Weekly Options Backtest — Performance Summary & Analysis
| Buy call @ 1.02× price (lower strike) | Pay premium — long leg, bullish |
| Sell call @ 1.05× price (higher strike) | Collect premium — caps max profit |
| Net debit paid at open | Max loss = debit × 100 × qty |
| Profits when XLK rises above long call strike | Max profit = (width − debit) × 100 × qty |
| Average winner | +$2,046 |
| Average loser | $-785 |
| Best trade | +$4,490 (2025-11-24) |
| Worst trade | $-2,110 (2025-03-31) |
| Total gross wins | +$28,650 |
| Total gross losses | $-15,700 |
| Metric | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Risk per trade (max) | $1,039 avg | Net debit paid — defined risk |
| Max profit per trade | $6,461 avg | Width minus debit |
| Max drawdown | $7,610 | Peak-to-trough cumulative |
| Best single trade | +$4,490 | 2025-11-24 open |
| Worst single trade | $-2,110 | 2025-03-31 open |
Total P&L of +$12,950 over 34 trades — the bullish directional bias aligned with XLK's 2025 performance.
Only 41.2% win rate. A payoff ratio of 2.61x must compensate — check whether winners outsize losers sufficiently.
The debit paid is the maximum loss per trade. Multiple losing weeks can erode capital quickly. Directional accuracy is required to generate a profit with this structure.
XLK tracks large-cap tech. Macro sensitivity (rates, AI earnings cycles) can cause sharp intraweek reversals that hurt a Mon–Thu hold window even in a broadly bullish year.
All pricing uses real OPRA options bar data from Alpaca (feed=opra). Entry = Monday bar open; Exit = Thursday bar close. No commissions, slippage, pin risk, or early-exercise risk are modelled. Actual results will differ.
| Open Date | Close Date | Expiry | S Open | S Close | Long K / Short K | Width | Net Debit | Close Value | P&L | Cum P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-13 | 2025-01-16 | 2025-01-17 | $225.25 | $230.50 | 230 / 235 | 5 | $1.1400 | $1.3300 | +$190 | +$190 |
| 2025-01-27 | 2025-01-30 | 2025-01-31 | $228.60 | $232.03 | 235 / 240 | 5 | $0.5900 | $0.3300 | $-260 | $-70 |
| 2025-02-03 | 2025-02-06 | 2025-02-07 | $225.85 | $234.84 | 230 / 235 | 5 | $0.9400 | $3.9600 | +$3,020 | +$2,950 |
| 2025-02-10 | 2025-02-13 | 2025-02-14 | $234.75 | $239.17 | 240 / 245 | 5 | $0.5700 | $0.4500 | $-120 | +$2,830 |
| 2025-02-24 | 2025-02-27 | 2025-02-28 | $235.56 | $222.53 | 240 / 245 | 5 | $0.9300 | $0.0100 | $-920 | +$1,910 |
| 2025-03-03 | 2025-03-06 | 2025-03-07 | $226.92 | $215.35 | 230 / 240 | 10 | $1.3200 | $0.0200 | $-1,300 | +$610 |
| 2025-03-10 | 2025-03-13 | 2025-03-14 | $214.13 | $207.79 | 220 / 225 | 5 | $1.2600 | $-0.0100 | $-1,270 | $-660 |
| 2025-03-17 | 2025-03-20 | 2025-03-21 | $213.68 | $213.36 | 220 / 225 | 5 | $0.7400 | $0.0700 | $-670 | $-1,330 |
| 2025-03-24 | 2025-03-27 | 2025-03-28 | $217.10 | $211.44 | 220 / 230 | 10 | $1.2500 | $0.0300 | $-1,220 | $-2,550 |
| 2025-03-31 | 2025-04-03 | 2025-04-04 | $202.82 | $195.15 | 205 / 215 | 10 | $2.2100 | $0.1000 | $-2,110 | $-4,660 |
| 2025-04-07 | 2025-04-10 | 2025-04-11 | $174.91 | $194.49 | 180 / 185 | 5 | $1.6800 | $3.4400 | +$1,760 | $-2,900 |
| 2025-04-21 | 2025-04-24 | 2025-04-25 | $189.87 | $205.42 | 195 / 200 | 5 | $1.0100 | $3.0800 | +$2,070 | $-830 |
| 2025-04-28 | 2025-05-01 | 2025-05-02 | $208.13 | $213.04 | 210 / 220 | 10 | $2.1800 | $5.0400 | +$2,860 | +$2,030 |
| 2025-05-05 | 2025-05-08 | 2025-05-09 | $214.73 | $217.79 | 220 / 225 | 5 | $0.9900 | $0.4500 | $-540 | +$1,490 |
| 2025-05-12 | 2025-05-15 | 2025-05-16 | $226.77 | $234.51 | 230 / 240 | 10 | $1.0100 | $4.0300 | +$3,020 | +$4,510 |
| 2025-06-02 | 2025-06-05 | 2025-06-06 | $230.49 | $236.10 | 235 / 240 | 5 | $1.0100 | $2.9000 | +$1,890 | +$6,400 |
| 2025-06-09 | 2025-06-12 | 2025-06-13 | $239.19 | $242.52 | 245 / 250 | 5 | $0.4700 | $0.2400 | $-230 | +$6,170 |
| 2025-06-16 | 2025-06-20 | 2025-06-20 | $240.86 | $240.59 | 245 / 255 | 10 | $0.5700 | $-0.0200 | $-590 | +$5,580 |
| 2025-06-23 | 2025-06-26 | 2025-06-27 | $240.14 | $251.00 | 245 / 250 | 5 | $0.9000 | $4.7000 | +$3,800 | +$9,380 |
| 2025-07-14 | 2025-07-17 | 2025-07-18 | $255.29 | $261.02 | 260 / 270 | 10 | $0.3800 | $1.7600 | +$1,380 | +$10,760 |
| 2025-07-28 | 2025-07-31 | 2025-08-01 | $262.92 | $262.61 | 270 / 275 | 5 | $0.2200 | $0.0800 | $-140 | +$10,620 |
| 2025-08-04 | 2025-08-07 | 2025-08-08 | $259.62 | $263.28 | 265 / 275 | 10 | $0.7900 | $0.2600 | $-530 | +$10,090 |
| 2025-08-25 | 2025-08-28 | 2025-08-29 | $262.09 | $266.47 | 265 / 275 | 10 | $1.4500 | $2.2000 | +$750 | +$10,840 |
| 2025-09-15 | 2025-09-18 | 2025-09-19 | $271.25 | $276.11 | 275 / 285 | 10 | $0.8100 | $2.0900 | +$1,280 | +$12,120 |
| 2025-09-29 | 2025-10-02 | 2025-10-03 | $280.50 | $286.30 | 285 / 295 | 10 | $0.8600 | $2.1400 | +$1,280 | +$13,400 |
| 2025-10-13 | 2025-10-16 | 2025-10-17 | $284.81 | $284.60 | 290 / 300 | 10 | $1.0600 | $0.3500 | $-710 | +$12,690 |
| 2025-10-20 | 2025-10-23 | 2025-10-24 | $286.53 | $289.17 | 290 / 300 | 10 | $1.7500 | $1.0300 | $-720 | +$11,970 |
| 2025-10-27 | 2025-10-30 | 2025-10-31 | $297.54 | $300.50 | 305 / 310 | 5 | $0.5300 | $0.2600 | $-270 | +$11,700 |
| 2025-11-10 | 2025-11-13 | 2025-11-14 | $293.35 | $286.61 | 300 / 310 | 10 | $0.5500 | $0.1000 | $-450 | +$11,250 |
| 2025-11-17 | 2025-11-20 | 2025-11-21 | $285.45 | $272.12 | 290 / 300 | 10 | $1.7700 | $0.0400 | $-1,730 | +$9,520 |
| 2025-11-24 | 2025-11-28 | 2025-11-28 | $275.08 | $286.11 | 280 / 290 | 10 | $1.4000 | $5.8900 | +$4,490 | +$14,010 |
| 2025-12-01 | 2025-12-04 | 2025-12-05 | $283.42 | $291.01 | 290 / 300 | 10 | $0.9400 | $1.8000 | +$860 | +$14,870 |
| 2025-12-08 | 2025-12-11 | 2025-12-12 | $147.41 | $148.01 | 150 / 155 | 5 | $0.7700 | $0.1000 | $-670 | +$14,200 |
| 2025-12-15 | 2025-12-18 | 2025-12-19 | $144.57 | $141.52 | 145 / 150 | 5 | $1.2900 | $0.0400 | $-1,250 | +$12,950 |