AAPL Bull Put Spread Backtest | AI Velocity

Weekly Bull Put Spread AAPL

Total P&L
+$8,410
2024-01-01 → 2026-11-03
Win Rate
73.9%
99 wins / 35 losses
Total Trades
134
Weekly entries
Avg P&L / Trade
+$63
Per trade average
Avg P&L / Day
+$12
Across 713 trading days
Avg Annual Profit
+$2,972
Avg daily P&L × 252
Capital Required
$6,359
Avg max loss / trade
Avg Annual Return
46.7%
Annual profit / avg capital
Profit Factor
1.12
Gross wins / gross losses
Sharpe Ratio
0.29
Weekly × √52 annualised
Max Drawdown
$17,690
Peak-to-trough equity
Payoff Ratio
0.39x
Avg win / avg loss
Contracts / Leg
10
20 total contracts · 2680 across all trades

📈 Equity Curve

⚙️ Strategy Configuration

Ticker
AAPL
Contracts
10
Structure
Bull Put
Short Strike
0.98×
Long Strike
0.95×
Entry Day
Monday
Entry Time
9:40 AM ET
Exit Day
Thursday
Exit Time
3:45 PM ET
Expiry
Next Friday
Strike Rounding
$5
Pricing Model
Black-Scholes

How It Works

Sell put @ 0.98× price (higher strike)Collect premium — short leg, theta decay
Buy put @ 0.95× price (lower strike)Pay premium — long leg, defines max loss
Net credit received at openMax profit = credit × 100 × qty
Profits when AAPL stays above short put strikeMax loss = (width − credit) × 100 × qty

📊 Win / Loss Analysis

Win Rate Breakdown

Winners (99)73.9%
73.9%
Losers (35)26.1%
26.1%

P&L Breakdown

Average winner+$822
Average loser$-2,086
Best trade+$1,930 (2024-06-10)
Worst trade$-6,250 (2025-03-31)
Total gross wins+$81,420
Total gross losses$-73,010

⚠️ Risk Assessment

Max Drawdown

$17,690

Worst Single Loss

$-6,250

Avg Max Loss / Trade

$6,359

Profit Factor

1.12

Sharpe (Annualised)

0.29

Payoff Ratio

0.39x

Strategy Risk Profile

MetricValueNotes
Max profit per trade$1,029 avgNet credit received — defined max gain
Max loss per trade$6,359 avgWidth minus credit — defined max loss
Max drawdown$17,690Peak-to-trough cumulative
Best single trade+$1,9302024-06-10 open
Worst single trade$-6,2502025-03-31 open

💡 Key Insights

✅

Profitable Strategy

Total P&L of +$8,410 over 134 trades — the net-credit structure collected premium consistently while AAPL held above the short put strike.

✅

High Win Rate

73.9% win rate is consistent with a net-credit strategy — theta decay and the short Mon–Thu window work in favour of the seller.

⚠️

Asymmetric Risk Profile (Net Credit)

Credit spreads typically win frequently but lose large when breached. A payoff ratio below 1.0x is expected — profitability requires the win rate to compensate. Monitor the credit-to-width ratio closely.

⚠️

2024–2026 AAPL Context

AAPL faced macro headwinds (rate uncertainty, AI capex cycle) in 2025. Sharp intraweek pullbacks can push the stock below the 0.98× short put strike, triggering full-width losses despite the overall trend.

⚠️

Model Limitations

All pricing uses real OPRA options bar data from Alpaca (feed=opra). Entry = Monday bar open; Exit = Thursday bar close. No commissions, slippage, pin risk, or early-exercise risk are modelled. Actual results will differ.

📋 Full Trade Log is not displayed on mobile devices to prevent page freezing. View this report on a desktop browser to see all 134 trades.

📋 Full Trade Log (134 trades)

Open Date Close Date Expiry S Open S Close Short K / Long K Width Net Credit Close Cost P&L Cum P&L
2024-01-22 2024-01-25 2024-01-26 $192.39 $194.19 190 / 185 5 $0.3800 $0.0700 +$310 +$310
2024-01-29 2024-02-01 2024-02-02 $192.06 $186.88 190 / 180 10 $2.9700 $4.1700 $-1,200 $-890
2024-02-05 2024-02-08 2024-02-09 $188.24 $188.38 185 / 180 5 $0.7700 $0.0700 +$700 $-190
2024-02-12 2024-02-15 2024-02-16 $188.42 $183.86 185 / 180 5 $0.4200 $1.4800 $-1,060 $-1,250
2024-02-26 2024-02-29 2024-03-01 $182.33 $180.73 180 / 175 5 $0.7100 $0.4600 +$250 $-1,000
2024-03-04 2024-03-07 2024-03-08 $176.30 $168.97 175 / 165 10 $1.2200 $5.8100 $-4,590 $-5,590
2024-03-11 2024-03-14 2024-03-15 $172.97 $173.10 170 / 165 5 $0.3400 $0.1000 +$240 $-5,350
2024-03-18 2024-03-21 2024-03-22 $175.63 $171.38 170 / 165 5 $0.2500 $0.5200 $-270 $-5,620
2024-03-25 2024-03-28 2024-04-05 $170.47 $171.51 165 / 160 5 $0.5300 $0.1400 +$390 $-5,230
2024-04-01 2024-04-04 2024-04-05 $171.19 $168.86 170 / 165 5 $1.0100 $1.5600 $-550 $-5,780
2024-04-08 2024-04-11 2024-04-12 $169.18 $175.04 165 / 160 5 $0.3800 $0.0100 +$370 $-5,410
2024-04-15 2024-04-18 2024-04-19 $175.46 $167.03 170 / 165 5 $0.3200 $2.7200 $-2,400 $-7,810
2024-04-22 2024-04-25 2024-04-26 $165.53 $169.94 160 / 155 5 $0.3800 $0.0100 +$370 $-7,440
2024-04-29 2024-05-02 2024-05-03 $173.40 $173.13 170 / 165 5 $1.3200 $1.2300 +$90 $-7,350
2024-05-06 2024-05-09 2024-05-10 $182.38 $184.62 180 / 175 5 $0.7800 $0.0200 +$760 $-6,590
2024-05-13 2024-05-16 2024-05-17 $185.47 $189.93 180 / 175 5 $0.1500 $0.0100 +$140 $-6,450
2024-05-20 2024-05-23 2024-05-24 $189.29 $186.91 185 / 180 5 $0.1500 $0.2000 $-50 $-6,500
2024-06-03 2024-06-06 2024-06-07 $192.99 $194.44 190 / 185 5 $0.5700 $0.0600 +$510 $-5,990
2024-06-10 2024-06-13 2024-06-14 $196.91 $214.22 195 / 185 10 $1.9300 $0.0000 +$1,930 $-4,060
2024-06-17 2024-06-20 2024-06-21 $213.28 $209.55 210 / 205 5 $0.8600 $1.2700 $-410 $-4,470
2024-06-24 2024-06-27 2024-06-28 $207.70 $214.11 205 / 195 10 $1.0300 $0.0200 +$1,010 $-3,460
2024-07-01 2024-07-05 2024-07-05 $212.16 $226.35 210 / 200 10 $0.9900 $0.0000 +$990 $-2,470
2024-07-08 2024-07-11 2024-07-12 $227.12 $227.66 225 / 215 10 $1.3800 $0.3700 +$1,010 $-1,460
2024-07-15 2024-07-18 2024-07-19 $236.63 $224.21 230 / 225 5 $0.4600 $4.3300 $-3,870 $-5,330
2024-07-22 2024-07-25 2024-07-26 $227.34 $217.42 225 / 215 10 $1.7300 $6.5800 $-4,850 $-10,180
2024-07-29 2024-08-01 2024-08-02 $217.38 $218.51 215 / 205 10 $2.7300 $2.5300 +$200 $-9,980
2024-08-05 2024-08-08 2024-08-09 $199.16 $213.35 195 / 190 5 $1.3800 $0.0200 +$1,360 $-8,620
2024-08-12 2024-08-15 2024-08-16 $216.07 $224.69 210 / 205 5 $0.5400 $0.0100 +$530 $-8,090
2024-08-19 2024-08-22 2024-08-23 $225.57 $224.70 220 / 215 5 $0.4200 $0.1500 +$270 $-7,820
2024-08-26 2024-08-29 2024-08-30 $226.75 $229.83 220 / 215 5 $0.3500 $0.0100 +$340 $-7,480
2024-09-09 2024-09-12 2024-09-13 $221.03 $222.85 215 / 210 5 $0.9200 $0.0500 +$870 $-6,610
2024-09-16 2024-09-19 2024-09-20 $216.60 $228.91 210 / 205 5 $0.4800 $0.0000 +$480 $-6,130
2024-09-23 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 $227.18 $227.66 225 / 215 10 $1.4900 $0.2800 +$1,210 $-4,920
2024-09-30 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 $230.04 $225.60 225 / 220 5 $0.5800 $0.8800 $-300 $-5,220
2024-10-07 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 $224.47 $229.03 220 / 215 5 $0.6200 $0.0000 +$620 $-4,600
2024-10-14 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 $228.72 $232.17 225 / 215 10 $0.8300 $0.0300 +$800 $-3,800
2024-10-21 2024-10-24 2024-10-25 $234.78 $230.60 230 / 225 5 $0.5000 $0.7300 $-230 $-4,030
2024-10-28 2024-10-31 2024-11-01 $233.32 $225.73 230 / 220 10 $2.3500 $4.4400 $-2,090 $-6,120
2024-11-04 2024-11-07 2024-11-08 $221.08 $227.41 215 / 210 5 $0.8000 $0.0200 +$780 $-5,340
2024-11-11 2024-11-14 2024-11-15 $224.91 $228.30 220 / 215 5 $0.4200 $0.0200 +$400 $-4,940
2024-11-18 2024-11-21 2024-11-22 $225.30 $228.48 220 / 215 5 $0.5000 $0.0200 +$480 $-4,460
2024-11-25 2024-11-29 2024-11-29 $231.49 $237.39 225 / 220 5 $0.1700 $0.0000 +$170 $-4,290
2024-12-02 2024-12-05 2024-12-06 $237.33 $243.07 235 / 225 10 $0.9700 $0.0200 +$950 $-3,340
2024-12-09 2024-12-12 2024-12-13 $241.87 $248.02 235 / 230 5 $0.1800 $0.0000 +$180 $-3,160
2024-12-16 2024-12-19 2024-12-20 $247.96 $249.73 245 / 235 10 $0.8600 $0.2500 +$610 $-2,550
2024-12-23 2024-12-26 2024-12-27 $254.84 $259.15 250 / 240 10 $0.4900 $0.0300 +$460 $-2,090
2024-12-30 2025-01-02 2025-01-03 $252.09 $243.82 245 / 240 5 $0.2800 $1.6000 $-1,320 $-3,410
2025-01-06 2025-01-10 2025-01-10 $244.31 $236.76 240 / 230 10 $0.8000 $3.1300 $-2,330 $-5,740
2025-01-13 2025-01-16 2025-01-17 $233.52 $228.24 230 / 220 10 $1.4300 $2.5300 $-1,100 $-6,840
2025-01-27 2025-01-30 2025-01-31 $224.02 $237.53 220 / 215 5 $1.6500 $0.2400 +$1,410 $-5,430
2025-02-03 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 $229.98 $233.18 225 / 220 5 $0.8200 $0.0400 +$780 $-4,650
2025-02-10 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 $229.58 $241.49 225 / 220 5 $0.6500 $0.0200 +$630 $-4,020
2025-02-24 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 $244.93 $237.49 240 / 235 5 $0.7100 $2.4600 $-1,750 $-5,770
2025-03-03 2025-03-06 2025-03-07 $241.80 $235.35 235 / 230 5 $0.6400 $1.4300 $-790 $-6,560
2025-03-10 2025-03-13 2025-03-14 $235.58 $209.69 230 / 225 5 $0.9500 $4.7100 $-3,760 $-10,320
2025-03-17 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 $213.31 $214.13 210 / 205 5 $1.1700 $0.2900 +$880 $-9,440
2025-03-24 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 $221.00 $223.74 215 / 210 5 $0.5900 $0.0100 +$580 $-8,860
2025-03-31 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 $217.16 $203.01 215 / 205 10 $2.0500 $8.3000 $-6,250 $-15,110
2025-04-07 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 $177.31 $190.63 175 / 170 5 $2.0000 $0.3200 +$1,680 $-13,430
2025-04-14 2025-04-17 2025-04-25 $211.44 $196.89 205 / 200 5 $1.2800 $3.6100 $-2,330 $-15,760
2025-04-21 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 $193.11 $208.20 190 / 185 5 $1.2400 $0.0200 +$1,220 $-14,540
2025-04-28 2025-05-01 2025-05-02 $210.00 $213.03 205 / 200 5 $1.4400 $0.9000 +$540 $-14,000
2025-05-05 2025-05-08 2025-05-09 $203.09 $197.45 200 / 195 5 $1.1300 $2.5500 $-1,420 $-15,420
2025-05-12 2025-05-15 2025-05-16 $210.99 $211.33 205 / 200 5 $0.2400 $0.0900 +$150 $-15,270
2025-05-19 2025-05-22 2025-05-23 $207.99 $201.37 205 / 200 5 $1.0200 $3.1300 $-2,110 $-17,380
2025-06-02 2025-06-05 2025-06-06 $200.21 $200.68 195 / 190 5 $0.7500 $0.1200 +$630 $-16,750
2025-06-09 2025-06-12 2025-06-13 $204.41 $199.09 200 / 195 5 $0.9700 $1.4200 $-450 $-17,200
2025-06-16 2025-06-20 2025-06-20 $197.31 $201.03 195 / 185 10 $1.3600 $0.0000 +$1,360 $-15,840
2025-06-23 2025-06-26 2025-06-27 $201.62 $201.05 200 / 190 10 $1.6500 $0.6000 +$1,050 $-14,790
2025-06-30 2025-07-03 2025-07-11 $202.02 $213.50 200 / 190 10 $1.9700 $0.1200 +$1,850 $-12,940
2025-07-07 2025-07-10 2025-07-11 $212.81 $212.36 210 / 200 10 $1.1800 $0.2700 +$910 $-12,030
2025-07-14 2025-07-17 2025-07-18 $209.94 $210.13 205 / 200 5 $0.7200 $0.0500 +$670 $-11,360
2025-07-21 2025-07-24 2025-07-25 $212.12 $213.76 210 / 200 10 $1.4000 $0.1600 +$1,240 $-10,120
2025-07-28 2025-07-31 2025-08-01 $214.04 $207.85 210 / 205 5 $1.2900 $2.4000 $-1,110 $-11,230
2025-08-04 2025-08-07 2025-08-08 $204.50 $220.17 200 / 195 5 $0.8800 $0.0000 +$880 $-10,350
2025-08-11 2025-08-14 2025-08-15 $227.92 $232.78 225 / 215 10 $1.6900 $0.0600 +$1,630 $-8,720
2025-08-18 2025-08-21 2025-08-22 $231.72 $224.90 225 / 220 5 $0.5100 $1.3100 $-800 $-9,520
2025-08-25 2025-08-28 2025-08-29 $226.48 $232.59 220 / 215 5 $0.6500 $0.0300 +$620 $-8,900
2025-09-08 2025-09-11 2025-09-12 $239.36 $229.99 235 / 225 10 $1.0200 $4.5400 $-3,520 $-12,420
2025-09-15 2025-09-18 2025-09-19 $236.74 $237.87 230 / 225 5 $0.4700 $0.0400 +$430 $-11,990
2025-09-22 2025-09-25 2025-09-26 $248.34 $256.91 245 / 235 10 $1.3100 $0.0300 +$1,280 $-10,710
2025-09-29 2025-10-02 2025-10-03 $254.54 $257.43 250 / 240 10 $1.0000 $0.0500 +$950 $-9,760
2025-10-06 2025-10-09 2025-10-10 $257.99 $254.03 255 / 245 10 $1.3700 $1.7600 $-390 $-10,150
2025-10-13 2025-10-16 2025-10-17 $249.31 $247.45 245 / 235 10 $1.2700 $0.7100 +$560 $-9,590
2025-10-20 2025-10-23 2025-10-24 $255.96 $259.59 250 / 245 5 $0.6200 $0.0100 +$610 $-8,980
2025-10-27 2025-10-30 2025-10-31 $264.87 $271.32 260 / 250 10 $2.0300 $0.7200 +$1,310 $-7,670
2025-11-03 2025-11-06 2025-11-07 $270.47 $269.85 265 / 255 10 $1.0500 $0.3100 +$740 $-6,930
2025-11-10 2025-11-13 2025-11-14 $269.13 $273.05 265 / 255 10 $1.1500 $0.1000 +$1,050 $-5,880
2025-11-17 2025-11-20 2025-11-21 $268.81 $266.39 265 / 255 10 $1.5500 $1.2900 +$260 $-5,620
2025-11-24 2025-11-28 2025-11-28 $271.25 $278.77 265 / 260 5 $0.5700 $0.0000 +$570 $-5,050
2025-12-01 2025-12-04 2025-12-05 $278.05 $280.68 270 / 265 5 $0.4100 $0.0200 +$390 $-4,660
2025-12-08 2025-12-11 2025-12-12 $278.11 $278.08 275 / 265 10 $1.1800 $0.2400 +$940 $-3,720
2025-12-15 2025-12-18 2025-12-19 $280.15 $272.24 275 / 265 10 $0.7900 $2.8500 $-2,060 $-5,780
2025-12-22 2025-12-26 2025-12-26 $272.86 $273.39 265 / 260 5 $0.2000 $0.0000 +$200 $-5,580
2025-12-29 2026-01-02 2026-01-02 $272.96 $271.01 270 / 260 10 $0.9600 $-0.0100 +$970 $-4,610
2026-01-05 2026-01-08 2026-01-09 $270.71 $259.08 265 / 255 10 $0.6900 $5.6000 $-4,910 $-9,520
2026-01-12 2026-01-15 2026-01-16 $259.31 $258.09 255 / 245 10 $1.2100 $0.3100 +$900 $-8,620
2026-01-26 2026-01-29 2026-01-30 $251.31 $258.18 245 / 240 5 $1.2700 $0.6500 +$620 $-8,000
2026-02-02 2026-02-05 2026-02-06 $259.91 $275.93 255 / 245 10 $1.3300 $0.0200 +$1,310 $-6,690
2026-02-09 2026-02-12 2026-02-13 $277.88 $261.65 270 / 265 5 $0.6100 $4.1500 $-3,540 $-10,230
2026-02-23 2026-02-26 2026-02-27 $263.55 $273.00 260 / 250 10 $1.6900 $0.0400 +$1,650 $-8,580
2026-03-02 2026-03-05 2026-03-06 $262.47 $260.25 255 / 250 5 $0.8200 $0.3000 +$520 $-8,060
2026-03-09 2026-03-12 2026-03-13 $255.69 $255.71 250 / 245 5 $0.9900 $0.2400 +$750 $-7,310
2026-03-16 2026-03-19 2026-03-20 $251.79 $248.90 245 / 240 5 $0.7300 $0.3300 +$400 $-6,910
2026-03-23 2026-03-26 2026-03-27 $253.99 $252.87 250 / 240 10 $1.2000 $0.6800 +$520 $-6,390
2026-03-30 2026-04-02 2026-04-10 $250.04 $255.89 245 / 240 5 $1.2300 $0.3400 +$890 $-5,500
2026-04-06 2026-04-09 2026-04-10 $256.56 $260.44 250 / 245 5 $0.6800 $0.0100 +$670 $-4,830
2026-04-13 2026-04-16 2026-04-17 $259.73 $263.32 255 / 245 10 $1.1600 $0.0400 +$1,120 $-3,710
2026-04-20 2026-04-23 2026-04-24 $270.33 $273.49 265 / 255 10 $1.1100 $0.0500 +$1,060 $-2,650
2026-04-27 2026-04-30 2026-05-01 $266.24 $271.14 260 / 255 5 $1.0000 $0.7500 +$250 $-2,400
2026-05-04 2026-05-07 2026-05-08 $279.65 $287.40 275 / 265 10 $1.3600 $0.0300 +$1,330 $-1,070
2026-05-11 2026-05-14 2026-05-15 $292.02 $298.25 285 / 275 10 $0.8000 $0.0400 +$760 $-310
2026-05-18 2026-05-21 2026-05-22 $300.19 $305.07 295 / 285 10 $1.2800 $0.0200 +$1,260 +$950
2026-06-01 2026-06-04 2026-06-05 $309.60 $311.21 305 / 295 10 $1.2500 $0.1200 +$1,130 +$2,080
2026-06-08 2026-06-11 2026-06-12 $308.62 $295.48 300 / 295 5 $0.7600 $3.2600 $-2,500 $-420
2026-06-15 2026-06-18 2026-06-26 $293.99 $297.86 290 / 280 10 $2.1400 $0.9600 +$1,180 +$760
2026-06-22 2026-06-25 2026-06-26 $297.41 $275.21 290 / 285 5 $0.7200 $4.2800 $-3,560 $-2,800
2026-06-29 2026-07-02 2026-07-10 $286.69 $308.24 280 / 270 10 $1.5400 $0.0900 +$1,450 $-1,350
2026-07-06 2026-07-09 2026-07-10 $307.54 $316.16 300 / 290 10 $1.2500 $0.0200 +$1,230 $-120
2026-07-13 2026-07-16 2026-07-17 $317.00 $333.23 310 / 300 10 $1.0600 $0.0300 +$1,030 +$910
2026-07-20 2026-07-23 2026-07-24 $332.24 $321.57 325 / 315 10 $1.5800 $3.5200 $-1,940 $-1,030
2026-07-27 2026-07-30 2026-07-31 $335.73 $333.07 330 / 320 10 $2.9100 $2.7500 +$160 $-870
2026-08-03 2026-08-06 2026-08-07 $309.76 $312.45 305 / 295 10 $1.8200 $0.1300 +$1,690 +$820
2026-08-10 2026-08-13 2026-08-14 $306.74 $305.31 300 / 290 10 $0.8800 $0.1800 +$700 +$1,520
2026-08-17 2026-08-20 2026-08-21 $306.21 $311.29 300 / 290 10 $0.8200 $0.1200 +$700 +$2,220
2026-08-24 2026-08-27 2026-08-28 $311.47 $314.54 305 / 295 10 $1.2700 $0.0700 +$1,200 +$3,420
2026-08-31 2026-09-03 2026-09-04 $319.68 $328.22 315 / 305 10 $1.5200 $0.0100 +$1,510 +$4,930
2026-09-14 2026-09-17 2026-09-18 $334.70 $337.09 330 / 320 10 $1.8200 $0.2100 +$1,610 +$6,540
2026-09-21 2026-09-24 2026-09-25 $335.49 $335.88 330 / 320 10 $1.3300 $0.2000 +$1,130 +$7,670
2026-09-28 2026-10-01 2026-10-02 $340.55 $330.44 335 / 325 10 $1.2500 $4.4500 $-3,200 +$4,470
2026-10-05 2026-10-08 2026-10-09 $332.82 $340.43 325 / 315 10 $0.8400 $0.0200 +$820 +$5,290
2026-10-12 2026-10-15 2026-10-16 $338.13 $341.91 330 / 320 10 $0.9000 $0.1300 +$770 +$6,060
2026-10-19 2026-10-22 2026-10-23 $340.98 $348.34 335 / 325 10 $1.5300 $0.0500 +$1,480 +$7,540
2026-10-26 2026-10-29 2026-10-30 $343.88 $348.98 335 / 325 10 $0.8900 $0.0200 +$870 +$8,410