TQQQ Daily Iron Butterfly Backtest | AI Velocity

Daily Iron Butterfly TQQQ

Total P&L
+$33,800
Jan 1 → 2026-09-15
Win Rate
61.0%
47 wins / 29 losses
Total Trades
77
Mon–Fri daily entries
Potential Trading Days
176
Days a trade could occur
Avg P&L / Day
+$192
Across 176 trading days
Avg Annual Profit
+$48,395
Avg daily P&L × 252
Capital Required
$12,018
Avg max loss / trade
Avg Annual Return
402.7%
Annual profit / avg capital
Profit Factor
1.98
Gross wins / gross losses
Sharpe Ratio
4.28
Daily × √252 annualised
Max Drawdown
$9,360
Peak-to-trough equity
Payoff Ratio
1.22x
Avg win / avg loss

📈 Equity Curve

⚙️ Strategy Configuration

Ticker
TQQQ
Contracts
40
Structure
Iron Butterfly
Wing Width
±$6
Entry Days
Mon–Fri
Entry Time
9:40 ET
Exit Time
14:20 ET
Expiry
Next Friday
Profit Target
+90%
Stop Loss
-80%

Trade Filters

FilterStatus
Credit ratio ≥ 0.3 (1.80/wing)✔ Active
Net credit ≥ $1.00✔ Active
Straddle ≥ 3.0% of TQQQ✔ Active
Overnight gap ≤ 2.0% of prior close✔ Active
Prior-day move ≤ 45% of wing (≤$2.70)✔ Active
Avg credit ratio (traded days)0.499 (3.00/6)
Avg straddle % of TQQQ (traded days)5.693%

Strike Construction

LegStrikeActionRole
Long PutATM − $6BuyOuter put wing — defines max loss on downside
Short PutATMSellATM short — max profit zone (butterfly body)
Short CallATMSellATM short — max profit zone (butterfly body)
Long CallATM + $6BuyOuter call wing — defines max loss on upside

P&L Mechanics

Net credit at open (9:40 ET)Max profit = credit × 100 × 40 (at expiry if TQQQ = ATM)
TQQQ moves > $6 from ATMMax loss = ($6 − credit) × 100 × 40
Avg net credit collected$2.9955 per share
Auto-exit profit targetClose if P&L ≥ +90% of max profit
Auto-exit stop lossClose if P&L ≤ −80% of max profit

🚦 Exit Breakdown

Scheduled (14:20 ET)

77

Profit Target +90%

0

Stop Loss −80%

0

Total Trades

77

📊 Win / Loss Analysis

Win Rate Breakdown

Winners (47)61.0%
61.0%
Losers (29)39.0%
39.0%

P&L Breakdown

Average winner+$1,454
Average loser$-1,190
Best trade+$5,520 (2026-05-18)
Worst trade$-2,840 (2026-04-15)
Total gross wins+$68,320
Total gross losses$-34,520

⚠️ Risk Assessment

Max Drawdown

$9,360

Worst Single Loss

$-2,840

Avg Max Loss / Trade

$12,018

Profit Factor

1.98

Sharpe (Annualised)

4.28

Payoff Ratio

1.22x

💡 Key Insights

✅

Profitable Strategy

Total P&L of +$33,800 over 77 trades across Jan–2026-09-15. The iron butterfly's ATM structure collects short-term premium on TQQQ, a 3x daily-leveraged Nasdaq-100 ETF whose implied vol runs substantially hotter than SPY.

⚠️

Auto-Exit Applied at Exit Bar Only

The live script (if deployed) would monitor positions every 5 minutes and can exit intraday. This backtest applies +90%/−80% thresholds at the 14:20 ET bar close only, understating how often stops would trigger intraday. Real performance may differ.

⚠️

TQQQ Volatility Consideration

TQQQ (ProShares UltraPro QQQ — 3x daily-leveraged Nasdaq-100) trades $1 strike increments like SPY, but its ATM weekly straddle (~4.7% of price) runs 4-6x wider than SPY/XLF/DIA/IWM's ~0.75-1.2% band, a direct consequence of its daily 3x leverage amplifying Nasdaq-100 moves. Wing width and straddle-band thresholds were both widened substantially to compensate. Even so, a $6-wide wing can be breached quickly on volatile tech-earnings or Fed days — treat this as a materially higher-risk cousin of the SPY strategy, not a substitute for it.

📋 Full Trade Log is not displayed on mobile devices to prevent page freezing. View this report on a desktop browser to see all 77 trades.

📋 Full Trade Log (77 trades)

DateDayExpiryTQQQ OpenATM LP/SP/SC/LCCredit OpenCr/WingStraddle%Credit Close P&LCum P&LExit
2026-01-02 Friday 2026-01-09 $53.95 54 48/54/54/60 $2.5900 0.432 5.190% $2.6100 $-80 $-80 SCHED
2026-01-06 Tuesday 2026-01-09 $53.96 54 48/54/54/60 $2.0200 0.337 3.892% $2.2900 $-1,080 $-1,160 SCHED
2026-01-09 Friday 2026-01-16 $54.67 55 49/55/55/61 $2.6900 0.448 5.469% $2.7500 $-240 $-1,400 SCHED
2026-01-12 Monday 2026-01-16 $55.47 55 49/55/55/61 $2.4200 0.403 4.741% $2.4800 $-240 $-1,640 SCHED
2026-01-13 Tuesday 2026-01-16 $56.28 56 50/56/56/62 $2.1000 0.350 3.873% $1.9600 +$560 $-1,080 SCHED
2026-01-21 Wednesday 2026-01-23 $51.02 51 45/51/51/57 $2.2900 0.382 4.665% $2.9000 $-2,440 $-3,520 SCHED
2026-01-23 Friday 2026-01-30 $53.41 53 47/53/53/59 $3.2600 0.543 6.778% $3.3700 $-440 $-3,960 SCHED
2026-01-26 Monday 2026-01-30 $54.75 55 49/55/55/61 $2.7000 0.450 5.388% $2.5000 +$800 $-3,160 SCHED
2026-01-27 Tuesday 2026-01-30 $55.66 56 50/56/56/62 $2.4500 0.408 4.815% $2.6000 $-600 $-3,760 SCHED
2026-01-28 Wednesday 2026-01-30 $57.67 58 52/58/58/64 $2.3600 0.393 4.422% $2.1800 +$720 $-3,040 SCHED
2026-01-29 Thursday 2026-01-30 $56.27 56 50/56/56/62 $1.8500 0.308 3.483% $1.0800 +$3,080 +$40 SCHED
2026-01-30 Friday 2026-02-06 $55.58 56 50/56/56/62 $3.0300 0.505 6.495% $3.1300 $-400 $-360 SCHED
2026-02-02 Monday 2026-02-06 $54.13 54 48/54/54/60 $2.9100 0.485 5.967% $3.1600 $-1,000 $-1,360 SCHED
2026-02-04 Wednesday 2026-02-06 $51.94 52 46/52/52/58 $2.5900 0.432 5.410% $2.8300 $-960 $-2,320 SCHED
2026-02-05 Thursday 2026-02-06 $49.20 49 43/49/49/55 $2.7100 0.452 5.915% $2.1200 +$2,360 +$40 SCHED
2026-02-09 Monday 2026-02-13 $50.45 50 44/50/50/56 $3.1000 0.517 6.739% $3.4300 $-1,320 $-1,280 SCHED
2026-02-10 Tuesday 2026-02-13 $51.67 52 46/52/52/58 $2.4000 0.400 5.090% $2.2700 +$520 $-760 SCHED
2026-02-11 Wednesday 2026-02-13 $51.81 52 46/52/52/58 $1.9200 0.320 3.880% $1.8400 +$320 $-440 SCHED
2026-02-17 Tuesday 2026-02-20 $48.42 48 42/48/48/54 $3.0000 0.500 6.732% $2.6200 +$1,520 +$1,080 SCHED
2026-02-18 Wednesday 2026-02-20 $48.50 48 42/48/48/54 $2.6900 0.448 5.835% $2.5800 +$440 +$1,520 SCHED
2026-02-19 Thursday 2026-02-20 $48.56 49 43/49/49/55 $1.9600 0.327 4.222% $1.4200 +$2,160 +$3,680 SCHED
2026-02-20 Friday 2026-02-27 $48.77 49 43/49/49/55 $3.3000 0.550 8.386% $3.4700 $-680 +$3,000 SCHED
2026-02-23 Monday 2026-02-27 $49.58 50 44/50/50/56 $3.0000 0.500 6.817% $2.9800 +$80 +$3,080 SCHED
2026-02-24 Tuesday 2026-02-27 $48.44 48 42/48/48/54 $3.2700 0.545 7.308% $3.2400 +$120 +$3,200 SCHED
2026-02-26 Thursday 2026-02-27 $51.23 51 45/51/51/57 $1.8600 0.310 3.670% $1.5400 +$1,280 +$4,480 SCHED
2026-03-04 Wednesday 2026-03-06 $48.84 49 43/49/49/55 $2.2100 0.368 5.487% $2.6000 $-1,560 +$2,920 SCHED
2026-03-05 Thursday 2026-03-06 $50.03 50 44/50/50/56 $1.8700 0.312 3.918% $1.2400 +$2,520 +$5,440 SCHED
2026-03-11 Wednesday 2026-03-13 $50.06 50 44/50/50/56 $2.3700 0.395 5.074% $2.0000 +$1,480 +$6,920 SCHED
2026-03-13 Friday 2026-03-20 $47.53 48 42/48/48/54 $3.4300 0.572 8.647% $3.4000 +$120 +$7,040 SCHED
2026-03-18 Wednesday 2026-03-20 $47.90 48 42/48/48/54 $2.1800 0.363 4.843% $1.5400 +$2,560 +$9,600 SCHED
2026-03-30 Monday 2026-04-10 $39.31 39 33/39/39/45 $4.2300 0.705 13.406% $3.4700 +$3,040 +$12,640 SCHED
2026-04-07 Tuesday 2026-04-10 $43.27 43 37/43/43/49 $2.8800 0.480 7.164% $3.5800 $-2,800 +$9,840 SCHED
2026-04-10 Friday 2026-04-17 $49.30 49 43/49/49/55 $2.7600 0.460 6.146% $2.6600 +$400 +$10,240 SCHED
2026-04-13 Monday 2026-04-17 $48.67 49 43/49/49/55 $2.4300 0.405 5.445% $3.1000 $-2,680 +$7,560 SCHED
2026-04-15 Wednesday 2026-04-17 $53.73 54 48/54/54/60 $1.8100 0.302 3.592% $2.5200 $-2,840 +$4,720 SCHED
2026-04-20 Monday 2026-04-24 $58.02 58 52/58/58/64 $2.6600 0.443 5.653% $2.8400 $-720 +$4,000 SCHED
2026-04-21 Tuesday 2026-04-24 $58.07 58 52/58/58/64 $2.7100 0.452 5.132% $2.7100 +$0 +$4,000 SCHED
2026-04-27 Monday 2026-05-01 $62.30 62 56/62/62/68 $3.4900 0.582 6.613% $3.4300 +$240 +$4,240 SCHED
2026-04-29 Wednesday 2026-05-01 $60.90 61 55/61/61/67 $3.1100 0.518 5.747% $3.1600 $-200 +$4,040 SCHED
2026-04-30 Thursday 2026-05-01 $61.60 62 56/62/62/68 $2.4300 0.405 4.123% $2.1000 +$1,320 +$5,360 SCHED
2026-05-04 Monday 2026-05-08 $65.31 65 59/65/65/71 $3.0500 0.508 5.405% $3.1100 $-240 +$5,120 SCHED
2026-05-13 Wednesday 2026-05-15 $75.20 75 69/75/75/81 $3.1300 0.522 4.774% $3.5900 $-1,840 +$3,280 SCHED
2026-05-18 Monday 2026-05-22 $75.56 76 70/76/76/82 $3.9900 0.665 7.054% $2.6100 +$5,520 +$8,800 SCHED
2026-05-19 Tuesday 2026-05-22 $73.85 74 68/74/74/80 $4.0900 0.682 6.622% $3.6200 +$1,880 +$10,680 SCHED
2026-05-20 Wednesday 2026-05-22 $74.06 74 68/74/74/80 $3.4900 0.582 5.671% $3.8000 $-1,240 +$9,440 SCHED
2026-05-21 Thursday 2026-05-22 $75.10 75 69/75/75/81 $2.6900 0.448 4.061% $2.7200 $-120 +$9,320 SCHED
2026-05-27 Wednesday 2026-05-29 $81.86 82 76/82/82/88 $3.1200 0.520 4.435% $2.5700 +$2,200 +$11,520 SCHED
2026-05-28 Thursday 2026-05-29 $81.13 81 75/81/81/87 $2.4600 0.410 3.242% $3.1300 $-2,680 +$8,840 SCHED
2026-05-29 Friday 2026-06-05 $84.88 85 79/85/85/91 $3.8900 0.648 6.362% $3.5600 +$1,320 +$10,160 SCHED
2026-06-01 Monday 2026-06-05 $84.95 85 79/85/85/91 $3.5500 0.592 5.615% $4.0300 $-1,920 +$8,240 SCHED
2026-06-02 Tuesday 2026-06-05 $85.13 85 79/85/85/91 $3.4600 0.577 4.945% $3.9200 $-1,840 +$6,400 SCHED
2026-06-03 Wednesday 2026-06-05 $87.42 87 81/87/87/93 $3.1900 0.532 4.289% $2.9100 +$1,120 +$7,520 SCHED
2026-06-16 Tuesday 2026-06-26 $83.96 84 78/84/84/90 $4.6800 0.780 9.707% $3.9600 +$2,880 +$10,400 SCHED
2026-06-24 Wednesday 2026-06-26 $74.95 75 69/75/75/81 $3.9900 0.665 7.085% $3.6500 +$1,360 +$11,760 SCHED
2026-06-30 Tuesday 2026-07-10 $78.37 78 72/78/78/84 $4.1000 0.683 9.506% $4.6400 $-2,160 +$9,600 SCHED
2026-07-02 Thursday 2026-07-10 $77.45 77 71/77/77/83 $4.6200 0.770 8.263% $3.7000 +$3,680 +$13,280 SCHED
2026-07-08 Wednesday 2026-07-10 $71.67 72 66/72/72/78 $3.5300 0.588 5.804% $2.8800 +$2,600 +$15,880 SCHED
2026-07-10 Friday 2026-07-17 $75.68 76 70/76/76/82 $4.1100 0.685 7.505% $3.7900 +$1,280 +$17,160 SCHED
2026-07-15 Wednesday 2026-07-17 $75.73 76 70/76/76/82 $2.9100 0.485 4.424% $2.7600 +$600 +$17,760 SCHED
2026-07-22 Wednesday 2026-07-24 $70.23 70 64/70/70/76 $3.2200 0.537 5.268% $2.9000 +$1,280 +$19,040 SCHED
2026-07-24 Friday 2026-07-31 $65.67 66 60/66/66/72 $4.3800 0.730 9.563% $4.6100 $-920 +$18,120 SCHED
2026-07-29 Wednesday 2026-07-31 $61.32 61 55/61/61/67 $3.9000 0.650 7.681% $3.4700 +$1,720 +$19,840 SCHED
2026-08-03 Monday 2026-08-07 $65.25 65 59/65/65/71 $3.7400 0.623 7.080% $3.9700 $-920 +$18,920 SCHED
2026-08-10 Monday 2026-08-14 $73.95 74 68/74/74/80 $3.4400 0.573 5.625% $3.2400 +$800 +$19,720 SCHED
2026-08-11 Tuesday 2026-08-14 $73.60 74 68/74/74/80 $3.0400 0.507 4.728% $2.8300 +$840 +$20,560 SCHED
2026-08-14 Friday 2026-08-21 $77.42 77 71/77/77/83 $3.2500 0.542 5.257% $3.0400 +$840 +$21,400 SCHED
2026-08-17 Monday 2026-08-21 $77.07 77 71/77/77/83 $3.0500 0.508 4.438% $2.6700 +$1,520 +$22,920 SCHED
2026-08-19 Wednesday 2026-08-21 $72.58 73 67/73/73/79 $2.2000 0.367 3.596% $2.2900 $-360 +$22,560 SCHED
2026-08-21 Friday 2026-08-28 $70.81 71 65/71/71/77 $3.9400 0.657 7.018% $3.4100 +$2,120 +$24,680 SCHED
2026-08-26 Wednesday 2026-08-28 $70.00 70 64/70/70/76 $2.8600 0.477 4.485% $2.5900 +$1,080 +$25,760 SCHED
2026-08-28 Friday 2026-09-04 $73.02 73 67/73/73/79 $3.4200 0.570 5.615% $3.0100 +$1,640 +$27,400 SCHED
2026-08-31 Monday 2026-09-04 $71.15 71 65/71/71/77 $3.0000 0.500 4.779% $2.8200 +$720 +$28,120 SCHED
2026-09-02 Wednesday 2026-09-04 $68.87 69 63/69/69/75 $2.3300 0.388 3.659% $2.1800 +$600 +$28,720 SCHED
2026-09-04 Friday 2026-09-11 $72.81 73 67/73/73/79 $3.1700 0.528 4.986% $2.5800 +$2,360 +$31,080 SCHED
2026-09-08 Tuesday 2026-09-11 $72.40 72 66/72/72/78 $2.8500 0.475 4.420% $2.5900 +$1,040 +$32,120 SCHED
2026-09-09 Wednesday 2026-09-11 $71.75 72 66/72/72/78 $2.7200 0.453 4.097% $2.4600 +$1,040 +$33,160 SCHED
2026-09-15 Tuesday 2026-09-18 $69.17 69 63/69/69/75 $3.0500 0.508 5.118% $2.8900 +$640 +$33,800 SCHED