| Sell call @ 1.01× price (lower strike) | Collect premium — short leg |
| Buy call @ 1.03× price (higher strike) | Cap max loss — long leg (hedge) |
| Net credit received at open | Max profit = full credit × 100 × qty |
| Max loss = (width − credit) × 100 × qty | If MU rallies above short strike |
| Average winner | +$1,972 |
| Average loser | $-4,206 |
| Best trade | +$8,330 (2026-10-12) |
| Worst trade | $-11,150 (2026-09-14) |
| Total gross wins | +$65,080 |
| Total gross losses | $-42,060 |
Total P&L of +$23,020 over 43 weeks demonstrates consistent edge for the bear call setup on MU.
76.7% win rate over 43 trades — statistically meaningful sample size.
Annualised Sharpe of 0.62 indicates reasonable risk-adjusted returns.
Jan–Oct 2022 was a significant equity drawdown period. MU fell ~50% over this window, which can generate both wins (short bias aligned with trend) and large losses on counter-trend weeks.
All pricing uses real OPRA options bar data from Alpaca (feed=opra). Entry = Monday bar open; Exit = Thursday bar close. No commissions, slippage, pin risk, or early-exercise risk are modelled. Actual results will differ.
📋 Full Trade Log is not displayed on mobile devices to prevent page freezing. View this report on a desktop browser to see all 43 trades.
| Open Date | Close Date | Expiry | S Open | S Close | Short / Long K | Width | Net Credit | Close Debit | P&L | Cum P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-02-12 | 2024-02-15 | 2024-02-16 | $85.53 | $81.63 | 85 / 90 | 5 | $1.5000 | $0.0600 | +$1,440 | +$1,440 |
| 2024-03-11 | 2024-03-14 | 2024-03-15 | $95.90 | $91.43 | 95 / 100 | 5 | $1.7700 | $0.0700 | +$1,700 | +$3,140 |
| 2024-04-08 | 2024-04-11 | 2024-04-12 | $129.06 | $127.51 | 130 / 135 | 5 | $1.3300 | $0.2900 | +$1,040 | +$4,180 |
| 2024-05-06 | 2024-05-09 | 2024-05-10 | $119.78 | $117.81 | 120 / 125 | 5 | $2.0300 | $0.2400 | +$1,790 | +$5,970 |
| 2024-06-10 | 2024-06-13 | 2024-06-14 | $129.71 | $143.14 | 130 / 135 | 5 | $1.7200 | $4.6000 | $-2,880 | +$3,090 |
| 2024-06-17 | 2024-06-20 | 2024-06-21 | $145.58 | $144.19 | 145 / 150 | 5 | $1.8500 | $1.2100 | +$640 | +$3,730 |
| 2024-07-01 | 2024-07-05 | 2024-07-05 | $130.50 | $131.60 | 130 / 135 | 5 | $2.3600 | $1.5400 | +$820 | +$4,550 |
| 2024-07-15 | 2024-07-18 | 2024-07-19 | $133.91 | $117.45 | 135 / 140 | 5 | $1.4700 | $0.0000 | +$1,470 | +$6,020 |
| 2024-07-29 | 2024-08-01 | 2024-08-02 | $110.54 | $101.51 | 110 / 115 | 5 | $2.0200 | $0.0500 | +$1,970 | +$7,990 |
| 2024-08-26 | 2024-08-29 | 2024-08-30 | $100.67 | $95.57 | 100 / 105 | 5 | $1.8100 | $0.0700 | +$1,740 | +$9,730 |
| 2024-10-21 | 2024-10-24 | 2024-10-25 | $111.10 | $106.85 | 110 / 115 | 5 | $1.9500 | $0.1300 | +$1,820 | +$11,550 |
| 2024-11-11 | 2024-11-14 | 2024-11-15 | $110.94 | $99.18 | 110 / 115 | 5 | $1.9300 | $0.0100 | +$1,920 | +$13,470 |
| 2024-12-09 | 2024-12-12 | 2024-12-13 | $100.65 | $98.24 | 100 / 105 | 5 | $1.9100 | $0.4800 | +$1,430 | +$14,900 |
| 2024-12-16 | 2024-12-19 | 2024-12-20 | $105.61 | $87.09 | 105 / 110 | 5 | $2.2300 | $0.0000 | +$2,230 | +$17,130 |
| 2025-01-27 | 2025-01-30 | 2025-01-31 | $94.86 | $92.50 | 95 / 100 | 5 | $2.4600 | $0.4500 | +$2,010 | +$19,140 |
| 2025-02-24 | 2025-02-27 | 2025-02-28 | $100.22 | $91.82 | 100 / 105 | 5 | $1.8800 | $0.0000 | +$1,880 | +$21,020 |
| 2025-03-03 | 2025-03-06 | 2025-03-07 | $95.81 | $89.27 | 95 / 100 | 5 | $1.9800 | $0.1600 | +$1,820 | +$22,840 |
| 2025-03-24 | 2025-03-27 | 2025-03-28 | $96.10 | $91.16 | 95 / 100 | 5 | $2.1000 | $0.0900 | +$2,010 | +$24,850 |
| 2025-05-19 | 2025-05-22 | 2025-05-23 | $95.71 | $94.83 | 95 / 100 | 5 | $1.9000 | $0.9900 | +$910 | +$25,760 |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-07-03 | 2025-07-11 | $124.89 | $122.29 | 125 / 130 | 5 | $1.8900 | $1.0000 | +$890 | +$26,650 |
| 2025-07-07 | 2025-07-10 | 2025-07-11 | $121.18 | $123.11 | 120 / 125 | 5 | $1.9000 | $2.9400 | $-1,040 | +$25,610 |
| 2025-07-14 | 2025-07-17 | 2025-07-18 | $120.38 | $113.26 | 120 / 125 | 5 | $1.8100 | $0.0200 | +$1,790 | +$27,400 |
| 2025-08-04 | 2025-08-07 | 2025-08-08 | $106.02 | $111.87 | 105 / 110 | 5 | $2.1200 | $4.5300 | $-2,410 | +$24,990 |
| 2025-08-11 | 2025-08-14 | 2025-08-15 | $124.97 | $125.29 | 125 / 130 | 5 | $1.8800 | $1.3100 | +$570 | +$25,560 |
| 2025-09-22 | 2025-09-25 | 2025-09-26 | $164.38 | $156.83 | 165 / 170 | 5 | $2.0500 | $0.0900 | +$1,960 | +$27,520 |
| 2025-09-29 | 2025-10-02 | 2025-10-03 | $160.00 | $183.75 | 160 / 165 | 5 | $1.7700 | $4.8500 | $-3,080 | +$24,440 |
| 2025-10-20 | 2025-10-23 | 2025-10-24 | $209.66 | $206.71 | 210 / 215 | 5 | $2.1000 | $1.1000 | +$1,000 | +$25,440 |
| 2025-11-03 | 2025-11-06 | 2025-11-07 | $233.88 | $238.33 | 235 / 240 | 5 | $3.0500 | $2.8200 | +$230 | +$25,670 |
| 2025-11-17 | 2025-11-20 | 2025-11-21 | $246.92 | $201.37 | 250 / 255 | 5 | $1.0500 | $0.0100 | +$1,040 | +$26,710 |
| 2025-12-08 | 2025-12-11 | 2025-12-12 | $243.49 | $258.46 | 245 / 250 | 5 | $1.0000 | $4.5200 | $-3,520 | +$23,190 |
| 2025-12-15 | 2025-12-18 | 2025-12-19 | $247.11 | $248.55 | 250 / 255 | 5 | $2.3000 | $1.8300 | +$470 | +$23,660 |
| 2026-01-05 | 2026-01-08 | 2026-01-09 | $325.13 | $327.02 | 330 / 335 | 5 | $2.3000 | $1.4700 | +$830 | +$24,490 |
| 2026-01-12 | 2026-01-15 | 2026-01-16 | $340.55 | $336.63 | 345 / 350 | 5 | $2.1000 | $0.5700 | +$1,530 | +$26,020 |
| 2026-02-23 | 2026-02-26 | 2026-02-27 | $422.31 | $415.56 | 425 / 435 | 10 | $6.0500 | $1.6800 | +$4,370 | +$30,390 |
| 2026-03-02 | 2026-03-05 | 2026-03-06 | $401.47 | $397.05 | 405 / 415 | 10 | $3.9600 | $2.2300 | +$1,730 | +$32,120 |
| 2026-05-04 | 2026-05-07 | 2026-05-08 | $560.60 | $646.63 | 565 / 575 | 10 | $4.2800 | $-0.8800 | +$5,160 | +$37,280 |
| 2026-08-31 | 2026-09-03 | 2026-09-04 | $931.39 | $958.16 | 940 / 960 | 20 | $10.5700 | $12.5900 | $-2,020 | +$35,260 |
| 2026-09-14 | 2026-09-17 | 2026-09-18 | $906.03 | $977.50 | 915 / 935 | 20 | $7.1500 | $18.3000 | $-11,150 | +$24,110 |
| 2026-09-21 | 2026-09-24 | 2026-09-25 | $1044.99 | $1080.53 | 1055 / 1075 | 20 | $7.4000 | $13.4100 | $-6,010 | +$18,100 |
| 2026-09-28 | 2026-10-01 | 2026-10-02 | $1075.98 | $1097.39 | 1085 / 1110 | 25 | $9.3400 | $12.5600 | $-3,220 | +$14,880 |
| 2026-10-05 | 2026-10-08 | 2026-10-09 | $1069.68 | $1035.84 | 1080 / 1100 | 20 | $7.3100 | $0.7700 | +$6,540 | +$21,420 |
| 2026-10-12 | 2026-10-15 | 2026-10-16 | $1002.45 | $931.24 | 1010 / 1035 | 25 | $8.6000 | $0.2700 | +$8,330 | +$29,750 |
| 2026-10-26 | 2026-10-29 | 2026-10-30 | $889.88 | $934.27 | 900 / 915 | 15 | $5.9500 | $12.6800 | $-6,730 | +$23,020 |