Daily Iron Butterfly SPY (1083) Backtest | AI Velocity

Daily Iron Butterfly SPY (1083) Backtest

Total P&L
+$1,116
Jan 5, 2026 → Sep 10, 2026
Win Rate
68.2%
60 wins / 28 losses
Total Trades
88
Mon–Thu entries
Potential Trading Days
128
Days with price data
Avg P&L / Day
+$9
Across 128 days
Avg Annual Profit
+$2,197
Avg day P&L × 252
Capital Required
$336
Avg max loss / trade
Avg Annual Return
653.3%
Annual profit / avg capital
Profit Factor
1.91
Gross wins / gross losses
Sharpe Ratio
3.25
Day × √252 annualised
Max Drawdown
$397
Peak-to-trough equity
Payoff Ratio
0.89x
Avg win / avg loss

📈 Equity Curve

⚙️ Strategy Configuration

Ticker
SPY
Contracts
1
Structure
Iron Butterfly
Short Strikes
ATM
Wing Width
1.5% of SPY
Entry Days
Mon–Thu
Entry Time
9:40 ET
Exit
Same day 15:40 ET
Expiry
Same-week Friday
Profit Target
None
Stop Loss
None

Net-Credit Filter — live floor $650 / $600 / $550 / $500 at 4 / 3 / 2 / 1 days to expiry

Days to ExpiryFloorEntries / DaysTotal P&LAvg / Trade
4 (Mon)$65020 / 29+$133+$7
3 (Tue)$60025 / 33+$206+$8
2 (Wed)$55026 / 33+$469+$18
1 (Thu)$50017 / 33+$308+$18

Strike Construction

LegStrikeActionRole
Long PutATM − wingBuyDownside protection — caps max loss
Short PutATMSellBody of the butterfly
Short CallATMSellBody of the butterfly
Long CallATM + wingBuyUpside protection — caps max loss

P&L Mechanics

Net credit at entry (9:40 ET)Maximum profit if SPY finishes inside the short strikes
SPY beyond a long wingMaximum loss = wing width × 100 − credit
Avg net credit collected$664 per contract
ExitEvery position is closed at Same day 15:40 ET by a scheduled job, regardless of P&L

📊 Win / Loss Analysis

Win Rate Breakdown

Winners (60)68.2%
68.2%
Losers (28)31.8%
31.8%

P&L Breakdown

Average winner+$39
Average loser-$44
Best trade+$109 (2026-02-26)
Worst trade-$141 (2026-06-11)
Total gross wins+$2,340
Total gross losses-$1,224

⚠️ Risk Assessment

Max Drawdown

$397

Worst Single Loss

-$141

Avg Max Loss / Trade

$336

Profit Factor

1.91

Sharpe (Annualised)

3.25

Payoff Ratio

0.89x

💡 Key Insights

✅

Net Gain Under Live Rules

Total P&L of +$1,116 over 88 trades, 68% winners. Average winner +$39 vs average loser -$44.

⚠️

Floors Were Tuned on a 14:40 Exit

The per-days-to-expiry credit floors came from a sweep that exited at 14:40 ET. The live strategy exits at 15:40 ET, which is what this page models, so results differ from the sweep.

⚠️

Gross of Costs

No commissions or slippage are modelled. At $4 per round trip (the slippage assumed in the exit-rule sweep) the total would be +$764.

📋 Full Trade Log is not displayed on mobile devices to prevent page freezing. View this report on a desktop browser to see all 88 trades.

📋 Full Trade Log (88 trades)

EntryDayExpirySPY 9:40 LP/SP/SC/LCCredit InCost to Close P&LCum P&LExit
2026-01-14 Wednesday 2026-01-16 $690.63 681/691/691/701 $574 $470 +$104 +$104 01-14 15:40
2026-01-20 Tuesday 2026-01-23 $682.48 672/682/682/692 $729 $667 +$62 +$166 01-20 15:40
2026-01-21 Wednesday 2026-01-23 $680.13 670/680/680/690 $633 $680 -$47 +$119 01-21 15:40
2026-01-26 Monday 2026-01-30 $691.71 682/692/692/702 $659 $671 -$12 +$107 01-26 15:40
2026-01-27 Tuesday 2026-01-30 $693.58 684/694/694/704 $617 $654 -$37 +$70 01-27 15:40
2026-01-28 Wednesday 2026-01-30 $697.13 687/697/697/707 $587 $522 +$65 +$135 01-28 15:40
2026-01-29 Thursday 2026-01-30 $695.40 685/695/695/705 $501 $405 +$96 +$231 01-29 15:40
2026-02-02 Monday 2026-02-06 $691.95 682/692/692/702 $711 $717 -$6 +$225 02-02 15:40
2026-02-04 Wednesday 2026-02-06 $690.61 681/691/691/701 $636 $647 -$11 +$214 02-04 15:40
2026-02-05 Thursday 2026-02-06 $682.49 672/682/682/692 $696 $606 +$90 +$304 02-05 15:40
2026-02-09 Monday 2026-02-13 $691.14 681/691/691/701 $712 $706 +$6 +$310 02-09 15:40
2026-02-10 Tuesday 2026-02-13 $694.38 684/694/694/704 $660 $593 +$67 +$377 02-10 15:40
2026-02-11 Wednesday 2026-02-13 $695.31 685/695/695/705 $562 $498 +$64 +$441 02-11 15:40
2026-02-17 Tuesday 2026-02-20 $682.48 672/682/682/692 $734 $708 +$26 +$467 02-17 15:40
2026-02-18 Wednesday 2026-02-20 $684.25 674/684/684/694 $698 $648 +$50 +$517 02-18 15:40
2026-02-19 Thursday 2026-02-20 $683.64 674/684/684/694 $605 $508 +$97 +$614 02-19 15:40
2026-02-23 Monday 2026-02-27 $689.56 680/690/690/700 $715 $691 +$24 +$638 02-23 15:40
2026-02-24 Tuesday 2026-02-27 $682.27 672/682/682/692 $758 $800 -$42 +$596 02-24 15:40
2026-02-25 Wednesday 2026-02-27 $691.14 681/691/691/701 $634 $635 -$1 +$595 02-25 15:40
2026-02-26 Thursday 2026-02-27 $692.19 682/692/692/702 $507 $398 +$109 +$704 02-26 15:40
2026-03-02 Monday 2026-03-06 $681.00 671/681/681/691 $801 $804 -$3 +$701 03-02 15:40
2026-03-03 Tuesday 2026-03-06 $675.76 666/676/676/686 $773 $816 -$43 +$658 03-03 15:40
2026-03-04 Wednesday 2026-03-06 $681.02 671/681/681/691 $724 $753 -$29 +$629 03-04 15:40
2026-03-05 Thursday 2026-03-06 $683.66 674/684/684/694 $614 $550 +$64 +$693 03-05 15:40
2026-03-09 Monday 2026-03-13 $664.74 655/665/665/675 $850 $914 -$64 +$629 03-09 15:40
2026-03-10 Tuesday 2026-03-13 $677.24 667/677/677/687 $779 $726 +$53 +$682 03-10 15:40
2026-03-11 Wednesday 2026-03-13 $678.38 668/678/678/688 $721 $666 +$55 +$737 03-11 15:40
2026-03-12 Thursday 2026-03-13 $671.36 661/671/671/681 $660 $597 +$63 +$800 03-12 15:40
2026-03-16 Monday 2026-03-20 $669.02 659/669/669/679 $826 $798 +$28 +$828 03-16 15:40
2026-03-17 Tuesday 2026-03-20 $673.90 664/674/674/684 $738 $692 +$46 +$874 03-17 15:40
2026-03-18 Wednesday 2026-03-20 $669.08 659/669/669/679 $714 $691 +$23 +$897 03-18 15:40
2026-03-19 Thursday 2026-03-20 $656.24 646/656/656/666 $669 $630 +$39 +$936 03-19 15:40
2026-03-23 Monday 2026-03-27 $658.28 648/658/658/668 $827 $800 +$27 +$963 03-23 15:40
2026-03-24 Tuesday 2026-03-27 $651.31 641/651/651/661 $800 $766 +$34 +$997 03-24 15:40
2026-03-25 Wednesday 2026-03-27 $659.92 650/660/660/670 $722 $683 +$39 +$1,036 03-25 15:40
2026-03-26 Thursday 2026-03-27 $650.81 641/651/651/661 $653 $619 +$34 +$1,070 03-26 15:40
2026-04-06 Monday 2026-04-10 $656.56 647/657/657/667 $795 $777 +$18 +$1,088 04-06 15:40
2026-04-07 Tuesday 2026-04-10 $655.19 645/655/655/665 $781 $813 -$32 +$1,056 04-07 15:40
2026-04-08 Wednesday 2026-04-10 $675.42 665/675/675/685 $606 $582 +$24 +$1,080 04-08 15:40
2026-04-13 Monday 2026-04-17 $677.25 667/677/677/687 $714 $794 -$80 +$1,000 04-13 15:40
2026-04-14 Tuesday 2026-04-17 $689.04 679/689/689/699 $607 $701 -$94 +$906 04-14 15:40
2026-04-20 Monday 2026-04-24 $708.60 699/709/709/719 $699 $679 +$20 +$926 04-20 15:40
2026-04-21 Tuesday 2026-04-24 $709.04 699/709/709/719 $674 $677 -$3 +$923 04-21 15:40
2026-04-22 Wednesday 2026-04-24 $708.88 699/709/709/719 $600 $561 +$39 +$962 04-22 15:40
2026-04-27 Monday 2026-05-01 $714.36 704/714/714/724 $735 $719 +$16 +$978 04-27 15:40
2026-04-28 Tuesday 2026-05-01 $712.05 702/712/712/722 $710 $675 +$35 +$1,013 04-28 15:40
2026-04-29 Wednesday 2026-05-01 $710.55 701/711/711/721 $683 $675 +$8 +$1,021 04-29 15:40
2026-04-30 Thursday 2026-05-01 $711.84 702/712/712/722 $576 $714 -$138 +$883 04-30 15:40
2026-05-04 Monday 2026-05-08 $719.84 710/720/720/730 $655 $637 +$18 +$901 05-04 15:40
2026-05-05 Tuesday 2026-05-08 $722.03 712/722/722/732 $613 $625 -$12 +$889 05-05 15:40
2026-05-11 Monday 2026-05-15 $737.61 728/738/738/748 $667 $665 +$2 +$891 05-11 15:40
2026-05-12 Tuesday 2026-05-15 $736.08 726/736/736/746 $645 $633 +$12 +$903 05-12 15:40
2026-05-13 Wednesday 2026-05-15 $736.79 727/737/737/747 $583 $695 -$112 +$791 05-13 15:40
2026-05-14 Thursday 2026-05-15 $745.32 735/745/745/755 $504 $520 -$16 +$775 05-14 15:40
2026-05-18 Monday 2026-05-22 $738.72 729/739/739/749 $709 $708 +$1 +$776 05-18 15:40
2026-05-19 Tuesday 2026-05-22 $735.36 725/735/735/745 $686 $670 +$16 +$792 05-19 15:40
2026-05-20 Wednesday 2026-05-22 $734.89 725/735/735/745 $664 $713 -$49 +$743 05-20 15:40
2026-05-21 Thursday 2026-05-22 $737.69 728/738/738/748 $568 $620 -$52 +$691 05-21 15:40
2026-05-26 Tuesday 2026-05-29 $749.72 740/750/750/760 $617 $591 +$26 +$717 05-26 15:40
2026-05-27 Wednesday 2026-05-29 $750.52 741/751/751/761 $556 $484 +$72 +$789 05-27 15:40
2026-06-02 Tuesday 2026-06-05 $756.99 747/757/757/767 $622 $607 +$15 +$804 06-02 15:40
2026-06-08 Monday 2026-06-12 $741.62 732/742/742/752 $762 $678 +$84 +$888 06-08 15:40
2026-06-09 Tuesday 2026-06-12 $744.43 734/744/744/754 $668 $608 +$60 +$948 06-09 15:40
2026-06-10 Wednesday 2026-06-12 $734.59 725/735/735/745 $729 $737 -$8 +$940 06-10 15:40
2026-06-11 Thursday 2026-06-12 $727.26 717/727/727/737 $695 $836 -$141 +$799 06-11 15:40
2026-06-22 Monday 2026-06-26 $749.80 740/750/750/760 $655 $645 +$10 +$809 06-22 15:40
2026-06-23 Tuesday 2026-06-26 $734.38 724/734/734/744 $752 $743 +$9 +$818 06-23 15:40
2026-06-24 Wednesday 2026-06-26 $736.34 726/736/736/746 $685 $656 +$29 +$847 06-24 15:40
2026-06-25 Thursday 2026-06-26 $736.99 727/737/737/747 $577 $546 +$31 +$878 06-25 15:40
2026-07-08 Wednesday 2026-07-10 $743.95 734/744/744/754 $598 $556 +$42 +$920 07-08 15:40
2026-07-14 Tuesday 2026-07-17 $751.18 741/751/751/761 $607 $570 +$37 +$957 07-14 15:40
2026-07-20 Monday 2026-07-24 $748.17 738/748/748/758 $683 $653 +$30 +$987 07-20 15:40
2026-07-21 Tuesday 2026-07-24 $745.26 735/745/745/755 $649 $686 -$37 +$950 07-21 15:40
2026-07-22 Wednesday 2026-07-24 $747.41 737/747/747/757 $585 $547 +$38 +$988 07-22 15:40
2026-07-23 Thursday 2026-07-24 $741.42 731/741/741/751 $556 $519 +$37 +$1,025 07-23 15:40
2026-07-27 Monday 2026-07-31 $744.97 735/745/745/755 $709 $703 +$6 +$1,031 07-27 15:40
2026-07-28 Tuesday 2026-07-31 $737.79 728/738/738/748 $740 $757 -$17 +$1,014 07-28 15:40
2026-07-29 Wednesday 2026-07-31 $739.89 730/740/740/750 $735 $703 +$32 +$1,046 07-29 15:40
2026-07-30 Thursday 2026-07-31 $735.31 725/735/735/745 $600 $729 -$129 +$917 07-30 15:40
2026-08-05 Wednesday 2026-08-07 $776.53 767/777/777/787 $632 $616 +$16 +$933 08-05 15:40
2026-08-06 Thursday 2026-08-07 $769.71 760/770/770/780 $521 $426 +$95 +$1,028 08-06 15:40
2026-08-24 Monday 2026-08-28 $763.36 753/763/763/773 $658 $650 +$8 +$1,036 08-24 15:40
2026-08-25 Tuesday 2026-08-28 $766.18 756/766/766/776 $629 $603 +$26 +$1,062 08-25 15:40
2026-08-26 Wednesday 2026-08-28 $765.53 756/766/766/776 $590 $580 +$10 +$1,072 08-26 15:40
2026-09-01 Tuesday 2026-09-04 $761.76 752/762/762/772 $612 $613 -$1 +$1,071 09-01 15:40
2026-09-02 Wednesday 2026-09-04 $762.45 752/762/762/772 $572 $580 -$8 +$1,063 09-02 15:40
2026-09-09 Wednesday 2026-09-11 $763.83 754/764/764/774 $573 $549 +$24 +$1,087 09-09 15:40
2026-09-10 Thursday 2026-09-11 $758.42 748/758/758/768 $566 $537 +$29 +$1,116 09-10 15:40