XLE Daily Iron Condor Backtest | AI Velocity

Daily Iron Condor XLE

Total P&L
+$6,920
Jan 1 → 2026-09-15
Win Rate
64.3%
63 wins / 32 losses
Total Trades
98
Mon–Thu daily entries
Potential Trading Days
176
Days a trade could occur
Avg P&L / Day
+$39
Across 176 trading days
Avg Annual Profit
+$9,908
Avg daily P&L × 252
Capital Required
$3,395
Avg max loss / trade
Avg Annual Return
291.8%
Annual profit / avg capital
Profit Factor
1.73
Gross wins / gross losses
Sharpe Ratio
3.34
Daily × √252 annualised
Max Drawdown
$2,840
Peak-to-trough equity
Payoff Ratio
0.88x
Avg win / avg loss

📈 Equity Curve

⚙️ Strategy Configuration

Ticker
XLE
Contracts
40
Structure
Iron Condor
Short Spread
±$2
Wing Width
$1
Entry Days
Mon–Thu
Entry Time
9:40 ET
Exit Time
14:20 ET
Expiry
Next Friday
Profit Target
+90%
Stop Loss
-80%

Trade Filters

FilterStatus
Short strangle ≥ 0.1% of XLE✔ Active
Avg credit ratio (traded days)0.151 (0.15/wing)
Avg short strangle % of XLE (traded days)0.534%

Strike Construction

LegStrikeActionRole
Long PutATM − $3BuyOuter put wing — defines max loss on downside
Short PutATM − $2SellShort put — lower body of condor
Short CallATM + $2SellShort call — upper body of condor
Long CallATM + $3BuyOuter call wing — defines max loss on upside

P&L Mechanics

Net credit at open (9:40 ET)Max profit = credit × 100 × 40 (if XLE stays between ±$2 of ATM)
XLE moves > $3 from ATMMax loss = ($1 − credit) × 100 × 40
Avg net credit collected$0.1512 per share
Auto-exit profit targetClose if P&L ≥ +90% of max profit
Auto-exit stop lossClose if P&L ≤ −80% of max profit

🚦 Exit Breakdown

Scheduled (14:20 ET)

81

Profit Target +90%

7

Stop Loss −80%

10

Total Trades

98

📊 Win / Loss Analysis

Win Rate Breakdown

Winners (63)64.3%
64.3%
Losers (32)35.7%
35.7%

P&L Breakdown

Average winner+$260
Average loser$-295
Best trade+$1,000 (2026-08-31)
Worst trade$-1,120 (2026-04-01)
Total gross wins+$16,360
Total gross losses$-9,440

⚠️ Risk Assessment

Max Drawdown

$2,840

Worst Single Loss

$-1,120

Avg Max Loss / Trade

$3,395

Profit Factor

1.73

Sharpe (Annualised)

3.34

Payoff Ratio

0.88x

💡 Key Insights

✅

Profitable Strategy

Total P&L of +$6,920 over 98 trades across Jan–2026-09-15. The iron condor's OTM structure collects premium on XLE while allowing a ±$2 buffer before max loss. XLE's implied volatility typically generates attractive short strangle premiums.

⚠️

Auto-Exit Applied at Exit Bar Only

The live script monitors positions every 5 minutes and can exit intraday. This backtest applies +90%/−80% thresholds at the 14:20 ET bar close only, understating how often stops would trigger intraday. Real performance may differ.

⚠️

XLE Wing Width Consideration

With XLE, a ±$1 wing on a $2 short spread is a moderate structure. Monitor earnings dates and macro events. Consider widening WING_WIDTH (±$1.50–$2) or reducing QTY for live trading.

📋 Full Trade Log is not displayed on mobile devices to prevent page freezing. View this report on a desktop browser to see all 98 trades.

📋 Full Trade Log (98 trades)

DateDayExpiryXLE OpenATM LP/SP/SC/LCCredit OpenCr/WingStrangle%Credit Close P&LCum P&LExit
2026-01-05 Monday 2026-01-09 $46.70 46.5 43.5/44.5/48.5/49.5 $0.2100 0.210 0.557% $0.0900 +$480 +$480 SCHED
2026-01-06 Tuesday 2026-01-09 $46.66 46.5 43.5/44.5/48.5/49.5 $0.0900 0.090 0.257% $0.0600 +$120 +$600 SCHED
2026-01-12 Monday 2026-01-16 $46.44 46.5 43.5/44.5/48.5/49.5 $0.0200 0.020 0.258% $0.0400 $-80 +$520 ✗ SL80
2026-01-13 Tuesday 2026-01-16 $46.70 46.5 43.5/44.5/48.5/49.5 $0.0500 0.050 0.236% $0.0300 +$80 +$600 SCHED
2026-01-14 Wednesday 2026-01-16 $47.80 48.0 45.0/46.0/50.0/51.0 $0.1000 0.100 0.356% $0.0400 +$240 +$840 SCHED
2026-01-20 Tuesday 2026-01-23 $47.85 48.0 45.0/46.0/50.0/51.0 $0.1100 0.110 0.397% $0.0400 +$280 +$1,120 SCHED
2026-01-21 Wednesday 2026-01-23 $48.95 49.0 46.0/47.0/51.0/52.0 $0.0800 0.080 0.245% $0.0100 +$280 +$1,400 SCHED
2026-01-28 Wednesday 2026-01-30 $49.95 50.0 47.0/48.0/52.0/53.0 $0.0500 0.050 0.220% $0.0200 +$120 +$1,520 SCHED
2026-02-02 Monday 2026-02-06 $50.16 50.0 47.0/48.0/52.0/53.0 $0.2000 0.200 0.817% $0.0700 +$520 +$2,040 SCHED
2026-02-03 Tuesday 2026-02-06 $50.50 50.5 47.5/48.5/52.5/53.5 $0.0400 0.040 0.317% $0.0700 $-120 +$1,920 SCHED
2026-02-05 Thursday 2026-02-06 $51.96 52.0 49.0/50.0/54.0/55.0 $0.0300 0.030 0.423% $0.0500 $-80 +$1,840 SCHED
2026-02-09 Monday 2026-02-13 $53.15 53.0 50.0/51.0/55.0/56.0 $0.0900 0.090 0.602% $0.1100 $-80 +$1,760 SCHED
2026-02-23 Monday 2026-02-27 $55.75 56.0 53.0/54.0/58.0/59.0 $0.2800 0.280 0.915% $0.2600 +$80 +$1,840 SCHED
2026-02-24 Tuesday 2026-02-27 $54.55 54.5 51.5/52.5/56.5/57.5 $0.2400 0.240 0.678% $0.1500 +$360 +$2,200 SCHED
2026-02-25 Wednesday 2026-02-27 $55.05 55.0 52.0/53.0/57.0/58.0 $0.1000 0.100 0.454% $0.0800 +$80 +$2,280 SCHED
2026-03-02 Monday 2026-03-06 $56.40 56.5 53.5/54.5/58.5/59.5 $0.3100 0.310 1.419% $0.1400 +$680 +$2,960 SCHED
2026-03-03 Tuesday 2026-03-06 $56.98 57.0 54.0/55.0/59.0/60.0 $0.1800 0.180 1.035% $0.2000 $-80 +$2,880 SCHED
2026-03-04 Wednesday 2026-03-06 $56.06 56.0 53.0/54.0/58.0/59.0 $0.2300 0.230 0.624% $0.1100 +$480 +$3,360 SCHED
2026-03-05 Thursday 2026-03-06 $56.64 56.5 53.5/54.5/58.5/59.5 $0.0500 0.050 0.318% $0.0000 +$200 +$3,560 ✓ PT90
2026-03-09 Monday 2026-03-13 $56.65 56.5 53.5/54.5/58.5/59.5 $0.2800 0.280 1.200% $0.3100 $-120 +$3,440 SCHED
2026-03-10 Tuesday 2026-03-13 $55.62 55.5 52.5/53.5/57.5/58.5 $0.2000 0.200 0.665% $0.1000 +$400 +$3,840 SCHED
2026-03-11 Wednesday 2026-03-13 $55.99 56.0 53.0/54.0/58.0/59.0 $0.0900 0.090 0.482% $0.1600 $-280 +$3,560 SCHED
2026-03-12 Thursday 2026-03-13 $57.16 57.0 54.0/55.0/59.0/60.0 $0.1100 0.110 0.297% $0.0600 +$200 +$3,760 SCHED
2026-03-16 Monday 2026-03-20 $57.62 57.5 54.5/55.5/59.5/60.5 $0.1400 0.140 0.712% $0.1800 $-160 +$3,600 SCHED
2026-03-19 Thursday 2026-03-20 $58.81 59.0 56.0/57.0/61.0/62.0 $0.0200 0.020 0.153% $0.0500 $-120 +$3,480 ✗ SL80
2026-04-01 Wednesday 2026-04-10 $60.06 60.0 57.0/58.0/62.0/63.0 $0.0900 0.090 1.548% $0.3700 $-1,120 +$2,360 ✗ SL80
2026-04-02 Thursday 2026-04-10 $60.85 61.0 58.0/59.0/63.0/64.0 $0.3500 0.350 1.610% $0.4700 $-480 +$1,880 SCHED
2026-04-08 Wednesday 2026-04-10 $56.70 56.5 53.5/54.5/58.5/59.5 $0.1000 0.100 0.353% $0.3100 $-840 +$1,040 ✗ SL80
2026-04-09 Thursday 2026-04-10 $58.21 58.0 55.0/56.0/60.0/61.0 $0.0600 0.060 0.275% $0.0700 $-40 +$1,000 SCHED
2026-04-13 Monday 2026-04-17 $57.55 57.5 54.5/55.5/59.5/60.5 $0.2200 0.220 0.834% $0.1000 +$480 +$1,480 SCHED
2026-04-14 Tuesday 2026-04-17 $55.66 55.5 52.5/53.5/57.5/58.5 $0.0800 0.080 0.539% $0.1200 $-160 +$1,320 SCHED
2026-04-15 Wednesday 2026-04-17 $55.60 55.5 52.5/53.5/57.5/58.5 $0.1400 0.140 0.360% $0.0100 +$520 +$1,840 ✓ PT90
2026-04-20 Monday 2026-04-24 $55.49 55.5 52.5/53.5/57.5/58.5 $0.2100 0.210 0.703% $0.2000 +$40 +$1,880 SCHED
2026-04-21 Tuesday 2026-04-24 $55.30 55.5 52.5/53.5/57.5/58.5 $0.1000 0.100 0.398% $0.2000 $-400 +$1,480 ✗ SL80
2026-04-22 Wednesday 2026-04-24 $56.48 56.5 53.5/54.5/58.5/59.5 $0.1500 0.150 0.513% $0.0700 +$320 +$1,800 SCHED
2026-04-23 Thursday 2026-04-24 $56.80 57.0 54.0/55.0/59.0/60.0 $0.0500 0.050 0.176% $0.0100 +$160 +$1,960 SCHED
2026-04-27 Monday 2026-05-01 $57.53 57.5 54.5/55.5/59.5/60.5 $0.3100 0.310 0.886% $0.1900 +$480 +$2,440 SCHED
2026-04-28 Tuesday 2026-05-01 $57.62 57.5 54.5/55.5/59.5/60.5 $0.1500 0.150 0.538% $0.1100 +$160 +$2,600 SCHED
2026-04-29 Wednesday 2026-05-01 $58.28 58.5 55.5/56.5/60.5/61.5 $0.0900 0.090 0.343% $0.0700 +$80 +$2,680 SCHED
2026-04-30 Thursday 2026-05-01 $58.91 59.0 56.0/57.0/61.0/62.0 $0.1700 0.170 0.424% $0.0700 +$400 +$3,080 SCHED
2026-05-04 Monday 2026-05-08 $58.47 58.5 55.5/56.5/60.5/61.5 $0.2000 0.200 0.838% $0.2800 $-320 +$2,760 SCHED
2026-05-05 Tuesday 2026-05-08 $59.38 59.5 56.5/57.5/61.5/62.5 $0.1600 0.160 0.539% $0.1500 +$40 +$2,800 SCHED
2026-05-06 Wednesday 2026-05-08 $57.47 57.5 54.5/55.5/59.5/60.5 $0.0600 0.060 0.313% $0.1400 $-320 +$2,480 ✗ SL80
2026-05-11 Monday 2026-05-15 $56.46 56.5 53.5/54.5/58.5/59.5 $0.2400 0.240 0.708% $0.2100 +$120 +$2,600 SCHED
2026-05-12 Tuesday 2026-05-15 $57.33 57.5 54.5/55.5/59.5/60.5 $0.1500 0.150 0.506% $0.0900 +$240 +$2,840 SCHED
2026-05-13 Wednesday 2026-05-15 $57.18 57.0 54.0/55.0/59.0/60.0 $0.1800 0.180 0.455% $0.1100 +$280 +$3,120 SCHED
2026-05-14 Thursday 2026-05-15 $58.00 58.0 55.0/56.0/60.0/61.0 $0.0900 0.090 0.224% $0.0400 +$200 +$3,320 SCHED
2026-05-18 Monday 2026-05-22 $58.96 59.0 56.0/57.0/61.0/62.0 $0.2700 0.270 0.865% $0.3300 $-240 +$3,080 SCHED
2026-05-19 Tuesday 2026-05-22 $60.48 60.5 57.5/58.5/62.5/63.5 $0.2400 0.240 0.645% $0.1600 +$320 +$3,400 SCHED
2026-05-20 Wednesday 2026-05-22 $61.39 61.5 58.5/59.5/63.5/64.5 $0.1100 0.110 0.342% $0.3200 $-840 +$2,560 ✗ SL80
2026-05-21 Thursday 2026-05-22 $60.25 60.0 57.0/58.0/62.0/63.0 $0.1000 0.100 0.232% $0.0600 +$160 +$2,720 SCHED
2026-05-26 Tuesday 2026-05-29 $59.30 59.5 56.5/57.5/61.5/62.5 $0.1500 0.150 0.691% $0.3400 $-760 +$1,960 ✗ SL80
2026-05-27 Wednesday 2026-05-29 $56.79 57.0 54.0/55.0/59.0/60.0 $0.1200 0.120 0.423% $0.0400 +$320 +$2,280 SCHED
2026-06-01 Monday 2026-06-05 $57.00 57.0 54.0/55.0/59.0/60.0 $0.1000 0.100 0.614% $0.0800 +$80 +$2,360 SCHED
2026-06-02 Tuesday 2026-06-05 $57.66 57.5 54.5/55.5/59.5/60.5 $0.2000 0.200 0.520% $0.1100 +$360 +$2,720 SCHED
2026-06-03 Wednesday 2026-06-05 $58.12 58.0 55.0/56.0/60.0/61.0 $0.1000 0.100 0.310% $0.1500 $-200 +$2,520 SCHED
2026-06-08 Monday 2026-06-12 $58.38 58.5 55.5/56.5/60.5/61.5 $0.1900 0.190 0.634% $0.2200 $-120 +$2,400 SCHED
2026-06-09 Tuesday 2026-06-12 $57.85 58.0 55.0/56.0/60.0/61.0 $0.0600 0.060 0.363% $0.1800 $-480 +$1,920 ✗ SL80
2026-06-10 Wednesday 2026-06-12 $58.09 58.0 55.0/56.0/60.0/61.0 $0.1300 0.130 0.379% $0.1100 +$80 +$2,000 SCHED
2026-06-11 Thursday 2026-06-12 $58.81 59.0 56.0/57.0/61.0/62.0 $0.1900 0.190 0.408% $0.2300 $-160 +$1,840 SCHED
2026-06-15 Monday 2026-06-26 $55.36 55.5 52.5/53.5/57.5/58.5 $0.3600 0.360 1.481% $0.2600 +$400 +$2,240 SCHED
2026-06-16 Tuesday 2026-06-26 $55.29 55.5 52.5/53.5/57.5/58.5 $0.2400 0.240 0.995% $0.2500 $-40 +$2,200 SCHED
2026-06-17 Wednesday 2026-06-26 $54.77 55.0 52.0/53.0/57.0/58.0 $0.2700 0.270 0.986% $0.2700 +$0 +$2,200 SCHED
2026-06-18 Thursday 2026-06-26 $53.55 53.5 50.5/51.5/55.5/56.5 $0.2100 0.210 0.822% $0.2100 +$0 +$2,200 SCHED
2026-06-22 Monday 2026-06-26 $53.69 53.5 50.5/51.5/55.5/56.5 $0.2100 0.210 0.596% $0.1200 +$360 +$2,560 SCHED
2026-06-23 Tuesday 2026-06-26 $54.11 54.0 51.0/52.0/56.0/57.0 $0.1400 0.140 0.351% $0.0700 +$280 +$2,840 SCHED
2026-06-25 Thursday 2026-06-26 $53.40 53.5 50.5/51.5/55.5/56.5 $0.0300 0.030 0.131% $0.0200 +$40 +$2,880 SCHED
2026-06-29 Monday 2026-07-10 $54.12 54.0 51.0/52.0/56.0/57.0 $0.2300 0.230 0.979% $0.2200 +$40 +$2,920 SCHED
2026-07-07 Tuesday 2026-07-10 $54.05 54.0 51.0/52.0/56.0/57.0 $0.0900 0.090 0.259% $0.1300 $-160 +$2,760 SCHED
2026-07-08 Wednesday 2026-07-10 $55.33 55.5 52.5/53.5/57.5/58.5 $0.1100 0.110 0.380% $0.0700 +$160 +$2,920 SCHED
2026-07-09 Thursday 2026-07-10 $55.19 55.0 52.0/53.0/57.0/58.0 $0.0400 0.040 0.163% $0.0300 +$40 +$2,960 SCHED
2026-07-13 Monday 2026-07-17 $56.25 56.0 53.0/54.0/58.0/59.0 $0.1600 0.160 0.516% $0.2200 $-240 +$2,720 SCHED
2026-07-14 Tuesday 2026-07-17 $56.98 57.0 54.0/55.0/59.0/60.0 $0.1700 0.170 0.491% $0.0600 +$440 +$3,160 SCHED
2026-07-15 Wednesday 2026-07-17 $56.85 57.0 54.0/55.0/59.0/60.0 $0.0800 0.080 0.264% $0.0500 +$120 +$3,280 SCHED
2026-07-16 Thursday 2026-07-17 $56.77 57.0 54.0/55.0/59.0/60.0 $0.0700 0.070 0.176% $0.0000 +$280 +$3,560 ✓ PT90
2026-07-20 Monday 2026-07-24 $57.69 57.5 54.5/55.5/59.5/60.5 $0.1300 0.130 0.537% $0.1300 +$0 +$3,560 SCHED
2026-07-21 Tuesday 2026-07-24 $57.91 58.0 55.0/56.0/60.0/61.0 $0.2200 0.220 0.483% $0.1100 +$440 +$4,000 SCHED
2026-07-22 Wednesday 2026-07-24 $59.25 59.0 56.0/57.0/61.0/62.0 $0.1100 0.110 0.270% $0.0700 +$160 +$4,160 SCHED
2026-07-23 Thursday 2026-07-24 $60.20 60.0 57.0/58.0/62.0/63.0 $0.0300 0.030 0.116% $0.0000 +$120 +$4,280 ✓ PT90
2026-07-27 Monday 2026-07-31 $59.05 59.0 56.0/57.0/61.0/62.0 $0.2700 0.270 0.881% $0.2300 +$160 +$4,440 SCHED
2026-07-28 Tuesday 2026-07-31 $58.47 58.5 55.5/56.5/60.5/61.5 $0.1600 0.160 0.547% $0.1700 $-40 +$4,400 SCHED
2026-07-29 Wednesday 2026-07-31 $58.94 59.0 56.0/57.0/61.0/62.0 $0.2000 0.200 0.492% $0.1400 +$240 +$4,640 SCHED
2026-07-30 Thursday 2026-07-31 $58.45 58.5 55.5/56.5/60.5/61.5 $0.0200 0.020 0.137% $0.0000 +$80 +$4,720 ✓ PT90
2026-08-03 Monday 2026-08-07 $58.28 58.5 55.5/56.5/60.5/61.5 $0.1700 0.170 0.532% $0.2100 $-160 +$4,560 SCHED
2026-08-04 Tuesday 2026-08-07 $57.23 57.0 54.0/55.0/59.0/60.0 $0.4200 0.420 0.926% $0.2900 +$520 +$5,080 SCHED
2026-08-06 Thursday 2026-08-07 $58.09 58.0 55.0/56.0/60.0/61.0 $0.0100 0.010 0.103% $0.0000 +$40 +$5,120 ✓ PT90
2026-08-10 Monday 2026-08-14 $58.95 59.0 56.0/57.0/61.0/62.0 $0.1200 0.120 0.509% $0.2500 $-520 +$4,600 ✗ SL80
2026-08-11 Tuesday 2026-08-14 $60.39 60.5 57.5/58.5/62.5/63.5 $0.1100 0.110 0.431% $0.1300 $-80 +$4,520 SCHED
2026-08-12 Wednesday 2026-08-14 $60.41 60.5 57.5/58.5/62.5/63.5 $0.0800 0.080 0.182% $0.0500 +$120 +$4,640 SCHED
2026-08-17 Monday 2026-08-21 $62.11 62.0 59.0/60.0/64.0/65.0 $0.1000 0.100 0.370% $0.0200 +$320 +$4,960 SCHED
2026-08-19 Wednesday 2026-08-21 $63.92 64.0 61.0/62.0/66.0/67.0 $0.1500 0.150 0.360% $0.0600 +$360 +$5,320 SCHED
2026-08-26 Wednesday 2026-08-28 $61.97 62.0 59.0/60.0/64.0/65.0 $0.0900 0.090 0.290% $0.0100 +$320 +$5,640 SCHED
2026-08-31 Monday 2026-09-04 $64.24 64.0 61.0/62.0/66.0/67.0 $0.3900 0.390 0.934% $0.1400 +$1,000 +$6,640 SCHED
2026-09-03 Thursday 2026-09-04 $65.15 65.0 62.0/63.0/67.0/68.0 $0.0400 0.040 0.107% $0.0000 +$160 +$6,800 ✓ PT90
2026-09-08 Tuesday 2026-09-11 $64.94 65.0 62.0/63.0/67.0/68.0 $0.2400 0.240 0.524% $0.1700 +$280 +$7,080 SCHED
2026-09-09 Wednesday 2026-09-11 $65.83 66.0 63.0/64.0/68.0/69.0 $0.1400 0.140 0.319% $0.1000 +$160 +$7,240 SCHED
2026-09-14 Monday 2026-09-18 $65.99 66.0 63.0/64.0/68.0/69.0 $0.3500 0.350 0.879% $0.5000 $-600 +$6,640 SCHED
2026-09-15 Tuesday 2026-09-18 $65.38 65.5 62.5/63.5/67.5/68.5 $0.2500 0.250 0.688% $0.1800 +$280 +$6,920 SCHED