NVDA Iron Butterfly Backtest: Daily Options Strategy | AI Velocity

Daily Iron Butterfly NVDA

Total P&L
+$1,980
Jan 1 → 2026-07-22
Win Rate
68.2%
15 wins / 7 losses
Total Trades
22
Mon–Fri daily entries
Potential Trading Days
138
Days a trade could occur
Avg P&L / Day
+$14
Across 138 trading days
Avg Annual Profit
+$3,616
Avg daily P&L × 252
Capital Required
$4,859
Avg max loss / trade
Avg Annual Return
74.4%
Annual profit / avg capital
Profit Factor
1.54
Gross wins / gross losses
Sharpe Ratio
2.66
Daily × √252 annualised
Max Drawdown
$2,540
Peak-to-trough equity
Payoff Ratio
0.72x
Avg win / avg loss

📈 Equity Curve

⚙️ Strategy Configuration

Ticker
QQQ
Contracts
40
Structure
Iron Butterfly
Wing Width
±$10
Entry Days
Mon–Fri
Entry Time
9:40 ET
Exit Time
14:20 ET
Expiry
Next Friday
Profit Target
+90%
Stop Loss
-80%

Trade Filters

FilterStatus
None — all days traded
Avg credit ratio (traded days)0.514 (5.14/10)
Avg straddle % of QQQ (traded days)3.211%

Strike Construction

LegStrikeActionRole
Long PutATM − $10BuyOuter put wing — defines max loss on downside
Short PutATMSellATM short — max profit zone (butterfly body)
Short CallATMSellATM short — max profit zone (butterfly body)
Long CallATM + $10BuyOuter call wing — defines max loss on upside

P&L Mechanics

Net credit at open (9:40 ET)Max profit = credit × 100 × 40 (at expiry if QQQ = ATM)
QQQ moves > $10 from ATMMax loss = ($10 − credit) × 100 × 40
Avg net credit collected$5.1414 per share
Auto-exit profit targetClose if P&L ≥ +90% of max profit
Auto-exit stop lossClose if P&L ≤ −80% of max profit

🚦 Exit Breakdown

Scheduled (14:20 ET)

22

Profit Target +90%

0

Stop Loss −80%

0

Total Trades

22

📊 Win / Loss Analysis

Win Rate Breakdown

Winners (15)68.2%
68.2%
Losers (7)31.8%
31.8%

P&L Breakdown

Average winner+$377
Average loser$-524
Best trade+$730 (2026-02-05)
Worst trade$-1,160 (2026-03-26)
Total gross wins+$5,650
Total gross losses$-3,670

⚠️ Risk Assessment

Max Drawdown

$2,540

Worst Single Loss

$-1,160

Avg Max Loss / Trade

$4,859

Profit Factor

1.54

Sharpe (Annualised)

2.66

Payoff Ratio

0.72x

💡 Key Insights

✅

Profitable Strategy

Total P&L of +$1,980 over 22 trades across Jan–2026-07-22. The iron butterfly's ATM structure collects short-term premium on QQQ, a highly liquid ETF with excellent OPRA data coverage.

⚠️

Auto-Exit Applied at Exit Bar Only

The live script monitors positions every 5 minutes and can exit intraday. This backtest applies +90%/−80% thresholds at the 14:20 ET bar close only, understating how often stops would trigger intraday. Real performance may differ.

⚠️

QQQ Wing Width Consideration

With QQQ trading near $400–500, a ±$10 wing is a relatively narrow ~1.7% range. In high-volatility periods QQQ can easily move more than $10 intraday, frequently triggering max loss. Consider widening wings (±$15–$25) or reducing QTY for live trading.

📋 Full Trade Log is not displayed on mobile devices to prevent page freezing. View this report on a desktop browser to see all 22 trades.

📋 Full Trade Log (22 trades)

DateDayExpiryQQQ OpenATM LP/SP/SC/LCCredit OpenCr/WingStraddle%Credit Close P&LCum P&LExit
2026-01-06 Tuesday 2026-01-09 $190.49 190 180/190/190/200 $5.1600 0.516 3.082% $4.9000 +$260 +$260 SCHED
2026-01-13 Tuesday 2026-01-16 $184.87 185 175/185/185/195 $4.7400 0.474 2.845% $4.6200 +$120 +$380 SCHED
2026-01-14 Wednesday 2026-01-16 $182.46 182 172/182/182/192 $4.4900 0.449 2.696% $3.7700 +$720 +$1,100 SCHED
2026-01-16 Friday 2026-01-23 $190.25 190 180/190/190/200 $5.5400 0.554 3.511% $5.2500 +$290 +$1,390 SCHED
2026-01-20 Tuesday 2026-01-23 $180.49 180 170/180/180/190 $5.5900 0.559 3.712% $5.2200 +$370 +$1,760 SCHED
2026-01-22 Thursday 2026-01-23 $185.26 185 175/185/185/195 $3.3800 0.338 1.895% $2.7000 +$680 +$2,440 SCHED
2026-02-05 Thursday 2026-02-06 $175.19 175 165/175/175/185 $4.9400 0.494 3.191% $4.2100 +$730 +$3,170 SCHED
2026-02-09 Monday 2026-02-13 $189.51 190 180/190/190/200 $6.1800 0.618 4.301% $5.9000 +$280 +$3,450 SCHED
2026-02-10 Tuesday 2026-02-13 $190.16 190 180/190/190/200 $5.3800 0.538 3.434% $5.4200 $-40 +$3,410 SCHED
2026-03-13 Friday 2026-03-20 $184.89 185 175/185/185/195 $6.4600 0.646 4.954% $6.4700 $-10 +$3,400 SCHED
2026-03-24 Tuesday 2026-03-27 $175.14 175 165/175/175/185 $5.0500 0.505 3.209% $4.6900 +$360 +$3,760 SCHED
2026-03-25 Wednesday 2026-03-27 $179.56 180 170/180/180/190 $3.9900 0.399 2.356% $3.4600 +$530 +$4,290 SCHED
2026-03-26 Thursday 2026-03-27 $175.46 175 165/175/175/185 $3.2700 0.327 1.921% $4.4300 $-1,160 +$3,130 SCHED
2026-04-10 Friday 2026-04-17 $185.26 185 175/185/185/195 $5.2500 0.525 3.384% $6.2300 $-980 +$2,150 SCHED
2026-04-20 Monday 2026-04-24 $199.56 200 190/200/200/210 $5.3400 0.534 3.142% $5.2600 +$80 +$2,230 SCHED
2026-04-22 Wednesday 2026-04-24 $200.02 200 190/200/200/210 $4.1600 0.416 2.245% $4.3300 $-170 +$2,060 SCHED
2026-05-04 Monday 2026-05-08 $200.28 200 190/200/200/210 $5.9400 0.594 3.745% $5.4400 +$500 +$2,560 SCHED
2026-05-26 Tuesday 2026-05-29 $215.36 215 205/215/215/225 $5.7500 0.575 3.436% $5.3400 +$410 +$2,970 SCHED
2026-06-01 Monday 2026-06-05 $220.19 220 210/220/220/230 $6.6500 0.665 4.337% $6.5600 +$90 +$3,060 SCHED
2026-06-04 Thursday 2026-06-05 $215.05 215 205/215/215/225 $4.4800 0.448 2.362% $5.4800 $-1,000 +$2,060 SCHED
2026-06-09 Tuesday 2026-06-12 $209.74 210 200/210/210/220 $5.6400 0.564 3.266% $5.9500 $-310 +$1,750 SCHED
2026-07-06 Monday 2026-07-10 $195.38 195 185/195/195/205 $5.7300 0.573 3.629% $5.5000 +$230 +$1,980 SCHED