Weekly Options Backtest — Performance Summary & Analysis
| Leg | Strike | Action | Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| Long Put | ATM − $10 | Buy | Lower wing — defines max loss on downside |
| Short Put | ATM | Sell | ATM body — highest premium collection |
| Short Call | ATM | Sell | ATM body — highest premium collection |
| Long Call | ATM + $10 | Buy | Upper wing — defines max loss on upside |
| Net credit at open | Max profit = credit × 100 × 40 (QQQ pins exactly at ATM) |
| QQQ moves more than $10 from ATM | Max loss = ($10 − credit) × 100 × 40 |
| Avg net credit collected | $6.4587 / share (64.6% of wing width) |
| Average winner | +$6,981 |
| Average loser | $-7,329 |
| Best trade | +$19,840 (2024-11-25) |
| Worst trade | $-13,980 (2026-08-17) |
| Total gross wins | +$286,240 |
| Total gross losses | $-212,540 |
| Metric | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Avg max profit / trade | $25,835 | Net credit × 100 × 40 |
| Avg max loss / trade | $14,165 | ($10 wing − credit) × 100 × 40 |
| Max drawdown | $35,920 | Peak-to-trough cumulative equity |
| Best single trade | +$19,840 | 2024-11-25 open |
| Worst single trade | $-13,980 | 2026-08-17 open |
Total P&L of +$73,700 over 70 trades across 2024–2026. The iron butterfly's short ATM straddle collects maximum premium when QQQ remains anchored near the opening price through Thursday.
Iron butterflies target 40–60% win rates. A 58.6% result over 70 trades reflects the strategy's sensitivity to weekly directional moves in the Nasdaq-100.
Unlike an iron condor, the iron butterfly sells the ATM straddle, collecting much higher premium but requiring QQQ to pin near ATM to profit. Any Monday-to-Thursday move beyond ~$6.46/share erodes the position. The $10 wing creates a defined but limited buffer.
The Nasdaq-100 experienced significant volatility over this period, including AI-driven rallies, rate uncertainty, and macro events. QQQ tends to move more than SPY on a weekly basis, making ATM butterflies particularly vulnerable to large weekly swings.
All pricing uses real OPRA daily bar data from Alpaca. No commissions, slippage, or pin risk modelled. Stop-loss (50% of max profit) is checked at each Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday daily close and capped at the threshold value — intraday triggers in the live script may exit at a better price than shown here.
📋 Full Trade Log is not displayed on mobile devices to prevent page freezing. View this report on a desktop browser to see all 70 trades.
| Open Date | Expiry | QQQ Open | QQQ Close | ATM | LP / SP / SC / LC | Credit Open | Credit Close | P&L | Cum P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-01-22 | 2024-01-26 | $423.52 | $426.30 | 424 | 414/424/424/434 | $5.0300 | $3.4200 | +$6,440 | +$6,440 |
| 2024-01-29 | 2024-02-02 | $424.23 | $422.07 | 424 | 414/424/424/434 | $6.3500 | $4.0300 | +$9,280 | +$15,720 |
| 2024-02-05 | 2024-02-09 | $429.02 | $432.79 | 429 | 419/429/429/439 | $5.6900 | $4.2900 | +$5,600 | +$21,320 |
| 2024-02-12 | 2024-02-16 | $436.70 | $434.48 | 437 | 427/437/437/447 | $5.6500 | $3.5600 | +$8,360 | +$29,680 |
| 2024-02-26 | 2024-03-01 | $437.64 | $439.11 | 438 | 428/438/438/448 | $5.6100 | $3.1300 | +$9,920 | +$39,600 |
| 2024-03-04 | 2024-03-08 | $445.55 | $445.53 | 446 | 436/446/446/456 | $5.7600 | $4.3000 | +$5,840 | +$45,440 |
| 2024-03-11 | 2024-03-15 | $437.23 | $439.13 | 437 | 427/437/437/447 | $6.6600 | $4.0300 | +$10,520 | +$55,960 |
| 2024-03-18 | 2024-03-22 | $438.86 | $445.79 | 439 | 429/439/439/449 | $6.6700 | $6.7600 | $-360 | +$55,600 |
| 2024-03-25 | 2024-04-05 | $443.36 | $444.09 | 443 | 433/443/443/453 | $6.7600 | $5.6300 | +$4,520 | +$60,120 |
| 2024-04-01 | 2024-04-05 | $444.97 | $435.26 | 445 | 435/445/445/455 | $5.4600 | $7.3600 | $-7,600 | +$52,520 |
| 2024-04-08 | 2024-04-12 | $441.49 | $445.48 | 441 | 431/441/441/451 | $6.4400 | $5.2000 | +$4,960 | +$57,480 |
| 2024-04-15 | 2024-04-19 | $442.11 | $423.38 | 442 | 432/442/442/452 | $6.1600 | $9.2400 | $-12,320 | +$45,160 |
| 2024-04-29 | 2024-05-03 | $433.36 | $426.92 | 433 | 423/433/433/443 | $6.5200 | $5.8600 | +$2,640 | +$47,800 |
| 2024-05-06 | 2024-05-10 | $437.28 | $441.07 | 437 | 427/437/437/447 | $5.6200 | $4.8300 | +$3,160 | +$50,960 |
| 2024-05-13 | 2024-05-17 | $444.03 | $451.96 | 444 | 434/444/444/454 | $5.8700 | $7.4400 | $-6,280 | +$44,680 |
| 2024-05-20 | 2024-05-24 | $451.98 | $453.76 | 452 | 442/452/452/462 | $5.9500 | $3.2900 | +$10,640 | +$55,320 |
| 2024-06-03 | 2024-06-07 | $454.71 | $463.41 | 455 | 445/455/455/465 | $5.8000 | $7.5700 | $-7,080 | +$48,240 |
| 2024-06-10 | 2024-06-14 | $461.84 | $476.66 | 462 | 452/462/462/472 | $6.6300 | $9.8900 | $-13,040 | +$35,200 |
| 2024-06-17 | 2024-06-21 | $479.39 | $481.44 | 479 | 469/479/479/489 | $5.3200 | $4.2000 | +$4,480 | +$39,680 |
| 2024-06-24 | 2024-06-28 | $478.18 | $481.58 | 478 | 468/478/478/488 | $6.1100 | $5.1000 | +$4,040 | +$43,720 |
| 2024-07-01 | 2024-07-05 | $479.86 | $496.23 | 480 | 470/480/480/490 | $5.4700 | $8.2050 | $-10,940 | +$32,780 |
| 2024-07-08 | 2024-07-12 | $496.43 | $491.90 | 496 | 486/496/496/506 | $5.7900 | $4.4600 | +$5,320 | +$38,100 |
| 2024-07-15 | 2024-07-19 | $496.69 | $479.44 | 497 | 487/497/497/507 | $6.1600 | $9.2400 | $-12,320 | +$25,780 |
| 2024-08-26 | 2024-08-30 | $479.52 | $470.79 | 480 | 470/480/480/490 | $7.1200 | $6.9100 | +$840 | +$26,620 |
| 2024-09-23 | 2024-09-27 | $482.91 | $489.36 | 483 | 473/483/483/493 | $6.2300 | $6.6800 | $-1,800 | +$24,820 |
| 2024-09-30 | 2024-10-04 | $485.77 | $481.57 | 486 | 476/486/486/496 | $7.0600 | $5.2200 | +$7,360 | +$32,180 |
| 2024-10-07 | 2024-10-11 | $485.41 | $492.62 | 485 | 475/485/485/495 | $7.0500 | $7.3000 | $-1,000 | +$31,180 |
| 2024-10-14 | 2024-10-18 | $495.75 | $491.37 | 496 | 486/496/496/506 | $5.8500 | $4.1200 | +$6,920 | +$38,100 |
| 2024-10-21 | 2024-10-25 | $493.48 | $492.30 | 493 | 483/493/493/503 | $5.8700 | $3.3600 | +$10,040 | +$48,140 |
| 2024-10-28 | 2024-11-01 | $498.46 | $483.85 | 498 | 488/498/498/508 | $7.2400 | $8.4200 | $-4,720 | +$43,420 |
| 2024-11-18 | 2024-11-22 | $498.15 | $504.98 | 498 | 488/498/498/508 | $7.4900 | $7.1600 | +$1,320 | +$44,740 |
| 2024-11-25 | 2024-11-29 | $509.87 | $509.74 | 510 | 500/510/510/520 | $5.3700 | $0.4100 | +$19,840 | +$64,580 |
| 2024-12-02 | 2024-12-06 | $511.03 | $521.89 | 511 | 501/511/511/521 | $5.9000 | $8.8500 | $-11,800 | +$52,780 |
| 2024-12-09 | 2024-12-13 | $525.52 | $526.69 | 526 | 516/526/526/536 | $5.7000 | $3.5900 | +$8,440 | +$61,220 |
| 2024-12-16 | 2024-12-20 | $533.02 | $514.18 | 533 | 523/533/533/543 | $6.1000 | $9.1500 | $-12,200 | +$49,020 |
| 2024-12-30 | 2025-01-03 | $515.46 | $510.33 | 515 | 505/515/515/525 | $7.1200 | $5.2100 | +$7,640 | +$56,660 |
| 2025-01-06 | 2025-01-10 | $524.18 | $507.18 | 524 | 514/524/524/534 | $6.6800 | $10.0200 | $-13,360 | +$43,300 |
| 2025-02-10 | 2025-02-14 | $527.28 | $535.88 | 527 | 517/527/527/537 | $7.0300 | $7.8500 | $-3,280 | +$40,020 |
| 2025-02-24 | 2025-02-28 | $527.50 | $500.33 | 528 | 518/528/528/538 | $7.2000 | $10.0400 | $-11,360 | +$28,660 |
| 2025-03-24 | 2025-03-28 | $487.55 | $481.51 | 488 | 478/488/488/498 | $7.3900 | $5.7200 | +$6,680 | +$35,340 |
| 2025-05-19 | 2025-05-23 | $514.36 | $514.07 | 514 | 504/514/514/524 | $7.3000 | $4.3700 | +$11,720 | +$47,060 |
| 2025-06-02 | 2025-06-06 | $517.51 | $524.84 | 518 | 508/518/518/528 | $7.1100 | $6.9700 | +$560 | +$47,620 |
| 2025-06-09 | 2025-06-13 | $530.13 | $533.63 | 530 | 520/530/530/540 | $6.7400 | $4.9800 | +$7,040 | +$54,660 |
| 2025-06-16 | 2025-06-20 | $530.57 | $526.74 | 531 | 521/531/531/541 | $6.6500 | $3.8100 | +$11,360 | +$66,020 |
| 2025-06-23 | 2025-06-27 | $526.63 | $546.28 | 527 | 517/527/527/537 | $6.7700 | $10.1550 | $-13,540 | +$52,480 |
| 2025-07-07 | 2025-07-11 | $553.56 | $555.37 | 554 | 544/554/554/564 | $6.4900 | $3.1900 | +$13,200 | +$65,680 |
| 2025-07-14 | 2025-07-18 | $553.99 | $561.73 | 554 | 544/554/554/564 | $6.3700 | $7.5800 | $-4,840 | +$60,840 |
| 2025-07-21 | 2025-07-25 | $562.13 | $565.11 | 562 | 552/562/562/572 | $5.7400 | $4.4500 | +$5,160 | +$66,000 |
| 2025-08-04 | 2025-08-08 | $559.11 | $569.22 | 559 | 549/559/559/569 | $7.1200 | $8.1200 | $-4,000 | +$62,000 |
| 2025-08-11 | 2025-08-15 | $574.74 | $579.87 | 575 | 565/575/575/585 | $6.3000 | $5.1100 | +$4,760 | +$66,760 |
| 2025-08-18 | 2025-08-22 | $576.46 | $563.39 | 576 | 566/576/576/586 | $6.1400 | $8.9700 | $-11,320 | +$55,440 |
| 2025-08-25 | 2025-08-29 | $570.45 | $577.05 | 570 | 560/570/570/580 | $6.8800 | $7.2100 | $-1,320 | +$54,120 |
| 2025-09-08 | 2025-09-12 | $578.47 | $584.08 | 578 | 568/578/578/588 | $6.4300 | $6.5100 | $-320 | +$53,800 |
| 2025-09-15 | 2025-09-19 | $588.46 | $595.37 | 588 | 578/588/588/598 | $6.1400 | $7.5600 | $-5,680 | +$48,120 |
| 2025-09-22 | 2025-09-26 | $597.77 | $593.37 | 598 | 588/598/598/608 | $6.1800 | $4.6800 | +$6,000 | +$54,120 |
| 2025-09-29 | 2025-10-03 | $599.14 | $605.77 | 599 | 589/599/599/609 | $6.4500 | $7.1800 | $-2,920 | +$51,200 |
| 2025-10-06 | 2025-10-10 | $608.43 | $610.74 | 608 | 598/608/608/618 | $6.1700 | $4.2400 | +$7,720 | +$58,920 |
| 2025-10-20 | 2025-10-24 | $607.12 | $610.46 | 607 | 597/607/607/617 | $7.2000 | $5.9300 | +$5,080 | +$64,000 |
| 2025-10-27 | 2025-10-31 | $624.50 | $625.99 | 624 | 614/624/624/634 | $7.1500 | $6.3300 | +$3,280 | +$67,280 |
| 2025-11-03 | 2025-11-07 | $635.23 | $611.69 | 635 | 625/635/635/645 | $7.0500 | $9.8300 | $-11,120 | +$56,160 |
| 2025-12-01 | 2025-12-05 | $613.70 | $622.91 | 614 | 604/614/614/624 | $7.4100 | $7.7600 | $-1,400 | +$54,760 |
| 2025-12-08 | 2025-12-12 | $627.11 | $625.61 | 627 | 617/627/627/637 | $7.4400 | $4.3700 | +$12,280 | +$67,040 |
| 2025-12-15 | 2025-12-19 | $618.25 | $609.15 | 618 | 608/618/618/628 | $7.4800 | $7.1800 | +$1,200 | +$68,240 |
| 2025-12-22 | 2025-12-26 | $621.38 | $623.87 | 621 | 611/621/621/631 | $5.7200 | $2.8900 | +$11,320 | +$79,560 |
| 2025-12-29 | 2026-01-02 | $620.13 | $613.08 | 620 | 610/620/620/630 | $6.0400 | $6.9900 | $-3,800 | +$75,760 |
| 2026-01-05 | 2026-01-09 | $619.32 | $620.43 | 619 | 609/619/619/629 | $7.2000 | $5.1800 | +$8,080 | +$83,840 |
| 2026-05-04 | 2026-05-08 | $674.67 | $694.93 | 675 | 665/675/675/685 | $7.4500 | $9.6600 | $-8,840 | +$75,000 |
| 2026-06-01 | 2026-06-05 | $737.30 | $740.50 | 737 | 727/737/737/747 | $6.9300 | $5.8800 | +$4,200 | +$79,200 |
| 2026-08-17 | 2026-08-21 | $732.95 | $710.93 | 733 | 723/733/733/743 | $6.9900 | $10.4850 | $-13,980 | +$65,220 |
| 2026-08-31 | 2026-09-04 | $714.78 | $717.67 | 715 | 705/715/715/725 | $7.1900 | $5.0700 | +$8,480 | +$73,700 |