SPXW Daily Iron Butterfly Backtest | AI Velocity

Daily Iron Butterfly SPXW

Total P&L
+$51,292
Jan 1 → 2026-09-15
Win Rate
53.2%
42 wins / 37 losses
Total Trades
79
Mon–Fri daily entries
Potential Trading Days
176
Days a trade could occur
Avg P&L / Day
+$291
Across 176 trading days
Avg Annual Profit
+$73,441
Avg daily P&L × 252
Capital Required
$14,822
Avg max loss / trade
Avg Annual Return
495.5%
Annual profit / avg capital
Profit Factor
1.38
Gross wins / gross losses
Sharpe Ratio
1.74
Daily × √252 annualised
Max Drawdown
$42,508
Peak-to-trough equity
Payoff Ratio
1.22x
Avg win / avg loss

📈 Equity Curve

⚙️ Strategy Configuration

Ticker
SPXW
Contracts
4
Structure
Iron Butterfly
Wing Width
±$100
Entry Days
Mon–Fri
Entry Time
9:40 ET
Exit Time
14:20 ET
Expiry
Next Friday
Profit Target
+90%
Stop Loss
-80%

Trade Filters

FilterStatus
Credit ratio ≥ 0.15 (15.00/wing)✔ Active
Net credit ≥ $1.00✔ Active
Straddle ≥ 0.8% of SPXW✔ Active
Straddle ≤ 3.0% of SPXW✔ Active
Overnight gap ≤ 0.5% of prior close✔ Active
Prior-day move ≤ 45% of wing (≤$45.00)✔ Active
Avg credit ratio (traded days)0.630 (63.04/100)
Avg straddle % of SPXW (traded days)1.205%

Strike Construction

LegStrikeActionRole
Long PutATM − $100BuyOuter put wing — defines max loss on downside
Short PutATMSellATM short — max profit zone (butterfly body)
Short CallATMSellATM short — max profit zone (butterfly body)
Long CallATM + $100BuyOuter call wing — defines max loss on upside

P&L Mechanics

Net credit at open (9:40 ET)Max profit = credit × 100 × 4 (at expiry if SPXW = ATM)
SPXW moves > $100 from ATMMax loss = ($100 − credit) × 100 × 4
Avg net credit collected$63.0367 per share
Auto-exit profit targetClose if P&L ≥ +90% of max profit
Auto-exit stop lossClose if P&L ≤ −80% of max profit

🚦 Exit Breakdown

Scheduled (14:20 ET)

79

Profit Target +90%

0

Stop Loss −80%

0

Total Trades

79

📊 Win / Loss Analysis

Win Rate Breakdown

Winners (42)53.2%
53.2%
Losers (37)46.8%
46.8%

P&L Breakdown

Average winner+$4,404
Average loser$-3,612
Best trade+$24,904 (2026-03-11)
Worst trade$-11,328 (2026-07-02)
Total gross wins+$184,952
Total gross losses$-133,660

⚠️ Risk Assessment

Max Drawdown

$42,508

Worst Single Loss

$-11,328

Avg Max Loss / Trade

$14,822

Profit Factor

1.38

Sharpe (Annualised)

1.74

Payoff Ratio

1.22x

💡 Key Insights

✅

Profitable Strategy

Total P&L of +$51,292 over 79 trades across Jan–2026-09-15. The iron butterfly's ATM structure collects short-term premium on SPXW, a large-cap Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF with implied vol similar in character to SPY.

⚠️

Auto-Exit Applied at Exit Bar Only

The live script (if deployed) would monitor positions every 5 minutes and can exit intraday. This backtest applies +90%/−80% thresholds at the 14:20 ET bar close only, understating how often stops would trigger intraday. Real performance may differ.

⚠️

SPXW Volatility Consideration

SPXW (Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF — 30 large-cap blue chips) trades a profile very close to SPY — $1 strike increments and an ATM weekly straddle (~0.8% of price) squarely within SPY's own ~0.75–1.2% range. Concentration in 30 names means single-stock earnings surprises can move SPXW more than a broader 500-name index, so a ±$100 wing still carries real gap/whipsaw risk. Treat this as a close cousin of the SPY strategy, not a substitute for it.

📋 Full Trade Log is not displayed on mobile devices to prevent page freezing. View this report on a desktop browser to see all 79 trades.

📋 Full Trade Log (79 trades)

DateDayExpirySPXW OpenATM LP/SP/SC/LCCredit OpenCr/WingStraddle%Credit Close P&LCum P&LExit
2026-01-02 Friday 2026-01-09 $6873.56 6875 6775/6875/6875/6975 $61.3900 0.614 1.233% $58.0000 +$1,356 +$1,356 SCHED
2026-01-06 Tuesday 2026-01-09 $6910.71 6910 6810/6910/6910/7010 $51.5900 0.516 0.893% $61.9300 $-4,136 $-2,780 SCHED
2026-01-07 Wednesday 2026-01-09 $6953.19 6955 6855/6955/6955/7055 $47.1000 0.471 0.754% $37.7800 +$3,728 +$948 SCHED
2026-01-09 Friday 2026-01-16 $6948.67 6950 6850/6950/6950/7050 $69.8100 0.698 1.370% $59.2200 +$4,236 +$5,184 SCHED
2026-01-12 Monday 2026-01-16 $6957.00 6955 6855/6955/6955/7055 $60.3900 0.604 1.107% $64.6000 $-1,684 +$3,500 SCHED
2026-01-13 Tuesday 2026-01-16 $6987.13 6985 6885/6985/6985/7085 $49.0000 0.490 0.860% $47.7700 +$492 +$3,992 SCHED
2026-01-14 Wednesday 2026-01-16 $6934.91 6935 6835/6935/6935/7035 $58.3000 0.583 0.972% $37.6400 +$8,264 +$12,256 SCHED
2026-01-16 Friday 2026-01-23 $6967.05 6965 6865/6965/6965/7065 $60.4600 0.605 1.095% $55.2000 +$2,104 +$14,360 SCHED
2026-01-23 Friday 2026-01-30 $6903.03 6905 6805/6905/6905/7005 $68.1000 0.681 1.537% $75.9600 $-3,144 +$11,216 SCHED
2026-01-26 Monday 2026-01-30 $6946.06 6945 6845/6945/6945/7045 $57.4200 0.574 1.290% $59.5500 $-852 +$10,364 SCHED
2026-01-27 Tuesday 2026-01-30 $6965.14 6965 6865/6965/6965/7065 $58.2600 0.583 1.080% $56.1400 +$848 +$11,212 SCHED
2026-01-28 Wednesday 2026-01-30 $7000.94 7000 6900/7000/7000/7100 $55.1600 0.552 0.957% $43.7000 +$4,584 +$15,796 SCHED
2026-01-30 Friday 2026-02-06 $6964.13 6965 6865/6965/6965/7065 $66.1000 0.661 1.802% $65.5500 +$220 +$16,016 SCHED
2026-02-02 Monday 2026-02-06 $6948.77 6950 6850/6950/6950/7050 $107.3000 1.073 1.948% $70.6400 +$14,664 +$30,680 SCHED
2026-02-03 Tuesday 2026-02-06 $6986.73 6985 6885/6985/6985/7085 $60.8500 0.609 1.088% $69.0200 $-3,268 +$27,412 SCHED
2026-02-10 Tuesday 2026-02-13 $6972.22 6970 6870/6970/6970/7070 $61.9800 0.620 1.178% $55.1000 +$2,752 +$30,164 SCHED
2026-02-11 Wednesday 2026-02-13 $6981.11 6980 6880/6980/6980/7080 $52.8700 0.529 0.892% $57.0900 $-1,688 +$28,476 SCHED
2026-02-17 Tuesday 2026-02-20 $6853.57 6855 6755/6855/6855/6955 $98.0200 0.980 1.933% $72.5600 +$10,184 +$38,660 SCHED
2026-02-18 Wednesday 2026-02-20 $6871.25 6870 6770/6870/6870/6970 $67.5000 0.675 1.317% $65.1700 +$932 +$39,592 SCHED
2026-02-19 Thursday 2026-02-20 $6865.52 6865 6765/6865/6865/6965 $59.1900 0.592 1.091% $53.1000 +$2,436 +$42,028 SCHED
2026-02-20 Friday 2026-02-27 $6867.58 6870 6770/6870/6870/6970 $82.5000 0.825 2.013% $76.5200 +$2,392 +$44,420 SCHED
2026-02-26 Thursday 2026-02-27 $6950.73 6950 6850/6950/6950/7050 $47.7000 0.477 0.810% $64.3400 $-6,656 +$37,764 SCHED
2026-03-05 Thursday 2026-03-06 $6865.02 6865 6765/6865/6865/6965 $64.7100 0.647 1.186% $21.7500 +$17,184 +$54,948 SCHED
2026-03-11 Wednesday 2026-03-13 $6812.30 6810 6710/6810/6810/6910 $79.4000 0.794 1.760% $17.1400 +$24,904 +$79,852 SCHED
2026-03-18 Wednesday 2026-03-20 $6718.81 6720 6620/6720/6720/6820 $58.7300 0.587 1.182% $82.9600 $-9,692 +$70,160 SCHED
2026-04-09 Thursday 2026-04-10 $6779.56 6780 6680/6780/6780/6880 $47.2300 0.472 0.803% $58.9500 $-4,688 +$65,472 SCHED
2026-04-13 Monday 2026-04-17 $6799.85 6800 6700/6800/6800/6900 $69.4000 0.694 1.520% $62.2300 +$2,868 +$68,340 SCHED
2026-04-20 Monday 2026-04-24 $7115.57 7115 7015/7115/7115/7215 $84.9100 0.849 1.644% $68.0200 +$6,756 +$75,096 SCHED
2026-04-21 Tuesday 2026-04-24 $7120.19 7120 7020/7120/7120/7220 $67.5000 0.675 1.351% $67.9200 $-168 +$74,928 SCHED
2026-04-23 Thursday 2026-04-24 $7132.34 7130 7030/7130/7130/7230 $47.4700 0.475 0.763% $46.4500 +$408 +$75,336 SCHED
2026-04-24 Friday 2026-05-01 $7133.04 7135 7035/7135/7135/7235 $71.5900 0.716 1.799% $79.7000 $-3,244 +$72,092 SCHED
2026-04-27 Monday 2026-05-01 $7173.81 7175 7075/7175/7175/7275 $70.3000 0.703 1.513% $72.4500 $-860 +$71,232 SCHED
2026-04-28 Tuesday 2026-05-01 $7150.11 7150 7050/7150/7150/7250 $57.0800 0.571 1.270% $59.2000 $-848 +$70,384 SCHED
2026-04-29 Wednesday 2026-05-01 $7134.85 7135 7035/7135/7135/7235 $59.6900 0.597 1.187% $59.7500 $-24 +$70,360 SCHED
2026-04-30 Thursday 2026-05-01 $7148.25 7150 7050/7150/7150/7250 $56.6000 0.566 0.943% $63.4500 $-2,740 +$67,620 SCHED
2026-05-04 Monday 2026-05-08 $7227.94 7230 7130/7230/7230/7330 $57.9600 0.580 1.240% $64.8200 $-2,744 +$64,876 SCHED
2026-05-08 Friday 2026-05-15 $7380.33 7380 7280/7380/7380/7480 $73.3900 0.734 1.480% $71.1600 +$892 +$65,768 SCHED
2026-05-11 Monday 2026-05-15 $7406.79 7405 7305/7405/7405/7505 $64.8900 0.649 1.289% $69.1600 $-1,708 +$64,060 SCHED
2026-05-12 Tuesday 2026-05-15 $7391.42 7390 7290/7390/7390/7490 $62.1900 0.622 1.134% $53.8700 +$3,328 +$67,388 SCHED
2026-05-13 Wednesday 2026-05-15 $7398.65 7400 7300/7400/7400/7500 $56.6900 0.567 0.965% $68.4000 $-4,684 +$62,704 SCHED
2026-05-18 Monday 2026-05-22 $7418.03 7420 7320/7420/7420/7520 $54.1700 0.542 1.215% $59.8100 $-2,256 +$60,448 SCHED
2026-05-19 Tuesday 2026-05-22 $7385.20 7385 7285/7385/7385/7485 $79.5000 0.795 1.531% $72.2100 +$2,916 +$63,364 SCHED
2026-05-20 Wednesday 2026-05-22 $7379.77 7380 7280/7380/7380/7480 $55.8500 0.558 1.064% $70.2200 $-5,748 +$57,616 SCHED
2026-05-27 Wednesday 2026-05-29 $7536.63 7535 7435/7535/7535/7635 $58.7100 0.587 0.944% $57.8000 +$364 +$57,980 SCHED
2026-06-01 Monday 2026-06-05 $7593.97 7595 7495/7595/7595/7695 $52.6000 0.526 1.003% $64.0000 $-4,560 +$53,420 SCHED
2026-06-02 Tuesday 2026-06-05 $7601.60 7600 7500/7600/7600/7700 $65.8800 0.659 1.070% $57.9000 +$3,192 +$56,612 SCHED
2026-06-03 Wednesday 2026-06-05 $7610.34 7610 7510/7610/7610/7710 $55.8000 0.558 0.845% $68.0000 $-4,880 +$51,732 SCHED
2026-06-16 Tuesday 2026-06-26 $7578.91 7580 7480/7580/7580/7680 $88.5200 0.885 1.849% $77.4200 +$4,440 +$56,172 SCHED
2026-06-17 Wednesday 2026-06-26 $7534.92 7535 7435/7535/7535/7635 $70.7300 0.707 1.612% $24.3200 +$18,564 +$74,736 SCHED
2026-06-22 Monday 2026-06-26 $7529.90 7530 7430/7530/7530/7630 $67.7700 0.678 1.217% $71.0700 $-1,320 +$73,416 SCHED
2026-06-24 Wednesday 2026-06-26 $7394.43 7395 7295/7395/7395/7495 $60.7900 0.608 1.206% $62.8200 $-812 +$72,604 SCHED
2026-06-25 Thursday 2026-06-26 $7400.66 7400 7300/7400/7400/7500 $57.9700 0.580 0.933% $50.9200 +$2,820 +$75,424 SCHED
2026-06-30 Tuesday 2026-07-10 $7445.65 7445 7345/7445/7445/7545 $81.4000 0.814 1.899% $74.0600 +$2,936 +$78,360 SCHED
2026-07-02 Thursday 2026-07-10 $7519.26 7520 7420/7520/7520/7620 $50.8500 0.508 1.101% $79.1700 $-11,328 +$67,032 SCHED
2026-07-06 Monday 2026-07-10 $7514.14 7515 7415/7515/7515/7615 $57.4700 0.575 1.068% $68.7000 $-4,492 +$62,540 SCHED
2026-07-07 Tuesday 2026-07-10 $7525.88 7525 7425/7525/7525/7625 $56.1800 0.562 0.889% $57.6200 $-576 +$61,964 SCHED
2026-07-10 Friday 2026-07-17 $7557.47 7555 7455/7555/7555/7655 $59.5600 0.596 1.132% $64.8400 $-2,112 +$59,852 SCHED
2026-07-13 Monday 2026-07-17 $7563.64 7565 7465/7565/7565/7665 $55.3100 0.553 0.996% $53.9700 +$536 +$60,388 SCHED
2026-07-14 Tuesday 2026-07-17 $7543.26 7545 7445/7545/7545/7645 $49.8100 0.498 0.967% $55.6100 $-2,320 +$58,068 SCHED
2026-07-22 Wednesday 2026-07-24 $7504.19 7505 7405/7505/7505/7605 $54.2700 0.543 0.884% $47.7900 +$2,592 +$60,660 SCHED
2026-07-24 Friday 2026-07-31 $7421.45 7420 7320/7420/7420/7520 $76.1200 0.761 1.832% $81.1700 $-2,020 +$58,640 SCHED
2026-07-29 Wednesday 2026-07-31 $7430.69 7430 7330/7430/7430/7530 $69.5000 0.695 1.385% $97.0200 $-11,008 +$47,632 SCHED
2026-08-07 Friday 2026-08-14 $7743.65 7745 7645/7745/7745/7845 $46.9400 0.469 1.066% $72.3000 $-10,144 +$37,488 SCHED
2026-08-10 Monday 2026-08-14 $7760.27 7760 7660/7760/7760/7860 $67.6500 0.676 1.200% $58.0600 +$3,836 +$41,324 SCHED
2026-08-11 Tuesday 2026-08-14 $7763.88 7765 7665/7765/7765/7865 $55.6000 0.556 0.911% $60.5300 $-1,972 +$39,352 SCHED
2026-08-14 Friday 2026-08-21 $7813.19 7815 7715/7815/7815/7915 $62.7200 0.627 1.071% $57.5200 +$2,080 +$41,432 SCHED
2026-08-17 Monday 2026-08-21 $7786.58 7785 7685/7785/7785/7885 $55.5900 0.556 0.850% $65.8100 $-4,088 +$37,344 SCHED
2026-08-18 Tuesday 2026-08-21 $7723.71 7725 7625/7725/7725/7825 $56.3500 0.564 0.896% $47.2800 +$3,628 +$40,972 SCHED
2026-08-21 Friday 2026-08-28 $7683.24 7685 7585/7685/7685/7785 $73.8300 0.738 1.396% $66.4400 +$2,956 +$43,928 SCHED
2026-08-24 Monday 2026-08-28 $7665.77 7665 7565/7665/7665/7765 $59.3700 0.594 1.148% $61.8700 $-1,000 +$42,928 SCHED
2026-08-25 Tuesday 2026-08-28 $7693.74 7695 7595/7695/7695/7795 $57.5000 0.575 1.051% $70.8800 $-5,352 +$37,576 SCHED
2026-08-26 Wednesday 2026-08-28 $7687.61 7690 7590/7690/7690/7790 $58.3700 0.584 0.946% $55.4400 +$1,172 +$38,748 SCHED
2026-08-28 Friday 2026-09-04 $7755.04 7755 7655/7755/7755/7855 $72.5300 0.725 1.265% $61.4400 +$4,436 +$43,184 SCHED
2026-08-31 Monday 2026-09-04 $7694.79 7695 7595/7695/7695/7795 $69.6200 0.696 1.140% $61.4800 +$3,256 +$46,440 SCHED
2026-09-02 Wednesday 2026-09-04 $7654.82 7655 7555/7655/7655/7755 $55.9500 0.559 0.870% $53.2500 +$1,080 +$47,520 SCHED
2026-09-04 Friday 2026-09-11 $7756.75 7755 7655/7755/7755/7855 $67.6700 0.677 1.142% $60.0600 +$3,044 +$50,564 SCHED
2026-09-08 Tuesday 2026-09-11 $7713.17 7715 7615/7715/7715/7815 $71.0700 0.711 1.173% $58.9600 +$4,844 +$55,408 SCHED
2026-09-09 Wednesday 2026-09-11 $7669.59 7670 7570/7670/7670/7770 $55.8600 0.559 0.914% $54.0400 +$728 +$56,136 SCHED
2026-09-15 Tuesday 2026-09-18 $7629.82 7630 7530/7630/7630/7730 $63.8000 0.638 1.263% $75.9100 $-4,844 +$51,292 SCHED