SPY Daily Iron Butterfly Backtest: Intraday Results | AI Velocity

Daily Iron Butterfly SPY

Total P&L
+$36,720
Jan 1 → 2026-09-28
Win Rate
61.8%
34 wins / 18 losses
Total Trades
55
Mon–Fri daily entries
Potential Trading Days
185
Days a trade could occur
Avg P&L / Day
+$198
Across 185 trading days
Avg Annual Profit
+$50,019
Avg daily P&L × 252
Capital Required
$16,545
Avg max loss / trade
Avg Annual Return
302.3%
Annual profit / avg capital
Profit Factor
1.82
Gross wins / gross losses
Sharpe Ratio
3.30
Daily × √252 annualised
Max Drawdown
$20,640
Peak-to-trough equity
Payoff Ratio
0.97x
Avg win / avg loss

📈 Equity Curve

⚙️ Strategy Configuration

Ticker
SPY
Contracts
40
Structure
Iron Butterfly
Wing Width
±$10
Entry Days
Mon–Fri
Entry Time
9:40 ET
Exit Time
14:20 ET
Expiry
Next Friday
Profit Target
+90%
Stop Loss
-80%

Trade Filters

FilterStatus
Credit ratio ≥ 0.2 (2.00/wing)✔ Active
Net credit ≥ $1.00✔ Active
Straddle ≥ 0.8% of SPY✔ Active
Straddle ≤ 1.2% of SPY✔ Active
Overnight gap ≤ 1.0% of prior close✔ Active
Prior-day move ≤ 45% of wing (≤$4.50)✔ Active
Avg credit ratio (traded days)0.586 (5.86/10)
Avg straddle % of SPY (traded days)0.995%

Strike Construction

LegStrikeActionRole
Long PutATM − $10BuyOuter put wing — defines max loss on downside
Short PutATMSellATM short — max profit zone (butterfly body)
Short CallATMSellATM short — max profit zone (butterfly body)
Long CallATM + $10BuyOuter call wing — defines max loss on upside

P&L Mechanics

Net credit at open (9:40 ET)Max profit = credit × 100 × 40 (at expiry if SPY = ATM)
SPY moves > $10 from ATMMax loss = ($10 − credit) × 100 × 40
Avg net credit collected$5.8636 per share
Auto-exit profit targetClose if P&L ≥ +90% of max profit
Auto-exit stop lossClose if P&L ≤ −80% of max profit

🚦 Exit Breakdown

Scheduled (14:20 ET)

55

Profit Target +90%

0

Stop Loss −80%

0

Total Trades

55

📊 Win / Loss Analysis

Win Rate Breakdown

Winners (34)61.8%
61.8%
Losers (18)38.2%
38.2%

P&L Breakdown

Average winner+$2,391
Average loser$-2,476
Best trade+$11,440 (2026-03-05)
Worst trade$-6,320 (2026-05-06)
Total gross wins+$81,280
Total gross losses$-44,560

⚠️ Risk Assessment

Max Drawdown

$20,640

Worst Single Loss

$-6,320

Avg Max Loss / Trade

$16,545

Profit Factor

1.82

Sharpe (Annualised)

3.30

Payoff Ratio

0.97x

💡 Key Insights

✅

Profitable Strategy

Total P&L of +$36,720 over 55 trades across Jan–2026-09-28. The iron butterfly's ATM structure collects short-term premium on SPY, a highly liquid ETF with excellent OPRA data coverage.

⚠️

Auto-Exit Applied at Exit Bar Only

The live script monitors positions every 5 minutes and can exit intraday. This backtest applies +90%/−80% thresholds at the 14:20 ET bar close only, understating how often stops would trigger intraday. Real performance may differ.

⚠️

SPY Wing Width Consideration

With SPY trading near $500–600, a ±$10 wing is a relatively narrow ~1.7% range. In high-volatility periods SPY can easily move more than $10 intraday, frequently triggering max loss. Consider widening wings (±$15–$25) or reducing QTY for live trading.

📋 Full Trade Log is not displayed on mobile devices to prevent page freezing. View this report on a desktop browser to see all 55 trades.

📋 Full Trade Log (55 trades)

DateDayExpirySPY OpenATM LP/SP/SC/LCCredit OpenCr/WingStraddle%Credit Close P&LCum P&LExit
2026-01-05 Monday 2026-01-09 $687.08 687 677/687/687/697 $6.0700 0.607 1.089% $5.9300 +$560 +$560 SCHED
2026-01-06 Tuesday 2026-01-09 $688.18 688 678/688/688/698 $5.4500 0.545 0.907% $6.3800 $-3,720 $-3,160 SCHED
2026-01-07 Wednesday 2026-01-09 $692.41 692 682/692/692/702 $4.9100 0.491 0.784% $4.3500 +$2,240 $-920 SCHED
2026-01-12 Monday 2026-01-16 $692.79 693 683/693/693/703 $5.7600 0.576 1.132% $6.3200 $-2,240 $-3,160 SCHED
2026-01-13 Tuesday 2026-01-16 $695.79 696 686/696/696/706 $5.4600 0.546 0.901% $4.8400 +$2,480 $-680 SCHED
2026-01-14 Wednesday 2026-01-16 $690.59 691 681/691/691/701 $5.6700 0.567 0.999% $4.9200 +$3,000 +$2,320 SCHED
2026-01-16 Friday 2026-01-23 $693.79 694 684/694/694/704 $6.0800 0.608 1.114% $6.0100 +$280 +$2,600 SCHED
2026-01-27 Tuesday 2026-01-30 $693.60 694 684/694/694/704 $6.1700 0.617 1.125% $6.3800 $-840 +$1,760 SCHED
2026-01-28 Wednesday 2026-01-30 $697.16 697 687/697/697/707 $5.8200 0.582 1.003% $4.8800 +$3,760 +$5,520 SCHED
2026-01-29 Thursday 2026-01-30 $695.39 695 685/695/695/705 $5.0600 0.506 0.817% $2.9300 +$8,520 +$14,040 SCHED
2026-02-03 Tuesday 2026-02-06 $695.75 696 686/696/696/706 $5.9900 0.599 1.052% $4.3300 +$6,640 +$20,680 SCHED
2026-02-11 Wednesday 2026-02-13 $695.19 695 685/695/695/705 $5.7200 0.572 0.959% $4.7000 +$4,080 +$24,760 SCHED
2026-02-19 Thursday 2026-02-20 $683.68 684 674/684/684/694 $6.1500 0.615 1.122% $5.1700 +$3,920 +$28,680 SCHED
2026-02-26 Thursday 2026-02-27 $692.16 692 682/692/692/702 $5.1700 0.517 0.857% $4.2800 +$3,560 +$32,240 SCHED
2026-03-05 Thursday 2026-03-06 $683.63 684 674/684/684/694 $6.2700 0.627 1.137% $3.4100 +$11,440 +$43,680 SCHED
2026-04-09 Thursday 2026-04-10 $675.12 675 665/675/675/685 $4.9100 0.491 0.832% $6.1300 $-4,880 +$38,800 SCHED
2026-04-23 Thursday 2026-04-24 $710.25 710 700/710/710/720 $4.9300 0.493 0.788% $4.6100 +$1,280 +$40,080 SCHED
2026-04-30 Thursday 2026-05-01 $711.84 712 702/712/712/722 $5.7200 0.572 0.954% $6.8300 $-4,440 +$35,640 SCHED
2026-05-05 Tuesday 2026-05-08 $722.10 722 712/722/722/732 $6.1300 0.613 1.069% $6.4500 $-1,280 +$34,360 SCHED
2026-05-06 Wednesday 2026-05-08 $729.05 729 719/729/729/739 $5.2700 0.527 0.863% $6.8500 $-6,320 +$28,040 SCHED
2026-05-12 Tuesday 2026-05-15 $736.05 736 726/736/736/746 $6.3900 0.639 1.168% $6.2900 +$400 +$28,440 SCHED
2026-05-13 Wednesday 2026-05-15 $736.77 737 727/737/737/747 $5.7600 0.576 0.981% $7.0900 $-5,320 +$23,120 SCHED
2026-05-26 Tuesday 2026-05-29 $749.71 750 740/750/750/760 $6.2000 0.620 1.075% $5.8900 +$1,240 +$24,360 SCHED
2026-05-27 Wednesday 2026-05-29 $750.51 751 741/751/751/761 $5.5500 0.555 0.899% $5.1200 +$1,720 +$26,080 SCHED
2026-06-01 Monday 2026-06-05 $756.22 756 746/756/756/766 $6.5600 0.656 1.168% $6.8100 $-1,000 +$25,080 SCHED
2026-06-02 Tuesday 2026-06-05 $756.98 757 747/757/757/767 $6.2000 0.620 1.020% $6.7100 $-2,040 +$23,040 SCHED
2026-06-03 Wednesday 2026-06-05 $757.85 758 748/758/758/768 $5.4500 0.545 0.848% $5.2300 +$880 +$23,920 SCHED
2026-06-25 Thursday 2026-06-26 $736.97 737 727/737/737/747 $5.7400 0.574 0.938% $4.9500 +$3,160 +$27,080 SCHED
2026-07-06 Monday 2026-07-10 $748.27 748 738/748/748/758 $6.3200 0.632 1.123% $6.4300 $-440 +$26,640 SCHED
2026-07-07 Tuesday 2026-07-10 $749.44 749 739/749/749/759 $5.7900 0.579 0.913% $4.9700 +$3,280 +$29,920 SCHED
2026-07-08 Wednesday 2026-07-10 $743.96 744 734/744/744/754 $5.8300 0.583 0.987% $5.6400 +$760 +$30,680 SCHED
2026-07-13 Monday 2026-07-17 $753.20 753 743/753/753/763 $6.0800 0.608 1.075% $6.4400 $-1,440 +$29,240 SCHED
2026-07-14 Tuesday 2026-07-17 $751.17 751 741/751/751/761 $6.1300 0.613 1.045% $5.8300 +$1,200 +$30,440 SCHED
2026-07-22 Wednesday 2026-07-24 $747.28 747 737/747/747/757 $5.7700 0.577 0.927% $5.7900 $-80 +$30,360 SCHED
2026-07-23 Thursday 2026-07-24 $741.66 742 732/742/742/752 $5.3500 0.535 0.836% $5.4000 $-200 +$30,160 SCHED
2026-08-03 Monday 2026-08-07 $751.75 752 742/752/752/762 $6.3300 0.633 1.095% $7.1000 $-3,080 +$27,080 SCHED
2026-08-10 Monday 2026-08-14 $772.78 773 763/773/773/783 $6.2600 0.626 1.083% $6.1900 +$280 +$27,360 SCHED
2026-08-11 Tuesday 2026-08-14 $773.14 773 763/773/773/783 $5.9700 0.597 1.001% $5.6900 +$1,120 +$28,480 SCHED
2026-08-12 Wednesday 2026-08-14 $772.86 773 763/773/773/783 $5.1400 0.514 0.770% $4.7200 +$1,680 +$30,160 SCHED
2026-08-14 Friday 2026-08-21 $778.05 778 768/778/778/788 $6.3400 0.634 1.072% $5.6200 +$2,880 +$33,040 SCHED
2026-08-17 Monday 2026-08-21 $775.40 775 765/775/775/785 $5.6500 0.565 0.883% $5.3000 +$1,400 +$34,440 SCHED
2026-08-18 Tuesday 2026-08-21 $769.14 769 759/769/769/779 $5.5300 0.553 0.885% $5.0600 +$1,880 +$36,320 SCHED
2026-08-24 Monday 2026-08-28 $763.37 763 753/763/763/773 $6.6000 0.660 1.192% $6.5100 +$360 +$36,680 SCHED
2026-08-25 Tuesday 2026-08-28 $766.15 766 756/766/766/776 $6.3600 0.636 1.083% $6.3600 +$0 +$36,680 SCHED
2026-08-26 Wednesday 2026-08-28 $765.54 766 756/766/766/776 $5.7700 0.577 0.947% $5.7700 +$0 +$36,680 SCHED
2026-08-28 Friday 2026-09-04 $772.26 772 762/772/772/782 $6.6300 0.663 1.196% $6.4500 +$720 +$37,400 SCHED
2026-08-31 Monday 2026-09-04 $766.26 766 756/766/766/776 $6.2100 0.621 1.048% $6.2100 +$-0 +$37,400 SCHED
2026-09-01 Tuesday 2026-09-04 $761.72 762 752/762/762/772 $6.0700 0.607 1.019% $6.0200 +$200 +$37,600 SCHED
2026-09-02 Wednesday 2026-09-04 $762.28 762 752/762/762/772 $5.7700 0.577 0.896% $5.9300 $-640 +$36,960 SCHED
2026-09-04 Friday 2026-09-11 $772.43 772 762/772/772/782 $6.3000 0.630 1.097% $6.0400 +$1,040 +$38,000 SCHED
2026-09-08 Tuesday 2026-09-11 $768.09 768 758/768/768/778 $5.9500 0.595 0.996% $6.0400 $-360 +$37,640 SCHED
2026-09-09 Wednesday 2026-09-11 $763.75 764 754/764/764/774 $5.7800 0.578 0.932% $5.5800 +$800 +$38,440 SCHED
2026-09-10 Thursday 2026-09-11 $758.41 758 748/758/758/768 $5.6300 0.563 0.874% $5.4500 +$720 +$39,160 SCHED
2026-09-16 Wednesday 2026-09-18 $758.77 759 749/759/759/769 $6.6600 0.666 1.199% $5.7100 +$3,800 +$42,960 SCHED
2026-09-21 Monday 2026-09-25 $766.62 767 757/767/767/777 $5.7200 0.572 0.934% $7.2800 $-6,240 +$36,720 SCHED