DJX Daily Iron Condor Backtest | AI Velocity

Daily Iron Condor DJX

⚠️

Research Backtest — Not Yet a Live Strategy

DJX has no direct spot price feed on Alpaca. The "DJX (est.)" level shown throughout this report is derived from DIA's price × a fixed put-call-parity ratio computed once from real DJX option bars — it is an estimate used only to pick ATM strikes. All option prices and P&L are from real Alpaca OPRA DJX bars.

Total P&L
$-2,640
Jan 1 → 2026-09-15
Win Rate
52.2%
12 wins / 11 losses
Total Trades
23
Mon–Thu daily entries
Potential Trading Days
176
Days a trade could occur
Avg P&L / Day
$-15
Across 176 trading days
Avg Annual Profit
$-3,780
Avg daily P&L × 252
Capital Required
$17,824
Avg max loss / trade
Avg Annual Return
-21.2%
Annual profit / avg capital
Profit Factor
0.81
Gross wins / gross losses
Sharpe Ratio
-1.24
Daily × √252 annualised
Max Drawdown
$4,280
Peak-to-trough equity
Payoff Ratio
0.75x
Avg win / avg loss

📈 Equity Curve

⚙️ Strategy Configuration

Option Root
DJX
Contracts
40
Structure
Iron Condor
Short Spread
±$10
Wing Width
$5
Entry Days
Mon–Thu
Entry Time
9:40 ET
Exit Time
14:20 ET
Expiry
Next Friday
Profit Target
+90%
Stop Loss
-80%

Trade Filters

FilterStatus
Short strangle ≥ 0.1% of DJX (est.)✔ Active
Avg credit ratio (traded days)0.109 (0.54/wing)
Avg short strangle % of DJX (est., traded days)0.266%

Strike Construction

LegStrikeActionRole
Long PutATM − $15BuyOuter put wing — defines max loss on downside
Short PutATM − $10SellShort put — lower body of condor
Short CallATM + $10SellShort call — upper body of condor
Long CallATM + $15BuyOuter call wing — defines max loss on upside

P&L Mechanics

Net credit at open (9:40 ET)Max profit = credit × 100 × 40 (if DJX stays between ±$10 of ATM)
DJX moves > $15 from ATMMax loss = ($5 − credit) × 100 × 40
Avg net credit collected$0.5439 per share
Auto-exit profit targetClose if P&L ≥ +90% of max profit
Auto-exit stop lossClose if P&L ≤ −80% of max profit

🚦 Exit Breakdown

Scheduled (14:20 ET)

17

Profit Target +90%

1

Stop Loss −80%

5

Total Trades

23

📊 Win / Loss Analysis

Win Rate Breakdown

Winners (12)52.2%
52.2%
Losers (11)47.8%
47.8%

P&L Breakdown

Average winner+$960
Average loser$-1,287
Best trade+$2,280 (2026-02-09)
Worst trade$-3,040 (2026-04-13)
Total gross wins+$11,520
Total gross losses$-14,160

⚠️ Risk Assessment

Max Drawdown

$4,280

Worst Single Loss

$-3,040

Avg Max Loss / Trade

$17,824

Profit Factor

0.81

Sharpe (Annualised)

-1.24

Payoff Ratio

0.75x

💡 Key Insights

❌

Net Loss Period

Total P&L of $-2,640 over 23 trades. Elevated DJX realized volatility caused frequent wing breaches during this period. Consider widening SHORT_SPREAD or reducing QTY.

⚠️

Auto-Exit Applied at Exit Bar Only

A live version would monitor positions every few minutes and could exit intraday. This backtest applies +90%/−80% thresholds at the 14:20 ET bar close only, understating how often stops would trigger intraday. Real performance may differ.

⚠️

Cash-Settled / European-Style — No Assignment Risk

DJX is cash-settled and European-style (no early exercise), unlike the equity/ETF condor scripts in this repo. Section 1256 tax treatment (60/40 long/short-term capital gains) would also apply to live DJX trading, unlike DIA.

📋 Full Trade Log is not displayed on mobile devices to prevent page freezing. View this report on a desktop browser to see all 23 trades.

📋 Full Trade Log (23 trades)

DateDayExpiryDJX Open (est.)ATM LP/SP/SC/LCCredit OpenCr/WingStrangle%Credit Close P&LCum P&LExit
2026-01-12 Monday 2026-01-16 $491.03 490 475/480/500/505 $0.3700 0.074 0.175% $0.8400 $-1,880 $-1,880 ✗ SL80
2026-01-20 Tuesday 2026-01-23 $486.20 485 470/475/495/500 $0.3800 0.076 0.156% $0.4000 $-80 $-1,960 SCHED
2026-01-21 Wednesday 2026-01-23 $485.93 485 470/475/495/500 $0.2600 0.052 0.103% $0.2500 +$40 $-1,920 SCHED
2026-02-02 Monday 2026-02-06 $489.32 490 475/480/500/505 $0.1900 0.038 0.149% $0.5800 $-1,560 $-3,480 ✗ SL80
2026-02-09 Monday 2026-02-13 $498.72 500 485/490/510/515 $1.2000 0.240 0.918% $0.6300 +$2,280 $-1,200 SCHED
2026-02-10 Tuesday 2026-02-13 $502.15 500 485/490/510/515 $0.1300 0.026 0.108% $0.2600 $-520 $-1,720 ✗ SL80
2026-02-17 Tuesday 2026-02-20 $495.12 495 480/485/505/510 $0.2900 0.058 0.174% $0.4000 $-440 $-2,160 SCHED
2026-02-23 Monday 2026-02-27 $494.87 495 480/485/505/510 $0.7000 0.140 0.285% $1.2300 $-2,120 $-4,280 SCHED
2026-02-24 Tuesday 2026-02-27 $489.75 490 475/480/500/505 $0.4800 0.096 0.172% $0.0800 +$1,600 $-2,680 SCHED
2026-03-02 Monday 2026-03-06 $484.57 485 470/475/495/500 $1.3200 0.264 0.514% $0.8200 +$2,000 $-680 SCHED
2026-03-03 Tuesday 2026-03-06 $479.59 480 465/470/490/495 $0.8700 0.174 0.463% $1.4700 $-2,400 $-3,080 SCHED
2026-03-04 Wednesday 2026-03-06 $483.80 485 470/475/495/500 $0.3700 0.074 0.159% $-0.0200 +$1,560 $-1,520 ✓ PT90
2026-03-09 Monday 2026-03-13 $468.26 470 455/460/480/485 $0.8100 0.162 0.750% $0.4400 +$1,480 $-40 SCHED
2026-03-11 Wednesday 2026-03-13 $475.97 475 460/465/485/490 $0.6500 0.130 0.231% $0.7500 $-400 $-440 SCHED
2026-03-12 Thursday 2026-03-13 $468.57 470 455/460/480/485 $0.5500 0.110 0.173% $0.2400 +$1,240 +$800 SCHED
2026-03-25 Wednesday 2026-03-27 $465.34 465 450/455/475/480 $0.5300 0.106 0.206% $0.4200 +$440 +$1,240 SCHED
2026-04-13 Monday 2026-04-17 $474.71 475 460/465/485/490 $0.2000 0.040 0.228% $0.9600 $-3,040 $-1,800 ✗ SL80
2026-05-18 Monday 2026-05-22 $494.19 495 480/485/505/510 $0.7100 0.142 0.241% $0.5600 +$600 $-1,200 SCHED
2026-05-19 Tuesday 2026-05-22 $492.68 495 480/485/505/510 $0.3300 0.066 0.144% $0.2900 +$160 $-1,040 SCHED
2026-05-20 Wednesday 2026-05-22 $492.58 495 480/485/505/510 $0.5700 0.114 0.148% $0.5600 +$40 $-1,000 SCHED
2026-07-28 Tuesday 2026-07-31 $523.46 525 510/515/535/540 $0.0900 0.018 0.138% $0.5100 $-1,680 $-2,680 ✗ SL80
2026-07-29 Wednesday 2026-07-31 $521.52 520 505/510/530/535 $0.5600 0.112 0.196% $0.5700 $-40 $-2,720 SCHED
2026-08-04 Tuesday 2026-08-07 $536.69 535 520/525/545/550 $0.9500 0.190 0.293% $0.9300 +$80 $-2,640 SCHED