XLK Bull Call Spread Backtest | AI Velocity

Weekly Bull Call Spread XLK

Total P&L
+$29,160
2024-01-01 → 2026-11-03
Win Rate
37.6%
41 wins / 68 losses
Total Trades
109
Weekly entries
Avg P&L / Trade
+$268
Per trade average
Avg P&L / Day
+$41
Across 713 trading days
Avg Annual Profit
+$10,306
Avg daily P&L × 252
Capital Required
$890
Avg max loss / trade
Avg Annual Return
1,158.1%
Annual profit / avg capital
Profit Factor
1.65
Gross wins / gross losses
Sharpe Ratio
1.27
Weekly × √52 annualised
Max Drawdown
$8,180
Peak-to-trough equity
Payoff Ratio
2.74x
Avg win / avg loss
Contracts / Leg
10
20 total contracts · 2180 across all trades

📈 Equity Curve

⚙️ Strategy Configuration

Ticker
XLK
Contracts
10
Structure
Bull Call
Long Strike
1.02×
Short Strike
1.05×
Entry Day
Monday
Entry Time
9:40 AM ET
Exit Day
Thursday
Exit Time
3:45 PM ET
Expiry
Next Friday
Strike Rounding
$5
Pricing Model
Black-Scholes

How It Works

Buy call @ 1.02× price (lower strike)Pay premium — long leg, bullish
Sell call @ 1.05× price (higher strike)Collect premium — caps max profit
Net debit paid at openMax loss = debit × 100 × qty
Profits when XLK rises above long call strikeMax profit = (width − debit) × 100 × qty

📊 Win / Loss Analysis

Win Rate Breakdown

Winners (41)37.6%
37.6%
Losers (68)62.4%
62.4%

P&L Breakdown

Average winner+$1,803
Average loser$-659
Best trade+$4,490 (2025-11-24)
Worst trade$-2,440 (2024-07-29)
Total gross wins+$73,940
Total gross losses$-44,780

⚠️ Risk Assessment

Max Drawdown

$8,180

Worst Single Loss

$-2,440

Avg Max Loss / Trade

$890

Profit Factor

1.65

Sharpe (Annualised)

1.27

Payoff Ratio

2.74x

Strategy Risk Profile

MetricValueNotes
Risk per trade (max)$890 avgNet debit paid — defined risk
Max profit per trade$5,257 avgWidth minus debit
Max drawdown$8,180Peak-to-trough cumulative
Best single trade+$4,4902025-11-24 open
Worst single trade$-2,4402024-07-29 open

💡 Key Insights

✅

Profitable Strategy

Total P&L of +$29,160 over 109 trades — the bullish directional bias aligned with XLK's multi-year performance.

⚠️

Win Rate Below 50%

Only 37.6% win rate. A payoff ratio of 2.74x must compensate — check whether winners outsize losers sufficiently.

⚠️

Net Debit Risk Profile

The debit paid is the maximum loss per trade. Multiple losing weeks can erode capital quickly. Directional accuracy is required to generate a profit with this structure.

⚠️

2024–2026 Tech Sector Context

XLK tracks large-cap tech. Macro sensitivity (rates, AI earnings cycles) can cause sharp intraweek reversals that hurt a Mon–Thu hold window even in a broadly bullish year.

⚠️

Model Limitations

All pricing uses real OPRA options bar data from Alpaca (feed=opra). Entry = Monday bar open; Exit = Thursday bar close. No commissions, slippage, pin risk, or early-exercise risk are modelled. Actual results will differ.

📋 Full Trade Log is not displayed on mobile devices to prevent page freezing. View this report on a desktop browser to see all 109 trades.

📋 Full Trade Log (109 trades)

Open Date Close Date Expiry S Open S Close Long K / Short K Width Net Debit Close Value P&L Cum P&L
2024-01-29 2024-02-01 2024-02-02 $201.93 $200.13 205 / 210 5 $0.9800 $0.0900 $-890 $-890
2024-02-26 2024-02-29 2024-03-01 $206.18 $207.09 210 / 215 5 $0.3600 $0.0300 $-330 $-1,220
2024-03-04 2024-03-07 2024-03-08 $210.47 $210.49 215 / 220 5 $0.0100 $0.0800 +$70 $-1,150
2024-03-11 2024-03-14 2024-03-15 $206.20 $208.80 210 / 215 5 $1.3400 $0.4500 $-890 $-2,040
2024-03-25 2024-03-28 2024-04-05 $207.76 $208.22 210 / 220 10 $2.0000 $1.2100 $-790 $-2,830
2024-04-01 2024-04-04 2024-04-05 $208.84 $204.06 215 / 220 5 $0.1300 $-0.0600 $-190 $-3,020
2024-04-08 2024-04-11 2024-04-12 $206.69 $208.72 210 / 215 5 $0.7700 $0.4100 $-360 $-3,380
2024-04-15 2024-04-18 2024-04-19 $206.68 $196.59 210 / 215 5 $0.5200 $0.0000 $-520 $-3,900
2024-04-22 2024-04-25 2024-04-26 $194.22 $197.60 200 / 205 5 $0.2100 $0.9400 +$730 $-3,170
2024-05-06 2024-05-09 2024-05-10 $203.07 $204.77 205 / 215 10 $1.2800 $0.5900 $-690 $-3,860
2024-05-13 2024-05-16 2024-05-17 $207.16 $212.30 210 / 220 10 $0.5400 $2.6400 +$2,100 $-1,760
2024-06-03 2024-06-06 2024-06-07 $211.83 $215.07 215 / 220 5 $0.4700 $1.2200 +$750 $-1,010
2024-06-10 2024-06-13 2024-06-14 $214.97 $227.06 220 / 225 5 $0.4900 $4.6200 +$4,130 +$3,120
2024-06-17 2024-06-20 2024-06-21 $228.42 $228.78 235 / 240 5 $0.0900 $0.0300 $-60 +$3,060
2024-06-24 2024-06-27 2024-06-28 $225.74 $226.38 230 / 235 5 $1.2800 $1.1000 $-180 +$2,880
2024-07-08 2024-07-11 2024-07-12 $233.56 $231.74 240 / 245 5 $0.2300 $0.0200 $-210 +$2,670
2024-07-15 2024-07-18 2024-07-19 $234.93 $224.44 240 / 245 5 $0.4700 $0.0200 $-450 +$2,220
2024-07-22 2024-07-25 2024-07-26 $223.38 $213.41 230 / 235 5 $0.9900 $-0.0100 $-1,000 +$1,220
2024-07-29 2024-08-01 2024-08-02 $218.02 $210.61 220 / 230 10 $2.4300 $-0.0100 $-2,440 $-1,220
2024-08-05 2024-08-08 2024-08-09 $191.42 $204.87 195 / 200 5 $1.1000 $4.7400 +$3,640 +$2,420
2024-08-12 2024-08-15 2024-08-16 $207.07 $221.03 210 / 215 5 $1.4000 $4.8800 +$3,480 +$5,900
2024-08-19 2024-08-22 2024-08-23 $221.33 $220.51 225 / 230 5 $0.7300 $0.6100 $-120 +$5,780
2024-08-26 2024-08-29 2024-08-30 $223.54 $217.43 230 / 235 5 $0.9400 $0.0100 $-930 +$4,850
2024-09-09 2024-09-12 2024-09-13 $206.37 $219.31 210 / 215 5 $1.2500 $4.8500 +$3,600 +$8,450
2024-09-16 2024-09-19 2024-09-20 $218.82 $223.47 225 / 230 5 $0.4700 $0.5400 +$70 +$8,520
2024-09-23 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 $222.19 $227.16 225 / 235 10 $0.9500 $2.6600 +$1,710 +$10,230
2024-09-30 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 $224.04 $222.92 230 / 235 5 $0.3000 $0.0300 $-270 +$9,960
2024-10-07 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 $224.40 $230.40 230 / 235 5 $0.7300 $1.0200 +$290 +$10,250
2024-10-14 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 $233.90 $230.14 240 / 245 5 $0.2000 $0.0100 $-190 +$10,060
2024-10-21 2024-10-24 2024-10-25 $230.21 $229.16 235 / 240 5 $0.2800 $0.0800 $-200 +$9,860
2024-10-28 2024-10-31 2024-11-01 $231.27 $222.29 235 / 245 10 $0.8800 $0.0300 $-850 +$9,010
2024-11-04 2024-11-07 2024-11-08 $224.38 $237.45 230 / 235 5 $1.1200 $4.3900 +$3,270 +$12,280
2024-11-18 2024-11-21 2024-11-22 $228.73 $233.58 235 / 240 5 $0.7300 $0.4300 $-300 +$11,980
2024-11-25 2024-11-29 2024-11-29 $235.23 $233.75 240 / 245 5 $0.2300 $-0.1100 $-340 +$11,640
2024-12-02 2024-12-05 2024-12-06 $233.96 $239.93 240 / 245 5 $0.1700 $1.1000 +$930 +$12,570
2024-12-09 2024-12-12 2024-12-13 $240.09 $238.11 245 / 250 5 $0.3100 $0.0100 $-300 +$12,270
2024-12-16 2024-12-19 2024-12-20 $239.47 $232.42 245 / 250 5 $0.2500 $0.0000 $-250 +$12,020
2024-12-23 2024-12-26 2024-12-27 $236.10 $240.68 240 / 250 10 $0.6000 $1.1300 +$530 +$12,550
2024-12-30 2025-01-02 2025-01-03 $233.97 $232.05 240 / 245 5 $0.2800 $0.0100 $-270 +$12,280
2025-01-13 2025-01-16 2025-01-17 $225.25 $230.50 230 / 235 5 $1.1400 $1.3300 +$190 +$12,470
2025-01-27 2025-01-30 2025-01-31 $228.60 $232.03 235 / 240 5 $0.5900 $0.3300 $-260 +$12,210
2025-02-03 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 $225.85 $234.84 230 / 235 5 $0.9400 $3.9600 +$3,020 +$15,230
2025-02-10 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 $234.75 $239.17 240 / 245 5 $0.5700 $0.4500 $-120 +$15,110
2025-02-24 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 $235.56 $222.53 240 / 245 5 $0.9300 $0.0100 $-920 +$14,190
2025-03-03 2025-03-06 2025-03-07 $226.92 $215.35 230 / 240 10 $1.3200 $0.0200 $-1,300 +$12,890
2025-03-10 2025-03-13 2025-03-14 $214.13 $207.79 220 / 225 5 $1.2600 $-0.0100 $-1,270 +$11,620
2025-03-17 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 $213.68 $213.36 220 / 225 5 $0.7400 $0.0700 $-670 +$10,950
2025-03-24 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 $217.10 $211.44 220 / 230 10 $1.2500 $0.0300 $-1,220 +$9,730
2025-03-31 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 $202.82 $195.15 205 / 215 10 $2.2100 $0.1000 $-2,110 +$7,620
2025-04-07 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 $174.91 $194.49 180 / 185 5 $1.6800 $3.4400 +$1,760 +$9,380
2025-04-14 2025-04-17 2025-04-25 $204.50 $192.88 210 / 215 5 $2.4200 $0.0900 $-2,330 +$7,050
2025-04-21 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 $189.87 $205.42 195 / 200 5 $1.0100 $3.0800 +$2,070 +$9,120
2025-04-28 2025-05-01 2025-05-02 $208.13 $213.04 210 / 220 10 $2.1800 $5.0400 +$2,860 +$11,980
2025-05-05 2025-05-08 2025-05-09 $214.73 $217.79 220 / 225 5 $0.9900 $0.4500 $-540 +$11,440
2025-05-12 2025-05-15 2025-05-16 $226.77 $234.51 230 / 240 10 $1.0100 $4.0300 +$3,020 +$14,460
2025-06-02 2025-06-05 2025-06-06 $230.49 $236.10 235 / 240 5 $1.0100 $2.9000 +$1,890 +$16,350
2025-06-09 2025-06-12 2025-06-13 $239.19 $242.52 245 / 250 5 $0.4700 $0.2400 $-230 +$16,120
2025-06-16 2025-06-20 2025-06-20 $240.86 $240.59 245 / 255 10 $0.5700 $-0.0200 $-590 +$15,530
2025-06-23 2025-06-26 2025-06-27 $240.14 $251.00 245 / 250 5 $0.9000 $4.7000 +$3,800 +$19,330
2025-06-30 2025-07-03 2025-07-11 $252.97 $256.98 260 / 265 5 $0.5100 $1.1800 +$670 +$20,000
2025-07-14 2025-07-17 2025-07-18 $255.29 $261.02 260 / 270 10 $0.3800 $1.7600 +$1,380 +$21,380
2025-07-28 2025-07-31 2025-08-01 $262.92 $262.61 270 / 275 5 $0.2200 $0.0800 $-140 +$21,240
2025-08-04 2025-08-07 2025-08-08 $259.62 $263.28 265 / 275 10 $0.7900 $0.2600 $-530 +$20,710
2025-08-25 2025-08-28 2025-08-29 $262.09 $266.47 265 / 275 10 $1.4500 $2.2000 +$750 +$21,460
2025-09-15 2025-09-18 2025-09-19 $271.25 $276.11 275 / 285 10 $0.8100 $2.0900 +$1,280 +$22,740
2025-09-29 2025-10-02 2025-10-03 $280.50 $286.30 285 / 295 10 $0.8600 $2.1400 +$1,280 +$24,020
2025-10-13 2025-10-16 2025-10-17 $284.81 $284.60 290 / 300 10 $1.0600 $0.3500 $-710 +$23,310
2025-10-20 2025-10-23 2025-10-24 $286.53 $289.17 290 / 300 10 $1.7500 $1.0300 $-720 +$22,590
2025-10-27 2025-10-30 2025-10-31 $297.54 $300.50 305 / 310 5 $0.5300 $0.2600 $-270 +$22,320
2025-11-10 2025-11-13 2025-11-14 $293.35 $286.61 300 / 310 10 $0.5500 $0.1000 $-450 +$21,870
2025-11-17 2025-11-20 2025-11-21 $285.45 $272.12 290 / 300 10 $1.7700 $0.0400 $-1,730 +$20,140
2025-11-24 2025-11-28 2025-11-28 $275.08 $286.11 280 / 290 10 $1.4000 $5.8900 +$4,490 +$24,630
2025-12-01 2025-12-04 2025-12-05 $283.42 $291.01 290 / 300 10 $0.9400 $1.8000 +$860 +$25,490
2025-12-08 2025-12-11 2025-12-12 $147.41 $148.01 150 / 155 5 $0.7700 $0.1000 $-670 +$24,820
2025-12-15 2025-12-18 2025-12-19 $144.57 $141.52 145 / 150 5 $1.2900 $0.0400 $-1,250 +$23,570
2026-01-26 2026-01-29 2026-01-30 $145.28 $146.84 150 / 155 5 $0.2400 $-0.0100 $-250 +$23,320
2026-02-02 2026-02-05 2026-02-06 $143.50 $135.59 145 / 150 5 $1.0500 $0.0200 $-1,030 +$22,290
2026-03-02 2026-03-05 2026-03-06 $136.81 $140.16 140 / 145 5 $0.7900 $1.1800 +$390 +$22,680
2026-03-09 2026-03-12 2026-03-13 $135.97 $137.79 140 / 145 5 $0.9200 $0.5400 $-380 +$22,300
2026-03-16 2026-03-19 2026-03-20 $138.69 $138.44 140 / 145 5 $1.4000 $0.1300 $-1,270 +$21,030
2026-03-23 2026-03-26 2026-03-27 $137.47 $132.47 140 / 145 5 $0.7800 $0.0000 $-780 +$20,250
2026-03-30 2026-04-02 2026-04-10 $131.04 $135.97 135 / 140 5 $0.7600 $2.0500 +$1,290 +$21,540
2026-04-06 2026-04-09 2026-04-10 $136.48 $142.04 140 / 145 5 $0.5700 $2.0800 +$1,510 +$23,050
2026-04-13 2026-04-16 2026-04-17 $142.30 $152.03 145 / 150 5 $0.5500 $4.5600 +$4,010 +$27,060
2026-04-20 2026-04-23 2026-04-24 $154.37 $155.83 155 / 160 5 $1.4400 $1.5700 +$130 +$27,190
2026-04-27 2026-04-30 2026-05-01 $160.10 $159.41 165 / 170 5 $0.2000 $0.0100 $-190 +$27,000
2026-05-04 2026-05-07 2026-05-08 $162.75 $169.68 165 / 170 5 $0.7000 $3.7800 +$3,080 +$30,080
2026-05-11 2026-05-14 2026-05-15 $176.08 $179.49 180 / 185 5 $0.9600 $0.8700 $-90 +$29,990
2026-05-18 2026-05-21 2026-05-22 $177.50 $178.53 180 / 185 5 $1.1400 $0.3400 $-800 +$29,190
2026-06-01 2026-06-04 2026-06-05 $192.32 $193.12 195 / 200 5 $1.0400 $0.7300 $-310 +$28,880
2026-06-08 2026-06-11 2026-06-12 $185.12 $183.19 190 / 195 5 $0.8400 $0.0500 $-790 +$28,090
2026-06-15 2026-06-18 2026-06-26 $190.46 $191.31 195 / 200 5 $1.6000 $1.3600 $-240 +$27,850
2026-06-29 2026-07-02 2026-07-10 $183.06 $180.50 185 / 190 5 $2.0400 $1.1800 $-860 +$26,990
2026-07-06 2026-07-09 2026-07-10 $182.22 $185.31 185 / 190 5 $1.5500 $1.4400 $-110 +$26,880
2026-07-13 2026-07-16 2026-07-17 $183.25 $177.49 185 / 190 5 $1.6700 $0.0400 $-1,630 +$25,250
2026-07-20 2026-07-23 2026-07-24 $177.07 $178.43 180 / 185 5 $1.3100 $0.8000 $-510 +$24,740
2026-07-27 2026-07-30 2026-07-31 $177.99 $175.63 180 / 185 5 $1.3700 $0.4300 $-940 +$23,800
2026-08-03 2026-08-06 2026-08-07 $174.30 $185.32 180 / 185 5 $0.6000 $4.3300 +$3,730 +$27,530
2026-08-10 2026-08-13 2026-08-14 $187.98 $190.77 190 / 195 5 $1.0700 $1.6900 +$620 +$28,150
2026-08-17 2026-08-20 2026-08-21 $190.78 $183.12 195 / 200 5 $0.5300 $0.0000 $-530 +$27,620
2026-08-24 2026-08-27 2026-08-28 $181.65 $188.64 185 / 190 5 $0.3900 $2.8100 +$2,420 +$30,040
2026-08-31 2026-09-03 2026-09-04 $185.78 $186.01 190 / 195 5 $0.4100 $0.0600 $-350 +$29,690
2026-09-14 2026-09-17 2026-09-18 $182.95 $188.06 185 / 190 5 $1.0800 $3.0500 +$1,970 +$31,660
2026-09-21 2026-09-24 2026-09-25 $191.77 $194.72 195 / 200 5 $0.6700 $0.8300 +$160 +$31,820
2026-09-28 2026-10-01 2026-10-02 $195.24 $197.88 200 / 205 5 $0.4800 $0.4900 +$10 +$31,830
2026-10-05 2026-10-08 2026-10-09 $200.28 $197.78 205 / 210 5 $0.4900 $0.0000 $-490 +$31,340
2026-10-12 2026-10-15 2026-10-16 $198.07 $189.14 200 / 210 10 $0.9500 $0.0100 $-940 +$30,400
2026-10-19 2026-10-22 2026-10-23 $186.60 $182.33 190 / 195 5 $0.9200 $0.1000 $-820 +$29,580
2026-10-26 2026-10-29 2026-10-30 $184.16 $188.75 190 / 195 5 $0.7100 $0.2900 $-420 +$29,160