SPXW Daily Iron Condor Backtest | AI Velocity

Daily Iron Condor SPXW

⚠️

Research Backtest — Not Yet a Live Strategy

SPX has no direct spot price feed on Alpaca. The "SPX (est.)" level shown throughout this report is derived from SPY's price × a fixed put-call-parity ratio computed once from real SPXW option bars — it is an estimate used only to pick ATM strikes. All option prices and P&L are from real Alpaca OPRA SPXW bars.

Total P&L
+$99,640
Jan 1 → 2026-09-15
Win Rate
64.3%
45 wins / 25 losses
Total Trades
70
Mon–Thu daily entries
Potential Trading Days
176
Days a trade could occur
Avg P&L / Day
+$566
Across 176 trading days
Avg Annual Profit
+$142,666
Avg daily P&L × 252
Capital Required
$12,483
Avg max loss / trade
Avg Annual Return
1,142.9%
Annual profit / avg capital
Profit Factor
2.51
Gross wins / gross losses
Sharpe Ratio
4.42
Daily × √252 annualised
Max Drawdown
$20,560
Peak-to-trough equity
Payoff Ratio
1.39x
Avg win / avg loss

📈 Equity Curve

⚙️ Strategy Configuration

Option Root
SPXW
Contracts
4
Structure
Iron Condor
Short Spread
±$100
Wing Width
$50
Entry Days
Mon–Thu
Entry Time
9:40 ET
Exit Time
14:20 ET
Expiry
Next Friday
Profit Target
+90%
Stop Loss
-80%

Trade Filters

FilterStatus
Credit ratio ≥ 0.2 (10.00/wing)✔ Active
Short strangle ≥ 0.1% of SPX (est.)✔ Active
Short strangle ≤ 3.0% of SPX (est.)✔ Active
Overnight gap ≤ 3.0% of prior close✔ Active
Avg credit ratio (traded days)0.376 (18.79/wing)
Avg short strangle % of SPX (est., traded days)0.646%

Strike Construction

LegStrikeActionRole
Long PutATM − $150BuyOuter put wing — defines max loss on downside
Short PutATM − $100SellShort put — lower body of condor
Short CallATM + $100SellShort call — upper body of condor
Long CallATM + $150BuyOuter call wing — defines max loss on upside

P&L Mechanics

Net credit at open (9:40 ET)Max profit = credit × 100 × 4 (if SPX stays between ±$100 of ATM)
SPX moves > $150 from ATMMax loss = ($50 − credit) × 100 × 4
Avg net credit collected$18.7921 per share
Auto-exit profit targetClose if P&L ≥ +90% of max profit
Auto-exit stop lossClose if P&L ≤ −80% of max profit

🚦 Exit Breakdown

Scheduled (14:20 ET)

65

Profit Target +90%

2

Stop Loss −80%

3

Total Trades

70

📊 Win / Loss Analysis

Win Rate Breakdown

Winners (45)64.3%
64.3%
Losers (25)35.7%
35.7%

P&L Breakdown

Average winner+$3,685
Average loser$-2,647
Best trade+$28,284 (2026-04-07)
Worst trade$-14,440 (2026-03-09)
Total gross wins+$165,824
Total gross losses$-66,184

⚠️ Risk Assessment

Max Drawdown

$20,560

Worst Single Loss

$-14,440

Avg Max Loss / Trade

$12,483

Profit Factor

2.51

Sharpe (Annualised)

4.42

Payoff Ratio

1.39x

💡 Key Insights

✅

Profitable Strategy

Total P&L of +$99,640 over 70 trades across Jan–2026-09-15. The iron condor's OTM structure collects premium on SPXW while allowing a ±$100 buffer before max loss. SPX's implied volatility typically generates attractive short strangle premiums.

⚠️

Auto-Exit Applied at Exit Bar Only

A live version would monitor positions every few minutes and could exit intraday. This backtest applies +90%/−80% thresholds at the 14:20 ET bar close only, understating how often stops would trigger intraday. Real performance may differ.

⚠️

Cash-Settled / European-Style — No Assignment Risk

SPXW is cash-settled and European-style (no early exercise), unlike the equity/ETF condor scripts in this repo. Section 1256 tax treatment (60/40 long/short-term capital gains) would also apply to live SPXW trading, unlike SPY.

📋 Full Trade Log is not displayed on mobile devices to prevent page freezing. View this report on a desktop browser to see all 70 trades.

📋 Full Trade Log (70 trades)

DateDayExpirySPX Open (est.)ATM LP/SP/SC/LCCredit OpenCr/WingStrangle%Credit Close P&LCum P&LExit
2026-01-20 Tuesday 2026-01-23 $6853.57 6855 6705/6755/6955/7005 $13.0300 0.261 0.467% $13.2500 $-88 $-88 SCHED
2026-01-26 Monday 2026-01-30 $6946.06 6945 6795/6845/7045/7095 $19.5900 0.392 0.464% $6.2700 +$5,328 +$5,240 SCHED
2026-02-02 Monday 2026-02-06 $6948.77 6950 6800/6850/7050/7100 $13.2000 0.264 0.404% $12.0800 +$448 +$5,688 SCHED
2026-02-05 Thursday 2026-02-06 $6852.37 6850 6700/6750/6950/7000 $13.9700 0.279 0.362% $7.5500 +$2,568 +$8,256 SCHED
2026-02-09 Monday 2026-02-13 $6939.53 6940 6790/6840/7040/7090 $15.6000 0.312 0.469% $11.2200 +$1,752 +$10,008 SCHED
2026-02-17 Tuesday 2026-02-20 $6853.57 6855 6705/6755/6955/7005 $10.5700 0.211 0.503% $15.7800 $-2,084 +$7,924 SCHED
2026-02-18 Wednesday 2026-02-20 $6871.25 6870 6720/6770/6970/7020 $11.5600 0.231 0.335% $6.1700 +$2,156 +$10,080 SCHED
2026-02-23 Monday 2026-02-27 $6923.77 6925 6775/6825/7025/7075 $13.4500 0.269 0.536% $18.9700 $-2,208 +$7,872 SCHED
2026-02-24 Tuesday 2026-02-27 $6854.68 6855 6705/6755/6955/7005 $21.1300 0.423 0.670% $20.4200 +$284 +$8,156 SCHED
2026-03-02 Monday 2026-03-06 $6838.61 6840 6690/6740/6940/6990 $45.9900 0.920 1.165% $34.5500 +$4,576 +$12,732 SCHED
2026-03-04 Wednesday 2026-03-06 $6838.11 6840 6690/6740/6940/6990 $33.7500 0.675 0.766% $8.3500 +$10,160 +$22,892 SCHED
2026-03-09 Monday 2026-03-13 $6674.62 6675 6525/6575/6775/6825 $28.5000 0.570 1.424% $64.6000 $-14,440 +$8,452 ✗ SL80
2026-03-10 Tuesday 2026-03-13 $6798.84 6800 6650/6700/6900/6950 $19.1800 0.384 0.691% $28.5000 $-3,728 +$4,724 SCHED
2026-03-11 Wednesday 2026-03-13 $6812.30 6810 6660/6710/6910/6960 $13.6000 0.272 0.595% $19.5800 $-2,392 +$2,332 SCHED
2026-03-12 Thursday 2026-03-13 $6741.00 6740 6590/6640/6840/6890 $20.9100 0.418 0.443% $11.6400 +$3,708 +$6,040 SCHED
2026-03-16 Monday 2026-03-20 $6718.21 6720 6570/6620/6820/6870 $30.2700 0.605 1.190% $26.3800 +$1,556 +$7,596 SCHED
2026-03-17 Tuesday 2026-03-20 $6767.16 6765 6615/6665/6865/6915 $40.3500 0.807 0.943% $14.5300 +$10,328 +$17,924 SCHED
2026-03-19 Thursday 2026-03-20 $6589.87 6590 6440/6490/6690/6740 $14.3400 0.287 0.415% $7.5500 +$2,716 +$20,640 SCHED
2026-03-23 Monday 2026-03-27 $6610.05 6610 6460/6510/6710/6760 $37.8700 0.757 2.013% $25.0200 +$5,140 +$25,780 SCHED
2026-03-24 Tuesday 2026-03-27 $6539.56 6540 6390/6440/6640/6690 $22.1000 0.442 1.040% $10.7600 +$4,536 +$30,316 SCHED
2026-03-25 Wednesday 2026-03-27 $6626.52 6625 6475/6525/6725/6775 $29.6500 0.593 0.685% $14.9600 +$5,876 +$36,192 SCHED
2026-03-26 Thursday 2026-03-27 $6535.24 6535 6385/6435/6635/6685 $10.7900 0.216 0.283% $9.5300 +$504 +$36,696 SCHED
2026-03-30 Monday 2026-04-10 $6405.20 6405 6255/6305/6505/6555 $26.3100 0.526 2.398% $41.1000 $-5,916 +$30,780 SCHED
2026-03-31 Tuesday 2026-04-10 $6424.38 6425 6275/6325/6525/6575 $20.8500 0.417 1.946% $47.2400 $-10,556 +$20,224 ✗ SL80
2026-04-01 Wednesday 2026-04-10 $6586.00 6585 6435/6485/6685/6735 $27.3500 0.547 1.483% $6.6000 +$8,300 +$28,524 SCHED
2026-04-02 Thursday 2026-04-10 $6480.61 6480 6330/6380/6580/6630 $39.9300 0.799 1.699% $28.9800 +$4,380 +$32,904 SCHED
2026-04-06 Monday 2026-04-10 $6593.38 6595 6445/6495/6695/6745 $26.7400 0.535 0.948% $23.4100 +$1,332 +$34,236 SCHED
2026-04-07 Tuesday 2026-04-10 $6579.12 6580 6430/6480/6680/6730 $28.6900 0.574 1.029% $-42.0200 +$28,284 +$62,520 ✓ PT90
2026-04-13 Monday 2026-04-17 $6799.85 6800 6650/6700/6900/6950 $14.8500 0.297 0.499% $21.9000 $-2,820 +$59,700 SCHED
2026-04-14 Tuesday 2026-04-17 $6919.15 6920 6770/6820/7020/7070 $14.3800 0.288 0.333% $13.9900 +$156 +$59,856 SCHED
2026-04-20 Monday 2026-04-24 $7115.57 7115 6965/7015/7215/7265 $13.9900 0.280 0.451% $14.0200 $-12 +$59,844 SCHED
2026-04-21 Tuesday 2026-04-24 $7120.19 7120 6970/7020/7220/7270 $13.1400 0.263 0.403% $6.0800 +$2,824 +$62,668 SCHED
2026-04-27 Monday 2026-05-01 $7173.81 7175 7025/7075/7275/7325 $17.1100 0.342 0.533% $13.9500 +$1,264 +$63,932 SCHED
2026-04-28 Tuesday 2026-05-01 $7150.11 7150 7000/7050/7250/7300 $22.1000 0.442 0.471% $14.0500 +$3,220 +$67,152 SCHED
2026-04-29 Wednesday 2026-05-01 $7134.85 7135 6985/7035/7235/7285 $15.6900 0.314 0.351% $7.9500 +$3,096 +$70,248 SCHED
2026-05-04 Monday 2026-05-08 $7227.94 7230 7080/7130/7330/7380 $18.0300 0.361 0.438% $15.2400 +$1,116 +$71,364 SCHED
2026-05-11 Monday 2026-05-15 $7406.79 7405 7255/7305/7505/7555 $14.0000 0.280 0.412% $15.7300 $-692 +$70,672 SCHED
2026-05-19 Tuesday 2026-05-22 $7385.20 7385 7235/7285/7485/7535 $16.9800 0.340 0.455% $6.1700 +$4,324 +$74,996 SCHED
2026-05-20 Wednesday 2026-05-22 $7379.77 7380 7230/7280/7480/7530 $10.1900 0.204 0.307% $11.5000 $-524 +$74,472 SCHED
2026-05-26 Tuesday 2026-05-29 $7528.60 7530 7380/7430/7630/7680 $11.7700 0.235 0.274% $5.4500 +$2,528 +$77,000 SCHED
2026-06-01 Monday 2026-06-05 $7593.97 7595 7445/7495/7695/7745 $11.9000 0.238 0.310% $1.0600 +$4,336 +$81,336 ✓ PT90
2026-06-08 Monday 2026-06-12 $7447.21 7445 7295/7345/7545/7595 $23.3000 0.466 0.966% $15.6500 +$3,060 +$84,396 SCHED
2026-06-09 Tuesday 2026-06-12 $7475.47 7475 7325/7375/7575/7625 $10.6600 0.213 0.367% $22.8000 $-4,856 +$79,540 ✗ SL80
2026-06-10 Wednesday 2026-06-12 $7376.56 7375 7225/7275/7475/7525 $14.0900 0.282 0.575% $14.5900 $-200 +$79,340 SCHED
2026-06-11 Thursday 2026-06-12 $7302.95 7305 7155/7205/7405/7455 $19.4500 0.389 0.418% $24.0000 $-1,820 +$77,520 SCHED
2026-06-15 Monday 2026-06-26 $7562.24 7560 7410/7460/7660/7710 $21.7900 0.436 0.793% $23.8900 $-840 +$76,680 SCHED
2026-06-16 Tuesday 2026-06-26 $7578.91 7580 7430/7480/7680/7730 $18.2900 0.366 0.681% $14.2700 +$1,608 +$78,288 SCHED
2026-06-17 Wednesday 2026-06-26 $7534.92 7535 7385/7435/7635/7685 $16.9200 0.338 0.674% $28.3000 $-4,552 +$73,736 SCHED
2026-06-18 Thursday 2026-06-26 $7477.08 7475 7325/7375/7575/7625 $18.0300 0.361 0.703% $21.6100 $-1,432 +$72,304 SCHED
2026-06-23 Tuesday 2026-06-26 $7374.55 7375 7225/7275/7475/7525 $13.5900 0.272 0.543% $16.3700 $-1,112 +$71,192 SCHED
2026-06-24 Wednesday 2026-06-26 $7394.43 7395 7245/7295/7495/7545 $15.4500 0.309 0.384% $9.2900 +$2,464 +$73,656 SCHED
2026-06-29 Monday 2026-07-10 $7410.40 7410 7260/7310/7510/7560 $21.6800 0.434 1.041% $23.9800 $-920 +$72,736 SCHED
2026-06-30 Tuesday 2026-07-10 $7445.65 7445 7295/7345/7545/7595 $22.3200 0.446 0.806% $27.0700 $-1,900 +$70,836 SCHED
2026-07-01 Wednesday 2026-07-10 $7461.01 7460 7310/7360/7560/7610 $20.9900 0.420 0.647% $19.8400 +$460 +$71,296 SCHED
2026-07-06 Monday 2026-07-10 $7514.14 7515 7365/7415/7615/7665 $11.5500 0.231 0.303% $6.5200 +$2,012 +$73,308 SCHED
2026-07-13 Monday 2026-07-17 $7563.64 7565 7415/7465/7665/7715 $10.1600 0.203 0.265% $13.1800 $-1,208 +$72,100 SCHED
2026-07-14 Tuesday 2026-07-17 $7543.26 7545 7395/7445/7645/7695 $15.0500 0.301 0.306% $7.3400 +$3,084 +$75,184 SCHED
2026-07-20 Monday 2026-07-24 $7513.13 7515 7365/7415/7615/7665 $32.0200 0.640 0.609% $12.0900 +$7,972 +$83,156 SCHED
2026-07-21 Tuesday 2026-07-24 $7484.31 7485 7335/7385/7585/7635 $11.0700 0.221 0.297% $7.3400 +$1,492 +$84,648 SCHED
2026-07-27 Monday 2026-07-31 $7480.39 7480 7330/7380/7580/7630 $15.4800 0.310 0.486% $19.4600 $-1,592 +$83,056 SCHED
2026-07-28 Tuesday 2026-07-31 $7409.20 7410 7260/7310/7510/7560 $18.5700 0.371 0.548% $15.9500 +$1,048 +$84,104 SCHED
2026-07-29 Wednesday 2026-07-31 $7430.69 7430 7280/7330/7530/7580 $17.1000 0.342 0.450% $5.0100 +$4,836 +$88,940 SCHED
2026-08-05 Wednesday 2026-08-07 $7795.91 7795 7645/7695/7895/7945 $10.8800 0.218 0.328% $9.2500 +$652 +$89,592 SCHED
2026-08-10 Monday 2026-08-14 $7760.27 7760 7610/7660/7860/7910 $12.9700 0.259 0.329% $9.8900 +$1,232 +$90,824 SCHED
2026-08-24 Monday 2026-08-28 $7665.77 7665 7515/7565/7765/7815 $16.2600 0.325 0.373% $12.9800 +$1,312 +$92,136 SCHED
2026-08-25 Tuesday 2026-08-28 $7693.74 7695 7545/7595/7795/7845 $11.4800 0.230 0.304% $7.6600 +$1,528 +$93,664 SCHED
2026-09-08 Tuesday 2026-09-11 $7713.17 7715 7565/7615/7815/7865 $10.7400 0.215 0.252% $10.9500 $-84 +$93,580 SCHED
2026-09-10 Thursday 2026-09-11 $7616.01 7615 7465/7515/7715/7765 $13.6500 0.273 0.234% $5.8700 +$3,112 +$96,692 SCHED
2026-09-14 Monday 2026-09-18 $7617.22 7615 7465/7515/7715/7765 $16.9900 0.340 0.495% $9.1000 +$3,156 +$99,848 SCHED
2026-09-15 Tuesday 2026-09-18 $7629.82 7630 7480/7530/7730/7780 $11.5200 0.230 0.426% $12.0400 $-208 +$99,640 SCHED