Weekly Options Backtest — Performance Summary & Analysis
| Leg | Strike | Action | Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| Long Put | ATM − $10 | Buy | Lower wing — defines max loss on downside |
| Short Put | ATM | Sell | ATM body — highest premium collection |
| Short Call | ATM | Sell | ATM body — highest premium collection |
| Long Call | ATM + $10 | Buy | Upper wing — defines max loss on upside |
| Net credit at open | Max profit = credit × 100 × 11 (TSLA pins exactly at ATM) |
| TSLA moves more than $20 from ATM | Max loss = ($20 − credit) × 100 × 11 |
| Avg net credit collected | $12.1913 / share (61.0% of wing width) |
| Average winner | +$3,819 |
| Average loser | $-3,845 |
| Best trade | +$6,677 (2025-08-11) |
| Worst trade | $-6,930 (2024-11-04) |
| Total gross wins | +$53,471 |
| Total gross losses | $-65,368 |
| Metric | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Avg max profit / trade | $13,410 | Net credit × 100 × 40 |
| Avg max loss / trade | $8,590 | ($10 wing − credit) × 100 × 40 |
| Max drawdown | $25,399 | Peak-to-trough cumulative equity |
| Best single trade | +$6,677 | 2025-08-11 open |
| Worst single trade | $-6,930 | 2024-11-04 open |
Total P&L of $-11,896 over 31 trades. The iron butterfly requires TSLA to stay near ATM — TSLA high volatility repeatedly moved beyond the +/-$20 wings.
At 45.2%, the iron butterfly won less than half of trades. TSLA elevated intraday and weekly volatility makes ATM placement challenging — consider widening wings further.
Unlike an iron condor, the iron butterfly sells the ATM straddle, collecting much higher premium but requiring TSLA to pin near ATM to profit. Any Monday-to-Thursday move beyond ~$12.19/share erodes the position. The $20 wing creates a defined but limited buffer.
The TSLA (Tesla) experienced significant volatility over this period, including AI-driven rallies, rate uncertainty, and macro events. TSLA tends to move significantly on a weekly basis, making ATM butterflies particularly vulnerable to large weekly swings.
All pricing uses real OPRA daily bar data from Alpaca. No commissions, slippage, or pin risk modelled. Stop-loss (50% of max profit) is checked at each Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday daily close and capped at the threshold value — intraday triggers in the live script may exit at a better price than shown here.
📋 Full Trade Log is not displayed on mobile devices to prevent page freezing. View this report on a desktop browser to see all 31 trades.
| Open Date | Expiry | QQQ Open | QQQ Close | ATM | LP / SP / SC / LC | Credit Open | Credit Close | P&L | Cum P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-11 | 2024-03-15 | $175.37 | $162.51 | 175 | 155/175/175/195 | $8.6400 | $12.3600 | $-4,092 | $-4,092 |
| 2024-03-18 | 2024-03-22 | $170.09 | $172.77 | 170 | 150/170/170/190 | $8.3200 | $3.9400 | +$4,818 | +$726 |
| 2024-04-15 | 2024-04-19 | $170.19 | $149.89 | 170 | 150/170/170/190 | $7.2800 | $10.9200 | $-4,004 | $-3,278 |
| 2024-05-13 | 2024-05-17 | $169.98 | $174.86 | 170 | 150/170/170/190 | $6.8500 | $5.3300 | +$1,672 | $-1,606 |
| 2024-06-24 | 2024-06-28 | $184.91 | $197.41 | 185 | 165/185/185/205 | $7.2500 | $10.8750 | $-3,988 | $-5,594 |
| 2024-07-29 | 2024-08-02 | $224.91 | $216.94 | 225 | 205/225/225/245 | $10.0500 | $8.7600 | +$1,419 | $-4,174 |
| 2024-10-14 | 2024-10-18 | $220.13 | $220.88 | 220 | 200/220/220/240 | $9.9300 | $4.0300 | +$6,490 | +$2,316 |
| 2024-10-28 | 2024-11-01 | $269.96 | $249.82 | 270 | 250/270/270/290 | $11.9900 | $17.3800 | $-5,929 | $-3,614 |
| 2024-11-04 | 2024-11-08 | $244.55 | $297.01 | 245 | 225/245/245/265 | $12.6000 | $18.9000 | $-6,930 | $-10,544 |
| 2024-11-25 | 2024-11-29 | $360.50 | $345.13 | 360 | 340/360/360/380 | $13.9500 | $14.9900 | $-1,144 | $-11,688 |
| 2025-01-27 | 2025-01-31 | $394.65 | $400.17 | 395 | 375/395/395/415 | $16.2500 | $11.4100 | +$5,324 | $-6,364 |
| 2025-03-17 | 2025-03-21 | $245.01 | $236.25 | 245 | 225/245/245/265 | $13.3300 | $10.0700 | +$3,586 | $-2,778 |
| 2025-04-21 | 2025-04-25 | $230.30 | $259.51 | 230 | 210/230/230/250 | $14.7200 | $18.5800 | $-4,246 | $-7,024 |
| 2025-05-05 | 2025-05-09 | $284.57 | $284.94 | 285 | 265/285/285/305 | $13.3200 | $7.5000 | +$6,402 | $-622 |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-07-11 | $319.74 | $315.22 | 320 | 300/320/320/340 | $14.6500 | $12.8700 | +$1,958 | +$1,336 |
| 2025-08-11 | 2025-08-15 | $334.68 | $335.67 | 335 | 315/335/335/355 | $12.0200 | $5.9500 | +$6,677 | +$8,014 |
| 2025-08-18 | 2025-08-22 | $329.86 | $320.08 | 330 | 310/330/330/350 | $11.5800 | $10.4400 | +$1,254 | +$9,268 |
| 2025-09-08 | 2025-09-12 | $354.94 | $368.85 | 355 | 335/355/355/375 | $12.1000 | $12.8600 | $-836 | +$8,432 |
| 2025-10-27 | 2025-10-31 | $439.82 | $440.06 | 440 | 420/440/440/460 | $14.1000 | $9.4900 | +$5,071 | +$13,502 |
| 2025-11-10 | 2025-11-14 | $439.63 | $401.94 | 440 | 420/440/440/460 | $13.5500 | $19.5000 | $-6,545 | +$6,958 |
| 2025-12-01 | 2025-12-05 | $425.30 | $454.60 | 425 | 405/425/425/445 | $13.5300 | $18.5200 | $-5,489 | +$1,468 |
| 2025-12-15 | 2025-12-19 | $469.50 | $483.31 | 470 | 450/470/470/490 | $14.1500 | $13.1600 | +$1,089 | +$2,558 |
| 2025-12-22 | 2025-12-26 | $489.88 | $475.16 | 490 | 470/490/490/510 | $12.6500 | $14.7800 | $-2,343 | +$214 |
| 2026-01-26 | 2026-01-30 | $444.89 | $416.42 | 445 | 425/445/445/465 | $15.6500 | $18.5400 | $-3,179 | $-2,964 |
| 2026-02-09 | 2026-02-13 | $409.93 | $417.07 | 410 | 390/410/410/430 | $13.2800 | $10.4600 | +$3,102 | +$138 |
| 2026-03-02 | 2026-03-06 | $390.29 | $405.59 | 390 | 370/390/390/410 | $12.6600 | $14.7300 | $-2,277 | $-2,140 |
| 2026-03-09 | 2026-03-13 | $389.92 | $395.03 | 390 | 370/390/390/410 | $13.4300 | $9.2400 | +$4,609 | +$2,470 |
| 2026-04-13 | 2026-04-17 | $350.06 | $388.77 | 350 | 330/350/350/370 | $11.4000 | $17.1000 | $-6,270 | $-3,800 |
| 2026-05-04 | 2026-05-08 | $389.99 | $411.82 | 390 | 370/390/390/410 | $12.7400 | $16.5900 | $-4,235 | $-8,036 |
| 2026-06-22 | 2026-06-26 | $394.92 | $375.12 | 395 | 375/395/395/415 | $12.8700 | $16.2400 | $-3,707 | $-11,742 |
| 2026-07-13 | 2026-07-17 | $404.61 | $391.02 | 405 | 385/405/405/425 | $13.0900 | $13.2300 | $-154 | $-11,896 |