AMZN Bear Put Spread Backtest | AI Velocity

Weekly Bear Put Spread AMZN

Total P&L
+$13,640
2024-01-01 → 2026-11-03
Win Rate
42.9%
6 wins / 8 losses
Total Trades
14
Weekly entries
Avg P&L / Trade
+$974
Per trade average
Avg P&L / Day
+$19
Across 713 trading days
Avg Annual Profit
+$4,821
Avg daily P&L × 252
Capital Required
$1,051
Avg max loss / trade
Avg Annual Return
458.8%
Annual profit / avg capital
Profit Factor
2.99
Gross wins / gross losses
Sharpe Ratio
2.81
Weekly × √52 annualised
Max Drawdown
$2,770
Peak-to-trough equity
Payoff Ratio
3.98x
Avg win / avg loss

📈 Equity Curve

⚙️ Strategy Configuration

Ticker
AMZN
Contracts
10
Structure
Bear Put
Long Strike
0.98×
Short Strike
0.95×
Entry Day
Monday
Entry Time
9:40 AM ET
Exit Day
Thursday
Exit Time
3:45 PM ET
Expiry
Next Friday
Strike Rounding
$5
Pricing Model
Black-Scholes

How It Works

Buy put @ 0.98× price (higher strike)Pay premium — long leg, bearish
Sell put @ 0.95× price (lower strike)Collect premium — caps max profit
Net debit paid at openMax loss = debit × 100 × qty
Profits when AMZN falls below long put strikeMax profit = (width − debit) × 100 × qty

📊 Win / Loss Analysis

Win Rate Breakdown

Winners (6)42.9%
42.9%
Losers (8)57.1%
57.1%

P&L Breakdown

Average winner+$3,418
Average loser$-859
Best trade+$6,860 (2025-11-17)
Worst trade$-1,650 (2025-01-13)
Total gross wins+$20,510
Total gross losses$-6,870

⚠️ Risk Assessment

Max Drawdown

$2,770

Worst Single Loss

$-1,650

Avg Max Loss / Trade

$1,051

Profit Factor

2.99

Sharpe (Annualised)

2.81

Payoff Ratio

3.98x

Strategy Risk Profile

MetricValueNotes
Risk per trade (max)$1,051 avgNet debit paid — defined risk
Max profit per trade$5,021 avgWidth minus debit
Max drawdown$2,770Peak-to-trough cumulative
Best single trade+$6,8602025-11-17 open
Worst single trade$-1,6502025-01-13 open

💡 Key Insights

✅

Profitable Strategy

Total P&L of +$13,640 over 14 trades — the bearish directional bias aligned with AMZN's 2022 downtrend.

⚠️

Win Rate Below 50%

Only 42.9% win rate. As a net-debit strategy, a payoff ratio of 3.98x is needed to be profitable — check if it clears that bar.

⚠️

Net Debit Risk Profile

Unlike credit spreads, the debit paid is the maximum loss per trade. Losing streaks consume capital faster. Defined risk, but requires directional accuracy to be profitable.

⚠️

2022 Bear Market Context

AMZN fell ~50% Jan–Oct 2022. The bearish put spread should have directional tailwind, but intraweek chop (open Monday, close Thursday) may have muted returns or caused whipsaws.

⚠️

Model Limitations

All pricing uses real OPRA options bar data from Alpaca (feed=opra). Entry = Monday bar open; Exit = Thursday bar close. No commissions, slippage, pin risk, or early-exercise risk are modelled. Actual results will differ.

📋 Full Trade Log is not displayed on mobile devices to prevent page freezing. View this report on a desktop browser to see all 14 trades.

📋 Full Trade Log (14 trades)

Open Date Close Date Expiry S Open S Close Long K / Short K Width Net Debit Close Value P&L Cum P&L
2024-03-11 2024-03-14 2024-03-15 $174.25 $178.84 170 / 165 5 $0.5800 $0.0200 $-560 $-560
2024-07-15 2024-07-18 2024-07-19 $194.50 $183.68 190 / 185 5 $0.6900 $3.7700 +$3,080 +$2,520
2024-09-30 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 $187.07 $181.90 185 / 180 5 $1.0900 $2.6500 +$1,560 +$4,080
2024-12-30 2025-01-02 2025-01-03 $219.99 $220.21 215 / 210 5 $0.6200 $0.2100 $-410 +$3,670
2025-01-13 2025-01-16 2025-01-17 $218.09 $220.65 215 / 205 10 $1.7500 $0.1000 $-1,650 +$2,020
2025-03-10 2025-03-13 2025-03-14 $195.61 $193.92 190 / 185 5 $0.9700 $0.4300 $-540 +$1,480
2025-03-31 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 $188.11 $178.41 185 / 180 5 $1.3000 $3.5800 +$2,280 +$3,760
2025-04-21 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 $169.50 $186.49 165 / 160 5 $0.9800 $0.0000 $-980 +$2,780
2025-08-11 2025-08-14 2025-08-15 $222.24 $230.89 220 / 210 10 $1.5300 $0.0600 $-1,470 +$1,310
2025-09-22 2025-09-25 2025-09-26 $230.56 $218.16 225 / 220 5 $0.7300 $4.3000 +$3,570 +$4,880
2025-11-17 2025-11-20 2025-11-21 $232.94 $217.19 230 / 220 10 $1.9800 $8.8400 +$6,860 +$11,740
2025-12-08 2025-12-11 2025-12-12 $229.42 $230.28 225 / 220 5 $0.9000 $0.1000 $-800 +$10,940
2026-03-09 2026-03-12 2026-03-13 $210.51 $209.56 205 / 200 5 $0.8600 $0.4000 $-460 +$10,480
2026-06-01 2026-06-04 2026-06-05 $266.29 $253.85 260 / 255 5 $0.7300 $3.8900 +$3,160 +$13,640