TSLA Daily Iron Butterfly Backtest | AI Velocity

Daily Iron Butterfly TSLA

Total P&L
$-7,832
Jan 1 → 2026-07-22
Win Rate
51.6%
16 wins / 15 losses
Total Trades
31
Mon–Fri daily entries
Potential Trading Days
138
Days a trade could occur
Avg P&L / Day
$-57
Across 138 trading days
Avg Annual Profit
$-14,302
Avg daily P&L × 252
Capital Required
$21,395
Avg max loss / trade
Avg Annual Return
-66.8%
Annual profit / avg capital
Profit Factor
0.73
Gross wins / gross losses
Sharpe Ratio
-1.70
Daily × √252 annualised
Max Drawdown
$22,055
Peak-to-trough equity
Payoff Ratio
0.69x
Avg win / avg loss

📈 Equity Curve

⚙️ Strategy Configuration

Ticker
TSLA
Contracts
11
Structure
Iron Butterfly
Wing Width
±$35
Entry Days
Mon–Fri
Entry Time
9:40 ET
Exit Time
14:20 ET
Expiry
Next Friday
Profit Target
+90%
Stop Loss
-80%

Trade Filters

FilterStatus
None — all days traded
Avg credit ratio (traded days)0.444 (15.55/35)
Avg straddle % of TSLA (traded days)4.346%

Strike Construction

LegStrikeActionRole
Long PutATM − $35BuyOuter put wing — defines max loss on downside
Short PutATMSellATM short — max profit zone (butterfly body)
Short CallATMSellATM short — max profit zone (butterfly body)
Long CallATM + $35BuyOuter call wing — defines max loss on upside

P&L Mechanics

Net credit at open (9:40 ET)Max profit = credit × 100 × 40 (at expiry if QQQ = ATM)
QQQ moves > $10 from ATMMax loss = ($35 − credit) × 100 × 11
Avg net credit collected$15.5497 per share
Auto-exit profit targetClose if P&L ≥ +90% of max profit
Auto-exit stop lossClose if P&L ≤ −80% of max profit

🚦 Exit Breakdown

Scheduled (14:20 ET)

31

Profit Target +90%

0

Stop Loss −80%

0

Total Trades

31

📊 Win / Loss Analysis

Win Rate Breakdown

Winners (16)51.6%
51.6%
Losers (15)48.4%
48.4%

P&L Breakdown

Average winner+$1,351
Average loser$-1,963
Best trade+$3,564 (2026-05-14)
Worst trade$-7,205 (2026-05-11)
Total gross wins+$21,615
Total gross losses$-29,447

⚠️ Risk Assessment

Max Drawdown

$22,055

Worst Single Loss

$-7,205

Avg Max Loss / Trade

$21,395

Profit Factor

0.73

Sharpe (Annualised)

-1.70

Payoff Ratio

0.69x

💡 Key Insights

❌

Net Loss Period

Total P&L of $-7,832 over 31 trades. Elevated QQQ realized volatility caused frequent wing breaches during this period.

⚠️

Auto-Exit Applied at Exit Bar Only

The live script monitors positions every 5 minutes and can exit intraday. This backtest applies +90%/−80% thresholds at the 14:20 ET bar close only, understating how often stops would trigger intraday. Real performance may differ.

⚠️

TSLA Wing Width Consideration

With TSLA trading near $380–430, a ±$35 wing is approximately 8% of price. TSLA is known for high intraday volatility and can easily move more than $35 on earnings or macro events. Consider widening wings (±$40–$50) or reducing QTY for live trading.

📋 Full Trade Log is not displayed on mobile devices to prevent page freezing. View this report on a desktop browser to see all 31 trades.

📋 Full Trade Log (31 trades)

DateDayExpiryTSLA OpenATM LP/SP/SC/LCCredit OpenCr/WingStraddle%Credit Close P&LCum P&LExit
2026-01-13 Tuesday 2026-01-16 $449.61 450 415/450/450/485 $13.5100 0.386 3.147% $13.8100 $-330 $-330 SCHED
2026-01-20 Tuesday 2026-01-23 $425.34 425 390/425/425/460 $14.1900 0.405 3.578% $13.3400 +$935 +$605 SCHED
2026-01-26 Monday 2026-01-30 $439.90 440 405/440/440/475 $21.7400 0.621 6.092% $22.4400 $-770 $-165 SCHED
2026-01-28 Wednesday 2026-01-30 $434.90 435 400/435/435/470 $20.8500 0.596 5.755% $21.0300 $-198 $-363 SCHED
2026-02-05 Thursday 2026-02-06 $400.16 400 365/400/400/435 $12.3600 0.353 3.206% $10.7600 +$1,760 +$1,397 SCHED
2026-02-06 Friday 2026-02-13 $404.81 405 370/405/405/440 $18.7400 0.535 5.442% $18.4400 +$330 +$1,727 SCHED
2026-02-18 Wednesday 2026-02-20 $410.13 410 375/410/410/445 $12.7200 0.363 3.262% $11.6900 +$1,133 +$2,860 SCHED
2026-02-19 Thursday 2026-02-20 $405.31 405 370/405/405/440 $10.2700 0.293 2.628% $9.4500 +$902 +$3,762 SCHED
2026-02-20 Friday 2026-02-27 $410.17 410 375/410/410/445 $16.5400 0.473 4.644% $16.0200 +$572 +$4,334 SCHED
2026-02-23 Monday 2026-02-27 $404.89 405 370/405/405/440 $14.8100 0.423 3.959% $12.9900 +$2,002 +$6,336 SCHED
2026-02-27 Friday 2026-03-06 $405.17 405 370/405/405/440 $16.3300 0.467 4.541% $16.6800 $-385 +$5,951 SCHED
2026-03-05 Thursday 2026-03-06 $404.98 405 370/405/405/440 $9.5300 0.272 2.383% $8.7400 +$869 +$6,820 SCHED
2026-03-18 Wednesday 2026-03-20 $400.03 400 365/400/400/435 $10.7400 0.307 2.777% $9.4800 +$1,386 +$8,206 SCHED
2026-03-23 Monday 2026-03-27 $380.24 380 345/380/380/415 $14.2200 0.406 4.084% $13.6800 +$594 +$8,800 SCHED
2026-03-27 Friday 2026-04-10 $364.68 365 330/365/365/400 $23.3900 0.668 7.941% $20.2300 +$3,476 +$12,276 SCHED
2026-03-31 Tuesday 2026-04-10 $364.56 365 330/365/365/400 $17.9500 0.513 5.878% $18.9900 $-1,144 +$11,132 SCHED
2026-04-06 Monday 2026-04-10 $364.62 365 330/365/365/400 $14.0400 0.401 4.114% $18.6300 $-5,049 +$6,083 SCHED
2026-04-08 Wednesday 2026-04-10 $355.38 355 320/355/355/390 $11.3900 0.325 3.346% $13.7400 $-2,585 +$3,498 SCHED
2026-04-20 Monday 2026-04-24 $399.75 400 365/400/400/435 $20.4800 0.585 6.341% $21.0000 $-572 +$2,926 SCHED
2026-04-21 Tuesday 2026-04-24 $390.39 390 355/390/390/425 $19.3800 0.554 5.943% $19.4900 $-121 +$2,805 SCHED
2026-04-24 Friday 2026-05-01 $380.26 380 345/380/380/415 $16.8900 0.483 5.054% $16.3400 +$605 +$3,410 SCHED
2026-05-11 Monday 2026-05-15 $420.14 420 385/420/420/455 $16.2600 0.465 4.351% $22.8100 $-7,205 $-3,795 SCHED
2026-05-14 Thursday 2026-05-15 $444.81 445 410/445/445/480 $14.5500 0.416 3.536% $11.3100 +$3,564 $-231 SCHED
2026-05-18 Monday 2026-05-22 $415.03 415 380/415/415/450 $16.4900 0.471 4.470% $17.4600 $-1,067 $-1,298 SCHED
2026-05-29 Friday 2026-06-05 $439.56 440 405/440/440/475 $17.6400 0.504 4.721% $16.8000 +$924 $-374 SCHED
2026-06-01 Monday 2026-06-05 $424.94 425 390/425/425/460 $15.6700 0.448 4.097% $15.8700 $-220 $-594 SCHED
2026-06-02 Tuesday 2026-06-05 $414.61 415 380/415/415/450 $14.9600 0.427 3.924% $16.2300 $-1,397 $-1,991 SCHED
2026-06-03 Wednesday 2026-06-05 $419.81 420 385/420/420/455 $13.2500 0.379 3.335% $12.6900 +$616 $-1,375 SCHED
2026-06-09 Tuesday 2026-06-12 $415.13 415 380/415/415/450 $16.0700 0.459 4.334% $20.4100 $-4,774 $-6,149 SCHED
2026-06-18 Thursday 2026-06-26 $390.50 390 355/390/390/425 $17.4400 0.498 5.191% $20.7400 $-3,630 $-9,779 SCHED
2026-06-25 Thursday 2026-06-26 $374.74 375 340/375/375/410 $9.6400 0.275 2.642% $7.8700 +$1,947 $-7,832 SCHED

TSLA Daily Iron Butterfly Backtest • Jan 1 – 2026-07-22, 2026 • Generated July 23, 2026

Entry = 9:40 ET 1-min bar open; Exit = 14:20 ET 1-min bar close. Fallback: daily open/close.

Prices from Alpaca OPRA options bars. No commissions, slippage, or intraday stop monitoring modelled.

Past performance does not guarantee future results. Options trading involves significant risk of loss.