/505 $5.1400 0.514 1.187% $4.7400 +$1,600 +$20,480 SCHED
2026-05-22 Friday 2026-05-29 $505.00 505 495/505/505/515 $6.0300 0.603 1.477% $6.1100 $-320 +$20,160 SCHED
2026-05-27 Wednesday 2026-05-29 $505.32 505 495/505/505/515 $3.7400 0.374 0.881% $3.8000 $-240 +$19,920 SCHED
2026-05-29 Friday 2026-06-05 $507.57 510 500/510/510/520 $5.5100 0.551 1.273% $4.9900 +$2,080 +$22,000 SCHED
2026-06-02 Tuesday 2026-06-05 $511.63 510 500/510/510/520 $3.8600 0.386 0.827% $5.2000 $-5,360 +$16,640 SCHED
2026-06-03 Wednesday 2026-06-05 $510.73 510 500/510/510/520 $4.4500 0.445 0.901% $3.6900 +$3,040 +$19,680 SCHED
2026-06-05 Friday 2026-06-12 $514.48 515 505/515/515/525 $5.9400 0.594 1.458% $6.8900 $-3,800 +$15,880 SCHED
2026-06-25 Thursday 2026-06-26 $520.72 520 510/520/520/530 $4.7300 0.473 0.991% $2.9400 +$7,160 +$23,040 SCHED
2026-07-07 Tuesday 2026-07-10 $529.58 530 520/530/530/540 $4.5000 0.450 0.906% $3.7100 +$3,160 +$26,200 SCHED
2026-07-13 Monday 2026-07-17 $525.60 525 515/525/525/535 $5.4200 0.542 1.233% $5.8500 $-1,720 +$24,480 SCHED
2026-07-16 Thursday 2026-07-17 $525.62 525 515/525/525/535 $4.0000 0.400 0.786% $1.5300 +$9,880 +$34,360 SCHED
2026-07-20 Monday 2026-07-24 $521.09 520 510/520/520/530 $4.8800 0.488 1.103% $5.2000 $-1,280 +$33,080 SCHED
2026-07-28 Tuesday 2026-07-31 $523.46 525 515/525/525/535 $6.3800 0.638 1.356% $5.1700 +$4,840 +$37,920 SCHED
2026-07-29 Wednesday 2026-07-31 $521.52 520 510/520/520/530 $4.2700 0.427 1.014% $3.8100 +$1,840 +$39,760 SCHED
2026-08-04 Tuesday 2026-08-07 $536.69 535 525/535/535/545 $3.7700 0.377 0.995% $5.1300 $-5,440 +$34,320 SCHED
2026-08-05 Wednesday 2026-08-07 $544.03 545 535/545/545/555 $4.7000 0.470 1.005% $4.2400 +$1,840 +$36,160 SCHED
2026-09-11 Friday 2026-09-18 $524.39 525 515/525/525/535 $5.5500 0.555 1.373% $5.8000 $-1,000 +$35,160 SCHED
2026-09-14 Monday 2026-09-18 $523.87 525 515/525/525/535 $5.4900 0.549 1.241% $5.1700 +$1,280 +$36,440 SCHED
2026-09-15 Tuesday 2026-09-18 $522.07 520 510/520/520/530 $5.5300 0.553 1.245% $5.8700 $-1,360 +$35,080 SCHED