| Rule | Parameter | Action | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Min Credit | $0.60 | Skip trade | Bad risk/reward when premium is insufficient |
| Max Credit | >$2.00 | Skip trade | High-IV regime — elevated IV means elevated realized vol; wings get breached |
| Profit Target | ≤30% remaining | Close Wednesday | Lock in 70%+ of credit; avoid Thursday event risk |
| Stop Loss | ≥200% of open | Close Wednesday | Cap losses at 1× credit before full max-loss |
| Trend Filter | |5-day ret| > 4% | Skip trade | Iron condors underperform in strongly trending markets |
| Prior Realized Move | |Mon–Thu| > 3% | Skip trade | Prior-week vol expansion — same regime likely persists into current week |
| Leg | Strike | Action | Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| Long Put | ATM − $15 | Buy | Outer put wing — defines max loss on downside |
| Short Put | ATM − $10 | Sell | Inner put wing — collects premium |
| Short Call | ATM + $10 | Sell | Inner call wing — collects premium |
| Long Call | ATM + $15 | Buy | Outer call wing — defines max loss on upside |
| Net credit at open | Max profit = credit × 100 × 40 |
| Spread breached (QQQ moves >$10) | Max loss = ($5 − credit) × 100 × 40 |
| Avg net credit collected | $1.2108 / share (8.1% of wing width) |
| Exit Type | Count | % of Trades | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| THU | 47 | 77.0% | Held to Thursday close — normal exit |
| ✓ PT | 6 | 9.8% | Profit target hit Wednesday — ≥70% of credit captured |
| ✗ SL | 8 | 13.1% | Stop loss hit Wednesday — credit doubled, exit to limit loss |
| Average winner | +$3,422 |
| Average loser | $-8,253 |
| Best trade | +$6,200 (2025-05-05) |
| Worst trade | $-16,080 (2024-12-16) |
| Total gross wins | +$157,400 |
| Total gross losses | $-123,800 |
| Metric | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Avg max profit / trade | $4,843 | Net credit × 100 × 40 |
| Avg max loss / trade | $15,157 | ($5 wing − credit) × 100 × 40 |
| Max drawdown | $51,120 | Peak-to-trough cumulative equity |
| Best single trade | +$6,200 | 2025-05-05 open |
| Worst single trade | $-16,080 | 2024-12-16 open |
Total P&L of +$33,600 over 61 trades across 3 years (2023–2025). The v3 regime filters (MAX_CREDIT + prior Mon–Thu move) identified and avoided the high-IV cluster that drove Dec 2024–Mar 2025 losses, turning a losing strategy into a winner.
Two patterns drove the worst drawdown: (1) credits >$2.00 signal elevated implied vol — realized vol tends to match, breaching the ±$10 short wings. (2) When QQQ moved >3% Mon→Thu the prior week, that vol regime typically persists into the current week. Both filters are now applied at entry.
6 trades exited early on Wednesday for profit (9.8%), locking in ≥70% of premium and avoiding Thursday event risk. 8 trades triggered the stop loss (13.1%), capping losses at approximately 1× the original credit received.
Iron condors typically target win rates of 60–80% as a net-credit strategy. A 75.4% result is consistent with this expectation.
QQQ gained substantially over this 3-year window driven by the AI investment cycle. The MAX_CREDIT and prior-move filters proxy for these regime shifts. Consider wider short spreads (±$15) to further reduce wing-breach frequency.
Management rules use Wednesday daily bar close prices (not intraday). Real-world execution at the Wednesday stop-loss level may differ. No commissions, slippage, pin risk, or early-exercise risk modelled.
📋 Full Trade Log is not displayed on mobile devices to prevent page freezing. View this report on a desktop browser to see all 61 trades.
| Open Date | Close Date | Exit | Expiry | S Open | S Close | ATM | LP / SP / SC / LC | Credit Open | Credit Close | P&L | Cum P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-01-29 | 2024-02-01 | THU | 2024-02-02 | $424.23 | $422.07 | 425 | 410/415/435/440 | $1.1100 | $0.0800 | +$4,120 | +$4,120 |
| 2024-02-05 | 2024-02-07 | ✓ PT | 2024-02-09 | $429.02 | $432.79 | 430 | 415/420/440/445 | $0.6700 | $0.2000 | +$1,880 | +$6,000 |
| 2024-02-12 | 2024-02-15 | THU | 2024-02-16 | $436.70 | $434.48 | 435 | 420/425/445/450 | $0.7600 | $0.0500 | +$2,840 | +$8,840 |
| 2024-02-26 | 2024-02-29 | THU | 2024-03-01 | $437.64 | $439.11 | 440 | 425/430/450/455 | $0.7100 | $0.0400 | +$2,680 | +$11,520 |
| 2024-03-04 | 2024-03-07 | THU | 2024-03-08 | $445.55 | $445.53 | 445 | 430/435/455/460 | $0.7800 | $0.1600 | +$2,480 | +$14,000 |
| 2024-03-11 | 2024-03-14 | THU | 2024-03-15 | $437.23 | $439.13 | 435 | 420/425/445/450 | $1.4200 | $0.1600 | +$5,040 | +$19,040 |
| 2024-03-18 | 2024-03-21 | THU | 2024-03-22 | $438.86 | $445.79 | 440 | 425/430/450/455 | $1.3100 | $0.2400 | +$4,280 | +$23,320 |
| 2024-03-25 | 2024-03-28 | THU | 2024-04-05 | $443.36 | $444.09 | 445 | 430/435/455/460 | $1.2800 | $0.6500 | +$2,520 | +$25,840 |
| 2024-04-08 | 2024-04-11 | THU | 2024-04-12 | $441.49 | $445.48 | 440 | 425/430/450/455 | $1.0500 | $0.2500 | +$3,200 | +$29,040 |
| 2024-04-15 | 2024-04-17 | ✗ SL | 2024-04-19 | $442.11 | $423.38 | 440 | 425/430/450/455 | $0.9700 | $2.7400 | $-7,080 | +$21,960 |
| 2024-04-29 | 2024-05-01 | ✗ SL | 2024-05-03 | $433.36 | $426.92 | 435 | 420/425/445/450 | $1.2200 | $2.5100 | $-5,160 | +$16,800 |
| 2024-05-06 | 2024-05-09 | THU | 2024-05-10 | $437.28 | $441.07 | 435 | 420/425/445/450 | $0.7500 | $0.1600 | +$2,360 | +$19,160 |
| 2024-05-13 | 2024-05-16 | THU | 2024-05-17 | $444.03 | $451.96 | 445 | 430/435/455/460 | $0.7400 | $0.2600 | +$1,920 | +$21,080 |
| 2024-05-20 | 2024-05-23 | THU | 2024-05-24 | $451.98 | $453.76 | 450 | 435/440/460/465 | $0.8300 | $0.0500 | +$3,120 | +$24,200 |
| 2024-06-10 | 2024-06-12 | ✗ SL | 2024-06-14 | $461.84 | $476.66 | 460 | 445/450/470/475 | $1.2200 | $3.1700 | $-7,800 | +$16,400 |
| 2024-06-24 | 2024-06-26 | ✓ PT | 2024-06-28 | $478.18 | $481.58 | 480 | 465/470/490/495 | $0.9000 | $0.2500 | +$2,600 | +$19,000 |
| 2024-07-15 | 2024-07-17 | ✗ SL | 2024-07-19 | $496.69 | $479.44 | 495 | 480/485/505/510 | $1.0300 | $2.5600 | $-6,120 | +$12,880 |
| 2024-08-26 | 2024-08-29 | THU | 2024-08-30 | $479.52 | $470.79 | 480 | 465/470/490/495 | $1.6700 | $1.0300 | +$2,560 | +$15,440 |
| 2024-09-23 | 2024-09-25 | ✓ PT | 2024-09-27 | $482.91 | $489.36 | 485 | 470/475/495/500 | $1.1100 | $0.3300 | +$3,120 | +$18,560 |
| 2024-09-30 | 2024-10-03 | THU | 2024-10-04 | $485.77 | $481.57 | 485 | 470/475/495/500 | $1.5500 | $0.5700 | +$3,920 | +$22,480 |
| 2024-10-07 | 2024-10-10 | THU | 2024-10-11 | $485.41 | $492.62 | 485 | 470/475/495/500 | $1.3800 | $0.7400 | +$2,560 | +$25,040 |
| 2024-10-14 | 2024-10-17 | THU | 2024-10-18 | $495.75 | $491.37 | 495 | 480/485/505/510 | $0.8500 | $0.1700 | +$2,720 | +$27,760 |
| 2024-10-21 | 2024-10-24 | THU | 2024-10-25 | $493.48 | $492.30 | 495 | 480/485/505/510 | $0.7300 | $0.1400 | +$2,360 | +$30,120 |
| 2024-10-28 | 2024-10-31 | THU | 2024-11-01 | $498.46 | $483.85 | 500 | 485/490/510/515 | $1.4400 | $3.0000 | $-6,240 | +$23,880 |
| 2024-11-18 | 2024-11-21 | THU | 2024-11-22 | $498.15 | $504.98 | 500 | 485/490/510/515 | $1.5900 | $0.3200 | +$5,080 | +$28,960 |
| 2024-12-02 | 2024-12-04 | ✗ SL | 2024-12-06 | $511.03 | $521.89 | 510 | 495/500/520/525 | $0.7900 | $2.9200 | $-8,520 | +$20,440 |
| 2024-12-09 | 2024-12-12 | THU | 2024-12-13 | $525.52 | $526.69 | 525 | 510/515/535/540 | $0.7500 | $0.0500 | +$2,800 | +$23,240 |
| 2024-12-16 | 2024-12-18 | ✗ SL | 2024-12-20 | $533.02 | $514.18 | 535 | 520/525/545/550 | $0.8400 | $4.8600 | $-16,080 | +$7,160 |
| 2024-12-30 | 2025-01-02 | THU | 2025-01-03 | $515.46 | $510.33 | 515 | 500/505/525/530 | $1.2800 | $0.5600 | +$2,880 | +$10,040 |
| 2025-01-06 | 2025-01-10 | THU | 2025-01-10 | $524.18 | $507.18 | 525 | 510/515/535/540 | $1.1600 | $5.1500 | $-15,960 | $-5,920 |
| 2025-02-24 | 2025-02-27 | THU | 2025-02-28 | $527.50 | $500.33 | 530 | 515/520/540/545 | $1.5200 | $5.2900 | $-15,080 | $-21,000 |
| 2025-03-24 | 2025-03-27 | THU | 2025-03-28 | $487.55 | $481.51 | 490 | 475/480/500/505 | $1.7500 | $1.2200 | +$2,120 | $-18,880 |
| 2025-05-05 | 2025-05-08 | THU | 2025-05-09 | $484.67 | $488.16 | 485 | 470/475/495/500 | $1.9300 | $0.3800 | +$6,200 | $-12,680 |
| 2025-05-19 | 2025-05-22 | THU | 2025-05-23 | $514.36 | $514.07 | 515 | 500/505/525/530 | $1.7100 | $0.3100 | +$5,600 | $-7,080 |
| 2025-06-02 | 2025-06-05 | THU | 2025-06-06 | $517.51 | $524.84 | 520 | 505/510/530/535 | $1.7400 | $0.8000 | +$3,760 | $-3,320 |
| 2025-06-09 | 2025-06-12 | THU | 2025-06-13 | $530.13 | $533.63 | 530 | 515/520/540/545 | $1.3400 | $0.1200 | +$4,880 | +$1,560 |
| 2025-06-16 | 2025-06-20 | THU | 2025-06-20 | $530.57 | $526.74 | 530 | 515/520/540/545 | $1.1900 | $0.0000 | +$4,760 | +$6,320 |
| 2025-06-23 | 2025-06-25 | ✗ SL | 2025-06-27 | $526.63 | $546.28 | 525 | 510/515/535/540 | $1.5600 | $3.8100 | $-9,000 | $-2,680 |
| 2025-07-07 | 2025-07-09 | ✓ PT | 2025-07-11 | $553.56 | $555.37 | 555 | 540/545/565/570 | $1.1300 | $0.1900 | +$3,760 | +$1,080 |
| 2025-07-14 | 2025-07-17 | THU | 2025-07-18 | $553.99 | $561.73 | 555 | 540/545/565/570 | $1.0300 | $0.3500 | +$2,720 | +$3,800 |
| 2025-07-21 | 2025-07-24 | THU | 2025-07-25 | $562.13 | $565.11 | 560 | 545/550/570/575 | $0.8800 | $0.1400 | +$2,960 | +$6,760 |
| 2025-07-28 | 2025-07-31 | THU | 2025-08-01 | $567.69 | $565.00 | 570 | 555/560/580/585 | $1.1600 | $0.8500 | +$1,240 | +$8,000 |
| 2025-08-04 | 2025-08-07 | THU | 2025-08-08 | $559.11 | $569.22 | 560 | 545/550/570/575 | $1.2600 | $1.6800 | $-1,680 | +$6,320 |
| 2025-08-11 | 2025-08-14 | THU | 2025-08-15 | $574.74 | $579.87 | 575 | 560/565/585/590 | $1.0600 | $0.1800 | +$3,520 | +$9,840 |
| 2025-08-18 | 2025-08-21 | THU | 2025-08-22 | $576.46 | $563.39 | 575 | 560/565/585/590 | $1.1500 | $1.9000 | $-3,000 | +$6,840 |
| 2025-08-25 | 2025-08-28 | THU | 2025-08-29 | $570.45 | $577.05 | 570 | 555/560/580/585 | $1.3900 | $0.5100 | +$3,520 | +$10,360 |
| 2025-09-08 | 2025-09-11 | THU | 2025-09-12 | $578.47 | $584.08 | 580 | 565/570/590/595 | $0.9400 | $0.1300 | +$3,240 | +$13,600 |
| 2025-09-15 | 2025-09-18 | THU | 2025-09-19 | $588.46 | $595.37 | 590 | 575/580/600/605 | $0.8800 | $0.4000 | +$1,920 | +$15,520 |
| 2025-09-22 | 2025-09-25 | THU | 2025-09-26 | $597.77 | $593.37 | 600 | 585/590/610/615 | $0.9100 | $0.7100 | +$800 | +$16,320 |
| 2025-09-29 | 2025-10-02 | THU | 2025-10-03 | $599.14 | $605.77 | 600 | 585/590/610/615 | $1.1400 | $0.2800 | +$3,440 | +$19,760 |
| 2025-10-06 | 2025-10-08 | ✓ PT | 2025-10-10 | $608.43 | $610.74 | 610 | 595/600/620/625 | $1.0700 | $0.2500 | +$3,280 | +$23,040 |
| 2025-10-27 | 2025-10-30 | THU | 2025-10-31 | $624.50 | $625.99 | 625 | 610/615/635/640 | $1.6800 | $0.6800 | +$4,000 | +$27,040 |
| 2025-11-03 | 2025-11-06 | THU | 2025-11-07 | $635.23 | $611.69 | 635 | 620/625/645/650 | $1.5800 | $5.0300 | $-13,800 | +$13,240 |
| 2025-12-15 | 2025-12-18 | THU | 2025-12-19 | $618.25 | $609.15 | 620 | 605/610/630/635 | $1.7900 | $2.0800 | $-1,160 | +$12,080 |
| 2025-12-22 | 2025-12-24 | ✓ PT | 2025-12-26 | $621.38 | $623.87 | 620 | 605/610/630/635 | $0.7100 | $0.0600 | +$2,600 | +$14,680 |
| 2025-12-29 | 2026-01-02 | THU | 2026-01-02 | $620.13 | $613.08 | 620 | 605/610/630/635 | $0.8300 | $0.0000 | +$3,320 | +$18,000 |
| 2026-01-05 | 2026-01-08 | THU | 2026-01-09 | $619.32 | $620.43 | 620 | 605/610/630/635 | $1.5300 | $0.2700 | +$5,040 | +$23,040 |
| 2026-01-12 | 2026-01-15 | THU | 2026-01-16 | $622.33 | $621.66 | 620 | 605/610/630/635 | $1.7100 | $0.2100 | +$6,000 | +$29,040 |
| 2026-01-26 | 2026-01-29 | THU | 2026-01-30 | $623.19 | $629.36 | 625 | 610/615/635/640 | $1.9300 | $0.5500 | +$5,520 | +$34,560 |
| 2026-08-17 | 2026-08-19 | ✗ SL | 2026-08-21 | $732.95 | $710.93 | 735 | 720/725/745/750 | $1.6300 | $3.4100 | $-7,120 | +$27,440 |
| 2026-08-31 | 2026-09-03 | THU | 2026-09-04 | $714.78 | $717.67 | 715 | 700/705/725/730 | $1.8400 | $0.3000 | +$6,160 | +$33,600 |