XSP Daily Iron Butterfly Backtest | AI Velocity

Daily Iron Butterfly XSP

Total P&L
+$70,560
Jan 1 → 2026-09-15
Win Rate
60.3%
38 wins / 25 losses
Total Trades
63
Mon–Fri daily entries
Potential Trading Days
176
Days a trade could occur
Avg P&L / Day
+$401
Across 176 trading days
Avg Annual Profit
+$101,029
Avg daily P&L × 252
Capital Required
$14,999
Avg max loss / trade
Avg Annual Return
673.6%
Annual profit / avg capital
Profit Factor
1.72
Gross wins / gross losses
Sharpe Ratio
3.47
Daily × √252 annualised
Max Drawdown
$20,600
Peak-to-trough equity
Payoff Ratio
1.13x
Avg win / avg loss

📈 Equity Curve

⚙️ Strategy Configuration

Ticker
XSP
Contracts
40
Structure
Iron Butterfly
Wing Width
±$10
Entry Days
Mon–Fri
Entry Time
9:40 ET
Exit Time
14:20 ET
Expiry
Next Friday
Profit Target
+90%
Stop Loss
-80%

Trade Filters

FilterStatus
Credit ratio ≥ 0.15 (1.50/wing)✔ Active
Net credit ≥ $1.00✔ Active
Straddle ≥ 0.8% of XSP✔ Active
Straddle ≤ 3.0% of XSP✔ Active
Overnight gap ≤ 0.5% of prior close✔ Active
Prior-day move ≤ 30% of wing (≤$3.00)✔ Active
Avg credit ratio (traded days)0.625 (6.25/10)
Avg straddle % of XSP (traded days)1.211%

Strike Construction

LegStrikeActionRole
Long PutATM − $10BuyOuter put wing — defines max loss on downside
Short PutATMSellATM short — max profit zone (butterfly body)
Short CallATMSellATM short — max profit zone (butterfly body)
Long CallATM + $10BuyOuter call wing — defines max loss on upside

P&L Mechanics

Net credit at open (9:40 ET)Max profit = credit × 100 × 40 (at expiry if XSP = ATM)
XSP moves > $10 from ATMMax loss = ($10 − credit) × 100 × 40
Avg net credit collected$6.2503 per share
Auto-exit profit targetClose if P&L ≥ +90% of max profit
Auto-exit stop lossClose if P&L ≤ −80% of max profit

🚦 Exit Breakdown

Scheduled (14:20 ET)

63

Profit Target +90%

0

Stop Loss −80%

0

Total Trades

63

📊 Win / Loss Analysis

Win Rate Breakdown

Winners (38)60.3%
60.3%
Losers (25)39.7%
39.7%

P&L Breakdown

Average winner+$4,422
Average loser$-3,899
Best trade+$12,200 (2026-04-21)
Worst trade$-10,760 (2026-04-30)
Total gross wins+$168,040
Total gross losses$-97,480

⚠️ Risk Assessment

Max Drawdown

$20,600

Worst Single Loss

$-10,760

Avg Max Loss / Trade

$14,999

Profit Factor

1.72

Sharpe (Annualised)

3.47

Payoff Ratio

1.13x

💡 Key Insights

✅

Profitable Strategy

Total P&L of +$70,560 over 63 trades across Jan–2026-09-15. The iron butterfly's ATM structure collects short-term premium on XSP, a large-cap Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF with implied vol similar in character to SPY.

⚠️

Auto-Exit Applied at Exit Bar Only

The live script (if deployed) would monitor positions every 5 minutes and can exit intraday. This backtest applies +90%/−80% thresholds at the 14:20 ET bar close only, understating how often stops would trigger intraday. Real performance may differ.

⚠️

XSP Volatility Consideration

XSP (Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF — 30 large-cap blue chips) trades a profile very close to SPY — $1 strike increments and an ATM weekly straddle (~0.8% of price) squarely within SPY's own ~0.75–1.2% range. Concentration in 30 names means single-stock earnings surprises can move XSP more than a broader 500-name index, so a ±$10 wing still carries real gap/whipsaw risk. Treat this as a close cousin of the SPY strategy, not a substitute for it.

📋 Full Trade Log is not displayed on mobile devices to prevent page freezing. View this report on a desktop browser to see all 63 trades.

📋 Full Trade Log (63 trades)

DateDayExpiryXSP OpenATM LP/SP/SC/LCCredit OpenCr/WingStraddle%Credit Close P&LCum P&LExit
2026-01-02 Friday 2026-01-09 $687.13 687 677/687/687/697 $5.6300 0.563 1.121% $6.4800 $-3,400 $-3,400 SCHED
2026-01-06 Tuesday 2026-01-09 $690.84 691 681/691/691/701 $5.3200 0.532 0.890% $6.3600 $-4,160 $-7,560 SCHED
2026-01-09 Friday 2026-01-16 $694.64 695 685/695/695/705 $6.8200 0.682 1.349% $6.6900 +$520 $-7,040 SCHED
2026-01-12 Monday 2026-01-16 $695.47 695 685/695/695/705 $6.3800 0.638 1.288% $6.7000 $-1,280 $-8,320 SCHED
2026-01-13 Tuesday 2026-01-16 $698.48 698 688/698/698/708 $5.8100 0.581 1.004% $4.9100 +$3,600 $-4,720 SCHED
2026-01-14 Wednesday 2026-01-16 $693.26 693 683/693/693/703 $5.7700 0.577 0.988% $4.3800 +$5,560 +$840 SCHED
2026-01-16 Friday 2026-01-23 $696.47 696 686/696/696/706 $6.5800 0.658 1.169% $5.1400 +$5,760 +$6,600 SCHED
2026-01-23 Friday 2026-01-30 $690.07 690 680/690/690/700 $6.7100 0.671 1.564% $6.2900 +$1,680 +$8,280 SCHED
2026-01-26 Monday 2026-01-30 $694.38 694 684/694/694/704 $5.2200 0.522 1.256% $6.3000 $-4,320 +$3,960 SCHED
2026-01-27 Tuesday 2026-01-30 $696.28 696 686/696/696/706 $6.4900 0.649 1.155% $6.9500 $-1,840 +$2,120 SCHED
2026-01-28 Wednesday 2026-01-30 $699.86 700 690/700/700/710 $5.4200 0.542 0.946% $4.3200 +$4,400 +$6,520 SCHED
2026-01-30 Friday 2026-02-06 $696.18 696 686/696/696/706 $7.7100 0.771 1.913% $6.2500 +$5,840 +$12,360 SCHED
2026-02-02 Monday 2026-02-06 $694.65 695 685/695/695/705 $6.8800 0.688 1.392% $6.4100 +$1,880 +$14,240 SCHED
2026-02-10 Tuesday 2026-02-13 $696.99 697 687/697/697/707 $6.5700 0.657 1.181% $5.5100 +$4,240 +$18,480 SCHED
2026-02-17 Tuesday 2026-02-20 $685.13 685 675/685/685/695 $9.0900 0.909 1.848% $6.4100 +$10,720 +$29,200 SCHED
2026-02-18 Wednesday 2026-02-20 $686.90 687 677/687/687/697 $6.8100 0.681 1.344% $6.4100 +$1,600 +$30,800 SCHED
2026-02-19 Thursday 2026-02-20 $686.32 686 676/686/686/696 $5.7300 0.573 1.100% $4.3400 +$5,560 +$36,360 SCHED
2026-02-20 Friday 2026-02-27 $686.53 687 677/687/687/697 $6.2400 0.624 1.853% $8.1800 $-7,760 +$28,600 SCHED
2026-03-11 Wednesday 2026-03-13 $681.00 681 671/681/681/691 $7.6100 0.761 1.740% $6.9700 +$2,560 +$31,160 SCHED
2026-04-09 Thursday 2026-04-10 $677.73 678 668/678/678/688 $4.7400 0.474 0.822% $5.5400 $-3,200 +$27,960 SCHED
2026-04-13 Monday 2026-04-17 $679.76 680 670/680/680/690 $8.9300 0.893 1.824% $8.0900 +$3,360 +$31,320 SCHED
2026-04-21 Tuesday 2026-04-24 $711.78 712 702/712/712/722 $7.4200 0.742 1.415% $4.3700 +$12,200 +$43,520 SCHED
2026-04-24 Friday 2026-05-01 $713.07 713 703/713/713/723 $6.5500 0.655 1.872% $8.1700 $-6,480 +$37,040 SCHED
2026-04-28 Tuesday 2026-05-01 $714.77 715 705/715/715/725 $8.4700 0.847 1.693% $6.2800 +$8,760 +$45,800 SCHED
2026-04-29 Wednesday 2026-05-01 $713.25 713 703/713/713/723 $5.3300 0.533 1.144% $6.2200 $-3,560 +$42,240 SCHED
2026-04-30 Thursday 2026-05-01 $714.59 715 705/715/715/725 $5.4600 0.546 0.917% $8.1500 $-10,760 +$31,480 SCHED
2026-05-04 Monday 2026-05-08 $722.55 723 713/723/723/733 $4.8800 0.488 1.045% $6.4500 $-6,280 +$25,200 SCHED
2026-05-08 Friday 2026-05-15 $737.79 738 728/738/738/748 $7.9500 0.795 1.570% $6.9400 +$4,040 +$29,240 SCHED
2026-05-11 Monday 2026-05-15 $740.43 740 730/740/740/750 $6.6300 0.663 1.264% $6.5900 +$160 +$29,400 SCHED
2026-05-12 Tuesday 2026-05-15 $738.90 739 729/739/739/749 $7.2200 0.722 1.337% $5.5000 +$6,880 +$36,280 SCHED
2026-05-13 Wednesday 2026-05-15 $739.62 740 730/740/740/750 $5.7600 0.576 1.009% $6.7000 $-3,760 +$32,520 SCHED
2026-05-18 Monday 2026-05-22 $741.56 742 732/742/742/752 $8.4200 0.842 1.671% $7.9100 +$2,040 +$34,560 SCHED
2026-05-19 Tuesday 2026-05-22 $738.27 738 728/738/738/748 $7.1000 0.710 1.456% $5.1300 +$7,880 +$42,440 SCHED
2026-05-20 Wednesday 2026-05-22 $737.73 738 728/738/738/748 $4.4400 0.444 1.011% $6.5800 $-8,560 +$33,880 SCHED
2026-05-27 Wednesday 2026-05-29 $753.41 753 743/753/753/763 $5.4100 0.541 0.827% $4.3300 +$4,320 +$38,200 SCHED
2026-05-28 Thursday 2026-05-29 $752.17 752 742/752/752/762 $5.2600 0.526 0.860% $5.3600 $-400 +$37,800 SCHED
2026-06-01 Monday 2026-06-05 $759.15 759 749/759/759/769 $6.5200 0.652 1.155% $6.8000 $-1,120 +$36,680 SCHED
2026-06-02 Tuesday 2026-06-05 $759.91 760 750/760/760/770 $5.4500 0.545 0.941% $5.6700 $-880 +$35,800 SCHED
2026-06-03 Wednesday 2026-06-05 $760.78 761 751/761/761/771 $6.0900 0.609 0.937% $5.7700 +$1,280 +$37,080 SCHED
2026-06-16 Tuesday 2026-06-26 $757.64 758 748/758/758/768 $7.7500 0.775 1.683% $4.7000 +$12,200 +$49,280 SCHED
2026-06-22 Monday 2026-06-26 $752.74 753 743/753/753/763 $6.4300 0.643 1.230% $3.6100 +$11,280 +$60,560 SCHED
2026-06-24 Wednesday 2026-06-26 $739.20 739 729/739/739/749 $6.7900 0.679 1.296% $6.1300 +$2,640 +$63,200 SCHED
2026-06-30 Tuesday 2026-07-10 $744.32 744 734/744/744/754 $7.2000 0.720 1.827% $8.1700 $-3,880 +$59,320 SCHED
2026-07-02 Thursday 2026-07-10 $751.68 752 742/752/752/762 $5.9100 0.591 1.144% $4.1900 +$6,880 +$66,200 SCHED
2026-07-13 Monday 2026-07-17 $756.11 756 746/756/756/766 $6.0300 0.603 1.079% $7.3600 $-5,320 +$60,880 SCHED
2026-07-22 Wednesday 2026-07-24 $750.17 750 740/750/750/760 $5.5200 0.552 0.889% $4.9500 +$2,280 +$63,160 SCHED
2026-07-29 Wednesday 2026-07-31 $742.82 743 733/743/743/753 $6.6800 0.668 1.451% $6.0800 +$2,400 +$65,560 SCHED
2026-08-07 Friday 2026-08-14 $774.11 774 764/774/774/784 $5.1700 0.517 1.083% $6.7600 $-6,360 +$59,200 SCHED
2026-08-10 Monday 2026-08-14 $775.77 776 766/776/776/786 $6.5800 0.658 1.102% $6.3000 +$1,120 +$60,320 SCHED
2026-08-11 Tuesday 2026-08-14 $776.13 776 766/776/776/786 $5.4800 0.548 0.892% $5.6000 $-480 +$59,840 SCHED
2026-08-12 Wednesday 2026-08-14 $775.85 776 766/776/776/786 $6.3300 0.633 0.940% $4.4200 +$7,640 +$67,480 SCHED
2026-08-14 Friday 2026-08-21 $781.06 781 771/781/781/791 $6.2800 0.628 1.106% $5.6600 +$2,480 +$69,960 SCHED
2026-08-17 Monday 2026-08-21 $778.40 778 768/778/778/788 $5.3700 0.537 0.861% $4.4900 +$3,520 +$73,480 SCHED
2026-08-18 Tuesday 2026-08-21 $772.12 772 762/772/772/782 $6.0300 0.603 0.934% $4.9100 +$4,480 +$77,960 SCHED
2026-08-24 Monday 2026-08-28 $766.32 766 756/766/766/776 $5.8100 0.581 1.114% $6.4900 $-2,720 +$75,240 SCHED
2026-08-25 Tuesday 2026-08-28 $769.12 769 759/769/769/779 $5.2100 0.521 0.956% $6.1500 $-3,760 +$71,480 SCHED
2026-08-26 Wednesday 2026-08-28 $768.51 769 759/769/769/779 $5.5100 0.551 0.933% $5.5700 $-240 +$71,240 SCHED
2026-08-28 Friday 2026-09-04 $775.25 775 765/775/775/785 $6.6000 0.660 1.187% $5.8800 +$2,880 +$74,120 SCHED
2026-08-31 Monday 2026-09-04 $769.22 769 759/769/769/779 $5.9700 0.597 1.005% $5.4600 +$2,040 +$76,160 SCHED
2026-09-02 Wednesday 2026-09-04 $765.23 765 755/765/765/775 $5.1800 0.518 0.812% $4.8700 +$1,240 +$77,400 SCHED
2026-09-08 Tuesday 2026-09-11 $771.06 771 761/771/771/781 $4.6000 0.460 0.860% $5.5800 $-3,920 +$73,480 SCHED
2026-09-09 Wednesday 2026-09-11 $766.70 767 757/767/767/777 $4.4400 0.444 0.762% $5.2000 $-3,040 +$70,440 SCHED
2026-09-15 Tuesday 2026-09-18 $762.73 763 753/763/763/773 $6.0800 0.608 1.251% $6.0500 +$120 +$70,560 SCHED