TSLA Iron Condor Backtest: Daily Options Strategy | AI Velocity

Daily Iron Condor TSLA

Total P&L
$-2,960
Jan 1 → Apr 14, 2026
Win Rate
60.0%
15 wins / 9 losses
Total Trades
25
Mon–Thu daily entries
Potential Trading Days
138
Days a trade could occur
Avg P&L / Day
$-21
Across 138 trading days
Avg Annual Profit
$-5,405
Avg daily P&L × 252
Capital Required
$11,149
Avg max loss / trade
Avg Annual Return
-48.5%
Annual profit / avg capital
Profit Factor
0.82
Gross wins / gross losses
Sharpe Ratio
-1.11
Daily × √252 annualised
Max Drawdown
$9,920
Peak-to-trough equity
Payoff Ratio
0.49x
Avg win / avg loss

📈 Equity Curve

⚙️ Strategy Configuration

Ticker
TSLA
Contracts
40
Structure
Iron Condor
Short Spread
±$10
Wing Width
$5
Entry Days
Mon–Thu
Entry Time
9:38 ET
Exit Time
14:20 ET
Expiry
Next Friday
Profit Target
+90%
Stop Loss
-80%

Strike Construction

LegStrikeActionRole
Long PutATM − $15BuyOuter put wing — defines max loss on downside
Short PutATM − $10SellLower short strike — profit if TSLA stays above
Short CallATM + $10SellUpper short strike — profit if TSLA stays below
Long CallATM + $15BuyOuter call wing — defines max loss on upside

P&L Mechanics

Net credit at open (9:38 ET)Max profit = credit × 100 × 40 (if TSLA stays between ±$10 of ATM)
TSLA moves > $10 from ATM toward a short strikePartial loss; full wing loss if breach exceeds $15
Max loss per trade($5 wing − credit) × 100 × 40
Avg net credit collected$2.2128 per share
Auto-exit profit targetClose if P&L ≥ +90% of max profit
Auto-exit stop lossClose if P&L ≤ −80% of max profit

🚦 Exit Breakdown

Scheduled (14:20 ET)

25

Profit Target +90%

0

Stop Loss −80%

0

Total Trades

25

📊 Win / Loss Analysis

Win Rate Breakdown

Winners (15)60.0%
60.0%
Losers (9)40.0%
40.0%

P&L Breakdown

Average winner+$899
Average loser$-1,827
Best trade+$1,960 (2026-06-25)
Worst trade$-5,800 (2026-07-02)
Total gross wins+$13,480
Total gross losses$-16,440

⚠️ Risk Assessment

Max Drawdown

$9,920

Worst Single Loss

$-5,800

Avg Max Loss / Trade

$11,149

Profit Factor

0.82

Sharpe (Annualised)

-1.11

Payoff Ratio

0.49x

💡 Key Insights

❌

Net Loss Period

Total P&L of $-2,960 over 25 trades. TSLA's high realized intraday volatility during this period caused frequent short-strike breaches.

⚠️

Auto-Exit Applied at Exit Bar Only

The live script monitors positions every 5 minutes and exits intraday when thresholds are hit. This backtest applies +90%/−80% at the 14:20 bar close only — stop losses and profit targets will be understated relative to live.

⚠️

TSLA Intraday Volatility Risk

TSLA can move $20–$50 in a single session. The $10 short spread provides a narrow profit zone. Wing width of $5 caps loss per side but max loss ($5 − credit) × $4,000 per breach is still material. Consider widening the short spread or reducing qty during high-IV regimes.

📋 Full Trade Log is not displayed on mobile devices to prevent page freezing. View this report on a desktop browser to see all 25 trades.

📋 Full Trade Log (25 trades)

DateDayExpiryTSLA OpenATM LP/SP/SC/LCCredit OpenCredit Close P&LCum P&LExit
2026-01-20 Tuesday 2026-01-23 $424.79 425 410/415/435/440 $2.4100 $2.3300 +$320 +$320 SCHED
2026-01-28 Wednesday 2026-01-30 $434.73 435 420/425/445/450 $3.5200 $3.4700 +$200 +$520 SCHED
2026-02-03 Tuesday 2026-02-06 $425.41 425 410/415/435/440 $2.2800 $2.6500 $-1,480 $-960 SCHED
2026-02-05 Thursday 2026-02-06 $400.14 400 385/390/410/415 $2.1300 $1.7200 +$1,640 +$680 SCHED
2026-02-09 Monday 2026-02-13 $410.00 410 395/400/420/425 $2.7000 $3.0000 $-1,200 $-520 SCHED
2026-02-11 Wednesday 2026-02-13 $434.79 435 420/425/445/450 $2.0400 $2.1700 $-520 $-1,040 SCHED
2026-02-18 Wednesday 2026-02-20 $410.38 410 395/400/420/425 $2.0000 $1.9500 +$200 $-840 SCHED
2026-02-26 Thursday 2026-02-27 $410.50 410 395/400/420/425 $1.2900 $0.9300 +$1,440 +$600 SCHED
2026-03-02 Monday 2026-03-06 $394.80 395 380/385/405/410 $2.6900 $2.4000 +$1,160 +$1,760 SCHED
2026-03-05 Thursday 2026-03-06 $405.09 405 390/395/415/420 $1.4400 $1.3200 +$480 +$2,240 SCHED
2026-03-11 Wednesday 2026-03-13 $409.55 410 395/400/420/425 $1.9600 $1.7400 +$880 +$3,120 SCHED
2026-03-16 Monday 2026-03-20 $399.71 400 385/390/410/415 $2.4200 $2.3800 +$160 +$3,280 SCHED
2026-03-17 Tuesday 2026-03-20 $395.07 395 380/385/405/410 $2.1300 $2.0400 +$360 +$3,640 SCHED
2026-03-18 Wednesday 2026-03-20 $400.21 400 385/390/410/415 $1.6900 $1.4500 +$960 +$4,600 SCHED
2026-03-25 Wednesday 2026-03-27 $395.05 395 380/385/405/410 $1.8800 $1.7500 +$520 +$5,120 SCHED
2026-05-07 Thursday 2026-05-08 $410.09 410 395/400/420/425 $1.8300 $1.3700 +$1,840 +$6,960 SCHED
2026-05-11 Monday 2026-05-15 $420.41 420 405/410/430/435 $2.8500 $3.5700 $-2,880 +$4,080 SCHED
2026-05-20 Wednesday 2026-05-22 $409.72 410 395/400/420/425 $2.2800 $2.4700 $-760 +$3,320 SCHED
2026-06-02 Tuesday 2026-06-05 $415.00 415 400/405/425/430 $2.5100 $2.7900 $-1,120 +$2,200 SCHED
2026-06-04 Thursday 2026-06-05 $425.15 425 410/415/435/440 $1.8800 $1.5400 +$1,360 +$3,560 SCHED
2026-06-22 Monday 2026-06-26 $399.70 400 385/390/410/415 $2.3800 $2.8500 $-1,880 +$1,680 SCHED
2026-06-23 Tuesday 2026-06-26 $389.88 390 375/380/400/405 $2.6200 $2.6200 +$0 +$1,680 SCHED
2026-06-25 Thursday 2026-06-26 $375.24 375 360/365/385/390 $1.5200 $1.0300 +$1,960 +$3,640 SCHED
2026-07-02 Thursday 2026-07-10 $419.81 420 405/410/430/435 $2.9000 $4.3500 $-5,800 $-2,160 SCHED
2026-07-15 Wednesday 2026-07-17 $404.65 405 390/395/415/420 $1.9700 $2.1700 $-800 $-2,960 SCHED